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The US dollar is not overvalued
It is evident that the market has grown tired of the divergence in monetary policies as a theme driving currencies. The USD has to a significant extent already built in a tightening cycle. The market has paid more attention recently to nuanced shifts away from further policy easing in Europe and some other countries. The USD has fallen despite two rate hikes since December, and reversed most of its ‘Trump bump.’ The market appears in a mood to be looking for a reversion to the mean in exchange rates. However, even though the USD is above its long-run average levels in real effective terms, its overvaluation is ... (full story)
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