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  • The turn of the year - speech by Mark Carney

    From bankofengland.co.uk Story is in PDF Format

    It is a pleasure to be at Queen Mary University of London to give the 2016 Peston Lecture. Fifty years ago Lord Peston was invited to take up a Chair in Economics at Queen Mary and to found the forerunner of today’s School of Economics and Finance. Anniversaries provide the opportunity to look back and plan ahead. When doing so, it is sometimes helpful to recall Shimon Peres’ definition of a young person as someone whose future ambitions exceed their past accomplishments. So while Queen Mary can take justified pride in its long-standing commitment to community engagement and widening local participation, what is ... (full story)

and? where are going? down?
or up?!
Quoting Foren
and? where are going? down?
or up?!
Quote
"Well the year has turned, and, in my view, the decision proved straightforward: now is not yet the time to
raise interest rates. This wasn’t a surprise to market participants or the wider public. They observed the
renewed collapse in oil prices, the volatility in China, and the moderation in growth and wages here at home
since the summer and rightly concluded that not enough cumulative progress had been made to warrant
tightening monetary policy."

Regretful, I was hoping for GBP strength
Typical of Carney to sneak in a quick speech.
Quoting Foren
and? where are going? down?
or up?!
At the moment the rule appears to be 'when a Central Banker speaks the currency goes down', unless it is Yellen giving advance warning of the next rate rise.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Of course, he's speaking about last week's meeting. This could be a case of running stops on a statement that is not really that significant given the fact that we know last week's vote.
Quoting alexpi
Quote
"Well the year has turned, and, in my view, the decision proved straightforward: now is not yet the time to
raise interest rates. This wasn’t a surprise to market participants or the wider public. They observed the
renewed collapse in oil prices, the volatility in China, and the moderation in growth and wages here at home
since the summer and rightly concluded that not enough cumulative progress had been made to warrant
tightening monetary policy."

Regretful, I was hoping for GBP strength
Tnanks, very good reply!
He said No Rate Hike Soon!!! Its all currencies War, No one wants to strengthening the Currency.
sellios
Carney said
It is clear to me that, since last summer, progress has been insufficient along these dimensions to warrant a
tightening of monetary policy. The world is weaker and UK growth has slowed. Due to the oil price collapse,
inflation has fallen further and will likely remain very low for longer. This may mean modestly weaker cost
growth through this year, with the likely path for inflation, both headline and core, softer as a result. In short,
recent developments suggest that the firming in inflationary pressure we had expected will take longer to
materialise,,,
Interesting chart-2, shows the effect of Chancellor Lawson meddling with the mortgage market.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Bye bye GBP
Looks like carney is selling a lot
what hapen with bp/usd to much low that year
>>>>>>>>BULL<<<<<<<<<
Quoting manahil
what hapen with bp/usd to much low that year
Quoting Kajos2250
{quote} Last bearish marubozu in the game on the daily, sell limit .4336 invalidation daily close above ~4425 targetting close under ~4225... good luck!
Eyes of bears have been opened by triggering conservative retrace level ~4336 of last bearish marubozu
invalidation price close above ~4425...

good luck!
today was "dead cat pounds" not "dead cat bounce"
ah nice pips.he should give speech often man.
Don't be greedy! Sooner or later it will kill you! "Droneox Dragon"
Quoting TForliving
Bye bye GBP
Close your trade station and turn off your computer.
100 pips now!

Thanks Carney
Quoting Ryder
Close your trade station and turn off your computer.
Really he need it? I don't think so. I also think with BYE BYE GBP
Bottom Price for Gbpusd is 1.4185 ..Buy dip
Quoting asmadi78
Bottom Price for Gbpusd is 1.4185 ..Buy dip
Wait and watch the new bottom..
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  •  Guest
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Now, GBPUSD low since March 2009, time to buy?
New button
Quoting Shiv999
Wait and watch the new bottom..
New Button? I don't believe so, until it 1.32
  •  Guest
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GBP will be sink to the lowest level in your monthly chart this year., just prediction only. It is clear that central bank and big player keep shorting the pound eventhough the news data is positive for gbp. Bye2 GBP, see u next year
It's Soros again?
Quoting asmadi78
Bottom Price for Gbpusd is 1.4185 ..Buy dip
Bottom is 1.40 unless your charts say otherwise.

Remember, he who uses absolute numbers gets red face....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Thanks to Mark, am now staring at red charts
Quoting Revalif
today was "dead cat pounds" not "dead cat bounce"
rofl this is why I keep coming back to FF! the comedy xD
All posts are my personal opinion
will the GBPUSD correct itself ?
she's back 6 years low now... 1.4227
  •  Guest
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betcha Carney has been watching GBPCAD since he took over at BoE.
Beware. I'm trading cabe from 4.5 yrs and such "silent" falls like the last 6 consecutive weeks when the euro is almost static against dollar are very unusual. Sharp upward movements could be expected. And such orchestrated appeals of Carney "out of nowhere" also seem suspicious.

Last year the same silent squeeze (almost no explanation from financial media) to 1.45xx zone. And then it had burst 1280 pips upward for 5 weeks.

Just don't get trapped in bottom selling.
Quoting Rtm
rofl this is why I keep coming back to FF! the comedy xD
Sure looks like it loool
Quoting xfbnb
Thanks to Mark, am now staring at red charts
Me too...even in my dreams....
Quoting michaelpelly
Beware. I'm trading cabe from 4.5 yrs and such "silent" falls like the last 6 consecutive weeks when the euro is almost static against dollar are very unusual. Sharp upward movements could be expected. And such orchestrated appeals of Carney "out of nowhere" also seem suspicious.

Last year the same silent squeeze (almost no explanation from financial media) to 1.45xx zone. And then it had burst 1280 pips upward for 5 weeks.

Just don't get trapped in bottom selling.
A VERY GOOD observation here. ty
All posts are my personal opinion
Same happened in the summer of 2013 - the double bottom to 1.48xx. After the second bottom had hit the 1.48xx it raised up to 1.71xx for 12 months with no deep corrections.
Quoting michaelpelly
Same happened in the summer of 2013 - the double bottom to 1.48xx. After the second bottom had hit the 1.48xx it raised up to 1.71xx for 12 months with no deep corrections.
We are below that already. The closest bottom is in 2008, which was 1.35. Between 2000-1 the range was 1.4 - 1.5. March 1983 bottom 1.072. (At least on my chart.)

To turn up serious institutional (MM) buyers should show up on the horizon. But now not even the BOE is worried.
Quoting laszlo-1
We are below that already. The closest bottom is in 2008, which was 1.35. Between 2000-1 the range was 1.4 - 1.5. March 1983 bottom 1.072. (At least on my chart.)

To turn up serious institutional (MM) buyers should show up on the horizon. But now not even the BOE is worried.
I'm mentioning the model and behavior - not the importance of the levels.

And I guess we have a light somewhere that shows when serious institutional MMs will start to buy?
Quoting michaelpelly
Beware. I'm trading cabe from 4.5 yrs and such "silent" falls like the last 6 consecutive weeks when the euro is almost static against dollar are very unusual. Sharp upward movements could be expected. And such orchestrated appeals of Carney "out of nowhere" also seem suspicious.

Last year the same silent squeeze (almost no explanation from financial media) to 1.45xx zone. And then it had burst 1280 pips upward for 5 weeks.

Just don't get trapped in bottom selling.
6-7-2014, there's 7 consecutive weeks falling
What absolute insanity this Central Bank game is.

The world and particularly, western world governments, have been hijacked by ivory tower economic intellectuals who have no connection with reality. All that Carney’s latest huff and puff continues to reveal is that he and his ilk have led and continue to lead everyone down/up a proverbial garden path and have not got a clue what is going on or where now we should go.

All the debate, discussion and commentary that ensues around the world each time Carney, Yellin, Drahgi, Xi, Legard, et al open their mouths is nothing but useless, meaningless static noise rising out of baseless tripe. Economists can tell you in the minutest detail what might have happened but are totally incapable with their flawed extrapolation models of predicting anything. Their models are completely devoid of the human element (Ref Greenspan –Jon Stewart interview) and refuse to recognise relevant Social-economic elements (Ref Robert Prechter, Socionomics).

So the world economy will still crash and there is nothing any of these “whiz kids”, and/or our frozen governments, can say or, worse, do, that will stop it. This is not doom and gloom, this is reality.
Quoting Revalif
6-7-2014, there's 7 consecutive weeks falling
The setup back then was - EUR/USD and GBP/USD where falling against USD in conjunction. Basically the USD speculation of rate hike was driving the market - and GBP started descend from a record (for the last 5yrs) 1.71xx.

Currently EUR is static against dollar and GBP gets sold off even after descent economic data. I'm not sure where the bottom might be - just sharing my opinion that it smells on huge squeeze that will burst unexpectedly (my favorite word :-), and will trap a lot of bottom sellers.
Quoting michaelpelly
The setup back then was - EUR/USD and GBP/USD where falling against USD in conjunction. Basically the USD speculation of rate hike was driving the market - and GBP started descend from a record (for the last 5yrs) 1.71xx.

Currently EUR is static against dollar and GBP gets sold off even after descent economic data. I'm not sure where the bottom might be - just sharing my opinion that it smells on huge squeeze that will burst unexpectedly (my favorite word :-), and will trap a lot of bottom sellers.
Probably look to the EurGbp chart for when that might hit resistance.

I have been noticing Cable falls while Fibre floats.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Quoting michaelpelly
The setup back then was - EUR/USD and GBP/USD where falling against USD in conjunction. Basically the USD speculation of rate hike was driving the market - and GBP started descend from a record (for the last 5yrs) 1.71xx.

Currently EUR is static against dollar and GBP gets sold off even after descent economic data. I'm not sure where the bottom might be - just sharing my opinion that it smells on huge squeeze that will burst unexpectedly (my favorite word :-), and will trap a lot of bottom sellers.
Eur/Gbp just reached major resistance (2012 low).
Gone to a better place
Quoting ZeusOfCrete
.... So the world economy will still crash and there is nothing any of these “whiz kids”, and/or our frozen governments, can say or, worse, do, that will stop it. This is not doom and gloom, this is reality.
After the rectal examination is over....

The longest recession period was 30 years, iirc. Not that we are in recession at the moment, but the persistent zero inflation must feel like that to some ivory tower dwellers.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Quoting Exodus
Probably look to the EurGbp chart for when that might hit resistance.

I have been noticing Cable falls while Fibre floats.
Amazing, Exodus. Although I posted a similar thought 1 minute later, I did not read your post!
Gone to a better place
Quoting smikester
Amazing, Exodus. Although I posted a similar thought 1 minute later, I did not read your post!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Quoting michaelpelly
I'm mentioning the model and behavior - not the importance of the levels.

And I guess we have a light somewhere that shows when serious institutional MMs will start to buy?
The levels at this point are important!

The price to go up or down is 50-50%. But a long trend to turn on historical support/resistance is statistically 50+%. Now that the 2010 support is broken, the next is around 1.35. From here to reach that seams to me 50+. And because the BOE doesn't show the least worry makes it to 50++.

My conclusion is that till that level I wouldn't enter any long position.
If that support gets broken and BOE still won't be concerned (not even verbally) then...

Most people believe in equilibrium, but according to Soros the market is moved by reflexibility.
Quoting laszlo-1
The levels at this point are important!

The price to go up or down is 50-50%. But a long trend to turn on historical support/resistance is statistically 50+%. Now that the 2010 support is broken, the next is around 1.35. From here to reach that seams to me 50+. And because the BOE doesn't show the least worry makes it to 50++.

My conclusion is that till that level I wouldn't enter any long position.
If that support gets broken and BOE still won't be concerned (not even verbally) then...

Most people believe in equilibrium, but according...
On that tone I still remember the astonished remark and genuine surprise from a forum participant here back in 2013 - "It can't reverse here - this doesn't make any sense!"

it was about the EUR/USD trend that was going up. And 90% of the forum participants here were "convinced" the pair will go to 1.40 and then they would go for short positions. Actually the pair reversed around and 1.37 and then went to 1.27 - and it took 12+ months to go back to 1.37+.

The point I'm making here is - if the swing trend reversal points were "written in stone" - everyone would wait for 1.35 to enter long...so how the "dumb" could be distinguished from the "smart" if we all wait for this target?! :-) A bit funny ah? :-) And if the swing levels were that exactly defined - how can you explain the travel up to 1.72xx for cable (2014) - there was no long-term swing point there - most banks were even dreaming for 1.8 - 1.9 back then.

I would tell you that most of the traders get trapped when they are subjected to "trend crowd momentum" factor - when one starts to selectively choose what to believe based on the trend momentum.

It is just a game - it will reverse somewhere - but it would not be 1.35 - at least not in 100% of the down-trends in cable.

Usually a trend reverses on saturation of demand/supply levels - then there is a correction, then another attempt to resume the trend, then again saturation of demand/supply level (but not breaching support/resistance), then correction again and until everyone is busy cursing about "market manipulation" - the reverse swing trend is already formed and all "crowd traders" hop in to reap between 25-35% of the remaining trend move, while smart money already start to cash-in fat profits from scraping the bottom/top before. And this game is pure psychology ;-).

Speculation has a meaning before the crowd realizes the speculation target ;-). This is what distinguishes players from the crowd ;-).
Quoting michaelpelly
On that tone I still remember the astonished remark and genuine surprise from a forum participant here back in 2013 - "It can't reverse here - this doesn't make any sense!"
Don't get me wrong. I put the chances of turning:
Around 1.42x 50+. (surpassed)
Under 1.41x to ~1.35 50%.
Around 1.35 again 50+. (If ever gets there.)

In-between I stay out. As a long time player - like you -, I am long from 1.42.

That's why I expect it to go way under 1.35 - where I will enter long again. Somewhere to parity, to make sure I won't win;-) Or just range btw 1.36-1.48x for months which is a meaningless territory for me.
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