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D-Day for NFP
An upbeat payrolls report will add to expectations that the Fed will raise rates next week (Mar 14-15). Today’s headline print is expected to be high (+197k and +4.7%) given the extremely high ADP employment figures we have seen this week. Any serious deviation to the downside and the U.S bond market will be aggressively unwinding the almost ‘slam dunk’ expectation that fixed income dealers have already priced into the short-end of their treasury curve. Yesterday, ECB President Draghi sent some confusing signals in his rate announcement press conference. While the main message is that the ECB is inching toward ... (full story)