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  • How The Fed Convinced Markets It'll Raise Rates this Week

    From bloomberg.com

    Investors see a Federal Reserve rate increase this week as a sure bet, a major shift from the small chance they assigned to a March hike coming out of the central bank's last meeting on Feb. 1. The change came after Fed policy makers launched an aggressive communication campaign, talking markets into the idea that rates would be climbing this month. Here's the timeline of the events that convinced monetary policy-watchers that March 15 will mark the central bank's first rate move of 2017. Feb. 14: Yellen testifies Speaking before the Senate Banking Committee, Chair Janet Yellen said that waiting too long to tighten ... (full story)

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The fed not pending rate hike in march but i see second rate hike maybe in fomc meeting next month
Market will surprise every one....with Fake News
I would worry about the US CPI m/m today 12:30 (UK) . Expectation is 0.00 ???!!
Manufacturers can be surprised by a slackening of demand caused by over supply. That is not true in a service economy. There is no danger of the US service economy overheating. The only reason for raising rates in the US is to make bankers happy. Wall Street might want a hike. Main Street does not. There is no need for Yellen's erroneous historical extrapolation based on a US manufacturing economy as it no longer exists.

I was surprised by a 94% correlation between CPI actual and Forex expectation back to Jan 2007
Easy by telling the medias that they going to raise rate. Next media will write bunch articles that fed will raise rate. Given random % assign to them
Don't fall for the rumors. Keep a clear mind and act accordingly what you see.
Never stop to learn
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