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  • Bitcoin is a Bubble We’ve Seen Before

    From mcoscillator.com

    Most investors remember the 2000 Internet Bubble, which was an example of bubbles for the history books. What is harder is to recognize a replica bubble when it appears again later, especially if it disguises itself. This week’s chart reveals that the price of Bitcoins is replicating the 2000 Nasdaq bubble and its aftermath. But the curious point is that Bitcoin prices are tracing out the dance steps much more quickly. This is a great example of the new and improved “Efficient Market Hypothesis” or EMH. No, it’s not the one you think. The new EMH states that the market now can get a lot more work done in a ... (full story)

I think the problem with Bitcoin is that it is very vulnerable to regulatory damage.
Quoting cliffedwards
I think the problem with Bitcoin is that it is very vulnerable to regulatory damage.
Spoken like a Gent of a certain age Cliff, it's a decentralised cryptocurrency without a host domain, China clamps down it moves elsewhere, further it's now becoming firmly recognised as "The smart peoples currency of choice" i.e. beyond Dumb Central Bankers. Overtime someone has tried to "Control" the price it just comes back stronger. It has been around awhile now, I personally bought in at $87 and am very happy with the investment, I can transfer large funds anywhere in the World virtually for free in a nanosecond , again showing the banking system for what it is... an OLD system run by OLD people for OLD people. The level of disruption being handed to the OLD World order thru' digital technologies is a long way down the road in some industries like music, television & film , but only just starting in the "F.I.R.E" sector, I don't need a banking license if I have the Blockchain App on my phone, it's my very own bank.

Further, all this talk of getting rid of cash and bitcoin because of the amount of fraud ??? I'm sorry, did everyone not notice Deutsche Bank, Barclays, HSBC etc and their criminal behaviour rigging currencies, metals etc/ Not one penny of all their Billions of fraudulent behaviour was done in either cash or Bitcoin !!

The OLD World and it's out of touch OLD people are being handed their lunch by the YOUNG Bitcoin... time they all retired
Quoting NewtonsCash
Spoken like a Gent of a certain age Cliff, it's a decentralised cryptocurrency without a host domain, China clamps down it moves elsewhere, further it's now becoming firmly recognised as "The smart peoples currency of choice" i.e. beyond Dumb Central Bankers. Overtime someone has tried to "Control" the price it just comes back stronger. It has been around awhile now, I personally bought in at $87 and am very happy with the investment, I can transfer large funds anywhere in the World virtually for free in a nanosecond , again showing the banking...
Word!
Bitcoin is here to stay. And the ones who recognize this sooner than later will be very rich very soon.
Sincerely speaking this is like the heat of the moment,hence central banks are in existence any potential treat to how the banking system operates would surely be eliminated, sooner or later.
No matter how high bitcon gets its just artificial,and we know how it would turn out.
I like it but Cliff does have a point.

Anyone who underestimates the jackasses in control hasn't been paying attention to their financial history.

See, governments don't like others muscling in on their monopoly of printing money. It's their money or the highway. So along comes Bitcoin and they must be viewing that as a threat. The audacity of some programmer creating money out of thin air!

Using drugs as an analogy. Pot is illegal (in most countries) yet it's a naturally occurring plant, as genuine as a tree in your garden. Yet possessing pot is illegal. Bitcoin although out there could be made illegal to hold, you never know. Remember, the US has done it with Gold before.

Whatever the case, the genie is out of the bottle.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
Quoting ohakaba
Sincerely speaking this is like the heat of the moment,hence central banks are in existence any potential treat to how the banking system operates would surely be eliminated, sooner or later.
No matter how high bitcon gets its just artificial,and we know how it would turn out.
Again, anyone thinking Bitcoin or the Blockchain are going anywhere other than into the future understand neither the technology or the nature of de-centralisation. Here's a prediction, since the GBP is the oldest fiat currency in the World at approx 400 years we know that all Fiat currencies are doomed to fail (over 800 recognised failures are well documented). The reason for the failures are that all of these currencies are awaiting a Mugabe, Weimar, Mark Carney to come along and turn their credibility into dust. Bitcoin will never have a central banker, currently the Blockchain is updated every time it is altered onto over 10,000 private and company computers both on earth and now on at least 3 privately owned satellites. Further they will only ever mine 21 Million bitcoin, which gets round the idiot problem of printing to dust mentioned above. Hard to see why any current currency will outlast Bitcoin when you understand the genius behind it.

As JP Morgan would say if he were alive today "Only Gold, Silver and Bitcoin are real money, everything else is just credit"
Quoting NewtonsCash
Spoken like a Gent of a certain age Cliff, it's a decentralised cryptocurrency without a host domain, China clamps down it moves elsewhere, further it's now becoming firmly recognised as "The smart peoples currency of choice" i.e. beyond Dumb Central Bankers. Overtime someone has tried to "Control" the price it just comes back stronger. It has been around awhile now, I personally bought in at $87 and am very happy with the investment, I can transfer large funds anywhere in the World virtually for free in a nanosecond , again showing the banking...
Well thank you. NC
Ive encountered some arrogant clowns in my time but you are special
Stupid enough to respond offensively to someone with no idea of who youre talking to .

Ive used computers in business for over 30 years.
Ive used PCs in Lan/WAN configs since late 80s.
Ive two sons in financial/security programming.
Ive been involved in multicurrency asset management at commercial level for 20 years.

As to Bitcoin, we first flagged it in 2011. Crypto currency concepts had been around for some years but this seemed interesting at the time.
Examining both the blockchain structures and the commercial future potential.
We even looked briefly at the business of mining.
We too bought a small amount to experiment with. Think we bought a couple at about about 25$.
I have no intention here of disclosing our subsequent or current interests in the instrument.

So after all that, son, my message to you is dont come on here acting the smart ass, and trying to start a pissing contest on the basis of a considered comment from someone with 20x your experience in IT and its application to financial instruments when you have no idea who you are talking down to.

You can consider this exchange now closed.
So dont bother replying.
Quoting cliffedwards
Well thank you. NC
Ive encountered some arrogant clowns in my time but you are special
Stupid enough to respond offensively to someone with no idea of who youre talking to .

Ive used computers in business for over 30 years.
Ive used PCs in Lan/WAN configs since late 80s.
Ive two sons in financial/security programming.
Ive been involved in multicurrency asset management at commercial level for 20 years.

As to Bitcoin, we first flagged it in 2011. Crypto currency concepts had been around for some years but this seemed interesting at the...
Wow, you really don't like it when people return the bile you so happily dish out on a daily basis do you CE, I agree lets not comment on each others posts , it's clear with both Brexit and Trump 'm dealing with someone sore from repetitive loser syndrome so I'll happily go away
Quoting NewtonsCash
Spoken like a Gent of a certain age Cliff, it's a decentralised cryptocurrency without a host domain, China clamps down it moves elsewhere, further it's now becoming firmly recognised as "The smart peoples currency of choice" i.e. beyond Dumb Central Bankers. Overtime someone has tried to "Control" the price it just comes back stronger. It has been around awhile now, I personally bought in at $87 and am very happy with the investment, I can transfer large funds anywhere in the World virtually for free in a nanosecond , again showing the banking...
Nice article. I feel like saying "You just got served". I think it's good to have some cash, gold, bitcoin, shares. You need to be long some things as well.
Bitcoin does not make any sense to me...
Le$$ I$ More
Quoting Roszey
Bitcoin does not make any sense to me...
It doesn't make sense to a lot of people, and that should be a source of concern to those who think its the best thing since sliced bread. Its like any fiat currency, its only worth something because people believe it is - its not backed by anything real, anything tangible. If and when a crisis of confidence in bitcoin arises, perhaps through government clampdowns making it dangerous to own or trade, it'll be dumped the same as any other currency would be - but much faster due to its comparatively thin trade volumes.
Regardless of whether Bitcoin will or will not see giddy heights in the future, we will be seeing 660 over the next few days/weeks.
Combat crazy markets with crazy trading
Why so many people with such confidence that Bitcoin will never collapse or even compare it with Gold, Silver or some other black metals? It don't even make sense to me because Bitcoin is absolutely something in the thin air or something people "believe" that make it valuable. I am not trying to criticize how bad Bitcoin is, and back to few years ago I am also a fan of it but just some quick chance back to those days when internet world first appearance. What behind fiat currencies? It is just some toilet paper printed by credible bank but at least it is backed by Gold. So what is Bitcoin? Can anyone tell me it is backed by what? Absolutely nothing pr better to describe just some computer figures and marketing stance that works well. I remember back to couple years ago, some error in blockchain cause over distributed. You know what, somebody behind can reverse those over distribute coins. This story tells you it is not as great as those so called "Smart People Currencies" because somebody is behind those figures. I don't know whether someday it will collapse, but if happen, I believe it will be much worst than Internet Bubble because as I said, it is not backed by anything that neither real, tangible nor valuable.
Quoting ChinaTraderz
it is not backed by anything that neither real, tangible nor valuable.
Neither is fiat money. No fiat money is backed by gold anymore. In fact central banks don't even print the money on paper anymore, it only exists in their computers and is being printed nonstop to inflationate the governments' debt at the expense of everybody.

Bitcoin cannot be inflated, printed, counterfeited, or anything else. That alone makes it worth more than fiat currencies. But as your example shows, it is hard for people to understand that.
Quoting fsm
Neither is fiat money.
I didn't say it was. If you take the trouble of reading my comment properly, you'll see I compared Bitcoin to fiat currencies because neither are backed by anything real. The only reason any currency, including Bitcoin, has any worth is because people have faith in them. If something shakes that faith, they collapse.

Like it or not, the number of people who have faith in Bitcoin is magnitudes smaller than those who have faith in fiat currencies. And sure that may change in the future, but none of us know that until we get there.

Quote
Bitcoin cannot be inflated, printed, counterfeited, or anything else. That alone makes it worth more than fiat currencies. But as your example shows, it is hard for people to understand that.

I'll deal with your snarky comment first. Just because people disagree with you, don't make the mistake of assuming its because they don't understand.

Yes, Bitcoin has limits on how many can be printed, and yes its possible for central banks to let the hyperinflation genie out of the bottle and print a currency into oblivion. That is one of the arguments in Bitcoin's favour, as is the fact that its not controlled by any central bank or government. However that will not save it from government attempts to either control it or stamp it out. No government in history has tolerated alternative currencies for long, and I don't expect it'll be different in this case either.

You can put your unmitigated trust in Bitcoin if you like - if you do, I hope it works out well for you.
Quoting slipshod
I didn't say it was.
You didn't, but ChinaTraderz did.

Quoting slipshod
If you take the trouble of reading my comment properly, you'll see I compared Bitcoin to fiat currencies because neither are backed by anything real. The only reason any currency, including Bitcoin, has any worth is because people have faith in them. If something shakes that faith, they collapse.

Like it or not, the number of people who have faith in Bitcoin is magnitudes smaller than those who have faith in fiat currencies. And sure that may change in the future, but none of us know that until we get there.
You have a point there. Nobody knows where we will be in 5 years. But I see the benefits of Bitcoin and really hope more people will begin to see them soon.

Quoting slipshod
I'll deal with your snarky comment first. Just because people disagree with you, don't make the mistake of assuming its because they don't understand.

Yes, Bitcoin has limits on how many can be printed, and yes its possible for central banks to let the hyperinflation genie out of the bottle and print a currency into oblivion. That is one of the arguments in Bitcoin's favour, as is the fact that its not controlled by any central bank or government. However that will not save it from government attempts to either control it or stamp it out....
Again, point taken. We will see what happens, I'd love to see Bitcoin become a true alternative to our current banking system. But I am also realistic enough to understand that this may or may not happen.
Even though at the moment I'm not invested in Bitcoin, I too hope it succeeds - though I see a long period of turmoil and volatility as it finds its place in the world relative to other currencies, commodities and PMs.

I do think that in order to prosper Bitcoin will at some point have to become a lot more accessible to the average person. Right now its only understandable to people who put the effort into researching how it works and what it means, and that's just too much trouble for most.

It'll be a different story when Joe Sixpack can walk into a corner store and pay for goods in bitcoin, or go to his bank and switch his money between bitcoin & the local currency, or pay for an ebay or amazon purchase with bitcoins, etc. Also when we traders can fire up MT4 and trade BITUSD, BITJPY, AUDBIT and so on.
[quote=ChinaTraderz;9494137What behind fiat currencies? It is just some toilet paper printed by credible bank but at least it is backed by Gold. So what is Bitcoin? Can anyone tell me it is backed by what? Absolutely nothing pr better to describe just some computer figures and marketing stance that works well. [/quote]

Yeah, Yeah, I agree. CB's should support Bitcoin. Or Somebody, companies, or banks should support bitcoin.

That means banks can issue notes backed by BTC. So, BTC and Gold should have comparable preferences. Will it happen? I don't know. Many ppl would like to see it happen. Especially what we see with fiat currency fluctuation.
Quoting fsm
Neither is fiat money. No fiat money is backed by gold anymore. In fact central banks don't even print the money on paper anymore, it only exists in their computers and is being printed nonstop to inflationate the governments' debt at the expense of everybody.

Bitcoin cannot be inflated, printed, counterfeited, or anything else. That alone makes it worth more than fiat currencies. But as your example shows, it is hard for people to understand that.
Why it cannot be inflated, printed, counterfeited if someone actually behind and controlling Bitcoin? Bitcoin existence are not someone who found it as a natural resources. It is created by someone, right? If fiat currencies isn't backed by gold anymore, then Gold will not describe as safe haven commodities. Let's imagine 10 years later and World War 3 occurs. What worth more? Natural resources commodities, toilet paper fiat currencies, or Bitcoin? In fact, Bitcoin is just a game money to me created by someone with some great marketing stance.
Bubble? which bubble? Lame argumentation. I can't find a parallel between Nasdaq in 2000 and Bitcoin today.
No more than with gold, crude oil or even the euro from recent years.
Patience is magic
Gold or BTC? Gold is hard to store and carry; and subject to border law. BTC: easy to store and carry; limited border law.
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Quoting Muntu
Bubble? which bubble? Lame argumentation. I can't find a parallel between Nasdaq in 2000 and Bitcoin today.
No more than with gold, crude oil or even the euro from recent years.
errrr how about a hype bubble? I see the energy and faith in crypto moving from the current leader (bitcoin) to the next, this will be bitcoins downfall. It currently has problems with speed as the blockchain has to verify all transactions and there is a design flaw which means it will slow right down the more people adopt and use it.

The point about fiat being non backed is flawed. It is backed by oil currently (the petro-dollar) and also a mighty military(force). The banks want a digital currency but they will they want that 3rd party action, so de-centralised wont be their thing, even if they pretend to like it(there's just no profit in it for them).
Quoting OZTrader22
Nice article. I feel like saying "You just got served". I think it's good to have some cash, gold, bitcoin, shares. You need to be long some things as well.
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  • Posted: Jan 27, 2017 9:10am
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Technical Analysis
    Comments: 23  /  Views: 7,395