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  • A recession worse than 2008 is coming

    From cnbc.com

    The S&P 500 has begun 2016 with its worst performance ever. This has prompted Wall Street apologists to come out in full force and try to explain why the chaos in global currencies and equities will not be a repeat of 2008. Nor do they want investors to believe this environment is commensurate with the dot-com bubble bursting. They claim the current turmoil in China is not even comparable to the 1997 Asian debt crisis. Indeed, the unscrupulous individuals that dominate financial institutions and governments seldom predict a down-tick on Wall Street, so don't expect them to warn of the impending global recession and ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Jan 15, 2016 1:11pm Jan 15, 2016 1:11pm
yes, buy anything that the government can't touch or tax (only cryptocurrency)
  • #2
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  • Jan 15, 2016 1:25pm Jan 15, 2016 1:25pm
lolol you actually think the government cant regulate bitcoin?
  • #3
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  • Jan 15, 2016 1:59pm Jan 15, 2016 1:59pm
A solid article; which does get into the real crux of the problems faced by all economies now, especially the USA. The QE measures of the world's main central banks have truly screwed the pooch.

And there's going to be a lot of real blood in the streets before anything is resolved years from now.
  • #4
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  • Jan 15, 2016 1:59pm Jan 15, 2016 1:59pm
January 15th seems interesting date. Last year - CHF today forgotten, / today stocks crisis, probably driven by IT.
  • #5
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  • Jan 15, 2016 2:14pm Jan 15, 2016 2:14pm
Quoting Pharm0r
lolol you actually think the government cant regulate bitcoin?
There are at least 10-20 countries with the tech resources to destroy the Bitcoin network. And probably 100 corporations. But you only have to create enough havoc to undermine confidence in BTC. It's only a matter of time until someone acts.
  • #6
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  • Jan 15, 2016 3:09pm Jan 15, 2016 3:09pm
Blah Blah Blah... I wish I had a dollar for every time some guy on wall street says the sky is falling.
  • #7
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  • Jan 15, 2016 3:23pm Jan 15, 2016 3:23pm
He's not just saying it, he is saying WHY. And you've not said anything to refute him.

As a Commercial Member pundit; don't you make your real money and main income from the continuing rise in markets?

Quoting Trout
Blah Blah Blah... I wish I had a dollar for every time some guy on wall street says the sky is falling.
  • #8
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  • Jan 15, 2016 3:59pm Jan 15, 2016 3:59pm
I have no idea what a "commercial member pundit" is. I"m a boring market analyst. I do know I just filled up the car w/ gas for $20, down from $50 in 2008. And retail sales in Dec were 25% greater than in Dec '08. Retail is 70% of the economy you know. He may just be long gold from an average price of $1,500 so he's experiencing a recession.
  • #9
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  • Jan 15, 2016 4:11pm Jan 15, 2016 4:11pm
I don't know him from a bar of soap. But what he has to say is right on the money. His rationale and reasoning extremely sound.

Certainly the Central Banks cannot inflate away their massive debts and printed money with such deflationary outlooks now upon us.

Corporate America can't bullshit their profits for much longer with such artificially low interest rates accounting for the lions share of their profits now coming to an end.

And as they stand now, they - the central banks have no further ammunition to deal with the depression heading the world's way. They've shot their wad, and have no where to turn.

Quoting Trout
I have no idea what a "commercial member pundit" is. I"m a boring market analyst. I do know I just filled up the car w/ gas for $20, down from $50 in 2008. And retail sales in Dec were 25% greater than in Dec '08. Retail is 70% of the economy you know. He may just be long gold from an average price of $1,500 so he's experiencing a recession.
  • #10
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  • Jan 15, 2016 5:00pm Jan 15, 2016 5:00pm
... I see all the time remarks about "main central banks" Do you mean "central" because they are located in the center of cities???

The private banking cartel (they like to call themselves US Federal Reserve) is the one that dictates the financial world and they know well what they do.

Who actually owns the 12 Federal Reserve Central Banks in the US?
1.Rothschild Bank of London
2.Warburg Bank of Hamburg
3.Rothschild Bank of Berlin
4.Lehman Brothers of New York
5.Lazard Brothers of Paris
6.Kuhn Loeb Bank of New York
7.Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy
8.Goldman, Sachs of New York
9.Warburg Bank of Amsterdam
10.Chase Manhattan Bank of New York
  • #11
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  • Jan 15, 2016 5:12pm Jan 15, 2016 5:12pm
I know Dancing Phil, it's so much more fun to have a strong opinion, and show real emotion, and tell everyone how it will be, and imagine ourselves profiting greatly while those that didn't listen go under.

And besides the numbers created by the pay-checks of the majority of American's and their consumption and saving habits is so predictabl, so boring. Numbers overall are boring.
  • #12
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  • Jan 15, 2016 5:29pm Jan 15, 2016 5:29pm
DOW closed below and retested the main ascending TL on weekly chart and is clearly tanking on weekly and monthly charts. Maybe some bounces left it in but has a long way to fall after breaking south of many months of topped out congestion.
Indicates confidence is dropping fast. It's the regular trigger for economic downturns no?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #13
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  • Jan 15, 2016 5:36pm Jan 15, 2016 5:36pm
Hi I'll-b-back,
I see it as a normal correction of the rally following the breakout in 2013 of the 12-year sideways market. The weekly S&P 500 chart is still showing higher lows.
  • #14
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  • Jan 15, 2016 5:58pm Jan 15, 2016 5:58pm
Will it be the final end of world economy?
  • #15
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  • Jan 15, 2016 6:03pm Jan 15, 2016 6:03pm
Quoting Trout
Hi I'll-b-back,
I see it as a normal correction of the rally following the breakout in 2013 of the 12-year sideways market. The weekly S&P 500 chart is still showing higher lows.
I think your ignoring the obvious signs.
On the DOW, We have retested the congestion breakout then
had our first weekly close below the main ascending TL since the '08 crisis. Retested the TL this week and now accelerating south.
It's a clear retest then turn on monthly chart.
I think their is another little rally left in it on the weekly chart, then south
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #16
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  • Jan 15, 2016 6:07pm Jan 15, 2016 6:07pm
I'm going to buy the S&P 500 in my IRA if it gets to 1755
  • #17
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  • Jan 15, 2016 8:34pm Jan 15, 2016 8:34pm
Quoting Trout
I have no idea what a "commercial member pundit" is. I"m a boring market analyst. I do know I just filled up the car w/ gas for $20, down from $50 in 2008. And retail sales in Dec were 25% greater than in Dec '08. Retail is 70% of the economy you know. He may just be long gold from an average price of $1,500 so he's experiencing a recession.
Retail being 70 percent of economy is a problem in itself for the US as we know.
25 percent higher than Dec '08!! That's cherry picking if ever I have seen it.
Crikey Trout, Australias retail sales are almost higher than what the US had at that LOWEST point in the crisis
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #18
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  • Jan 15, 2016 10:50pm Jan 15, 2016 10:50pm
What is interesting about this article is not so much the doom prophecy as the fact that the mainstream media is now using the word "deflation" with greater frequency.

The author's points:

1. global slowdown in production
2. ongoing commodities rout
3. Chinese equities crash
4. tighter debt spiral
5. etc

These are symptoms that we can all see, but that they are indicative of recession is arguable, since these symptoms have been with us and have recurred for several decades - and not always leading to utter doom.

Saying "deflation", though, is new.

The central banks and their mouthpieces don't say "deflation". They say "we have concerns about inflation". And what they mean is that Consumer Price Index is failing to go up. But until circa 2000 the consensus financial definition of inflation was "an increase in money supply and credit", and the current Mirriam-Websters definition is "an increase in the cost of goods and services".

Since the definition of inflation has shifted from the cause to the effect, the cause is rarely discussed: Money plus Credit. In other words Money Supply.

The Fed has stopped printing money, so that part of the money supply is no longer being inflated. By raising interest rates, they decrease the availability of credit, so that part of the money supply is deflating.

Deflation.
http://trade.cryptocurrents.net/fiat-credit-deflation-and-bitcoin/

Socio-nomics has presented various studies that show that mainstream news typically lags the real economy by 3-6 months. Hence, the fact that the mainstream (and not just zerohedge and a few crackpots) now feel an impulse to present negative news about the economy, lends weight to the argument that the global economy is already 3-6 months into a recession - possibly the same recession that was cunningly averted in 2008.


"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion." - von Mises
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #19
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  • Jan 15, 2016 11:59pm Jan 15, 2016 11:59pm
@venzen : cool guy and what he says is totally correct.

Some extra points :

Add it to the asses inflation created after the recession by printing. In Euro area , economies are barely growing but home prices skyrocketed "easy credit" .

China's biggest problem lies in the inequality of income and inflated asset prices by money flowing into China that is borrowed from the developed central banks with rates close to zero. It was a very easy game with a continuously appreciating CNY but things are changing. Not talking about the decayed political system . They have the resources to change things with some loss but I am not sure whether there is political will to do that. I believe the balancing will be bloody and that will spiral into the global economy. Consequences , unknown !

Plus : Countries from US to UK plus most of the Europeans and some Asians has no chances to pay their national debts unless inflation is created to erode the burden. ( not talking about a 2 percent annual inflation !! ) Money is printed and normally that causes inflation and this time as a result of that we have seen an inflation in asset prices. Now it is time for a quick deflation there and later we will see the real inflation. There will be huge social and political results . History shows us that radicalism and fanaticism of everything rises at such periods of turmoil. That will be the things used by politicians to hold the grip.

Technically 1750's are so solid and logical for buying SP and probably we will see a reaction once that level is touched but there will be other forces running the markets by that time. So even if I enter the position there with a tight stop , I won't keep it waiting for 2000 or higher again.

Overall : it is a fantastic beginning to 2016 and there will be a lot of fun . China, UK, US elections, crude oil, middle east, Grexit later on, BRICS ...
  • #20
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  • Jan 16, 2016 12:41am Jan 16, 2016 12:41am
Quoting Pharm0r
lolol you actually think the government cant regulate bitcoin?
Doesnt matter if they do or dont, it will soon support anonymous payments and it is closer to ideal money than central rate targetted instruments and thus a matter of time before market phases out inefficient money and turn to cryptocurrencies.
  • #21
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  • Jan 16, 2016 12:43am Jan 16, 2016 12:43am
Quoting Zer0sum
There are at least 10-20 countries with the tech resources to destroy the Bitcoin network. And probably 100 corporations. But you only have to create enough havoc to undermine confidence in BTC. It's only a matter of time until someone acts.
Not true name one country and how, name one corporation and how and i will refute your claim with enlightenment.
  • #22
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  • Edited 3:31am Jan 16, 2016 1:30am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting Zer0sum
There are at least 10-20 countries with the tech resources to destroy the Bitcoin network. And probably 100 corporations. But you only have to create enough havoc to undermine confidence in BTC. It's only a matter of time until someone acts.
@Zer0sum, this is neither theoretically possible nor provably true.

The central Napster server could be unplugged but Bitcoin is better compared to BitTorrent. How does any agency or government propose to destroy such a distributed network?

A surprising quality of the Bitcoin network is that it is censorship-resistant. If it is disrupted here, it continues functioning unaffected over there. Besides, many governments have already accepted the unstoppable presence of Bitcoin and have legislated for it and made provision for its taxation and corporate use. Singapore and the US being prime examples. But even if no government "approved" it, Bitcoin is being used as a payment network, a store of wealth, as a contract mechanism and programmable money, internationally.

Maybe, it will never enjoy widespread mainstream adoption, but that is not what makes it useful.

Although the pretend-Bitcoins being developed by the Fed and Bank of England are not interesting, the global banks, Visa, PayPal, Western Union, etc feel threatened enough to implement blockchain in a sweaty hurry.

Bitcoin's distributed network is the largest and computationally most powerful botnet in existence. There seems to be a popular misconception that governments can muster the same resources, co-ordination and conviction as a defiant citizenry, but that is only what they want you to believe. If you check the facts and do some research about P2P and blockchain, you will see that Bitcoin is here to stay.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #23
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  • Edited 3:32am Jan 16, 2016 1:53am | Edited 3:32am
Perhaps, for those who get a lot of information from the mainstream media, there is still a perception that Bitcoin use is restricted to rebel-geeks and other minority deviants, but here is the same mainstream media with some light non-computer science facts:

From CCN: How big is Bitcoin?
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/23/technology/enterprise/bitcoin-supercomputers/index.html

and
http://www.businessinsider.com/quantum-computers-and-bitcoin-2013-4

Few of the commentators who pooh-pooh Bitcoin are aware that this commodity money is actively traded by many shadow banks and hedge funds on Wall Street and elsewhere. I'll leave that for interested parties to uncover for themselves.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #24
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  • Jan 16, 2016 3:59am Jan 16, 2016 3:59am
if those recessions are going to keep coming then I wonder what does those fancy Howard and Oxford degree holders doing? why cant they design plans for it?
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  • #25
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  • Jan 16, 2016 5:47am Jan 16, 2016 5:47am
This Michael Pento guy is full of crap don't listen to him.
  • #26
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  • Jan 16, 2016 7:01am Jan 16, 2016 7:01am
Quoting Eonfx
if those recessions are going to keep coming then I wonder what does those fancy Howard and Oxford degree holders doing? why cant they design plans for it?
There is a simple plan and it's to stop letting central banks take charge on the money supply.
  • #27
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  • Jan 16, 2016 9:42am Jan 16, 2016 9:42am
Quoting lovelyman
There is a simple plan and it's to stop letting central banks take charge on the money supply.

You are completely correct these guys cause the crashes, we are in the 7th year run on a bull market, the big guys know the market will fall, they are just messing with your heads, but it is not going to fall just yet, the chances of a rally on Monday are quite large and there is the potential that we make a new top this year, but not by much, just enough to clear out most peoples stops. I am expecting a fall in December 2016 in the first half of the Month. Thats the baby to get on,
  • #28
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  • Jan 16, 2016 9:57am Jan 16, 2016 9:57am
Quoting Hurst
You are completely correct these guys cause the crashes, we are in the 7th year run on a bull market, the big guys know the market will fall, they are just messing with your heads, but it is not going to fall just yet, the chances of a rally on Monday are quite large and there is the potential that we make a new top this year, but not by much, just enough to clear out most peoples stops. I am expecting a fall in December 2016 in the first half of the Month. Thats the baby to get on,
On the S&P500, we are about to break very weak lows on the Weekly TF.

It's hard to see any up movement not to talk about taking out stops above all time high
  • #29
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  • Jan 16, 2016 10:38am Jan 16, 2016 10:38am
I hate these kind of writings, the author pretend he knows something and use catchy phrases to intimidate readers. This fella is not giving kind warnings, he is trying to cause fear and chaos.
  • #30
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  • Jan 16, 2016 1:47pm Jan 16, 2016 1:47pm
The "ministry of information" speaks in order to edify the people.
They steer the sheeple in the direction that most benefits them.
  • #31
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  • Jan 16, 2016 2:34pm Jan 16, 2016 2:34pm
I expect oil to go higher then before
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #32
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  • Jan 16, 2016 2:42pm Jan 16, 2016 2:42pm
Quoting eqshack
I expect oil to go higher then before
I give it a low of ~ $25-$26
  • #33
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  • Jan 16, 2016 3:55pm Jan 16, 2016 3:55pm
Quoting venzen
Perhaps, for those who get a lot of information from the mainstream media, there is still a perception that Bitcoin use is restricted to rebel-geeks and other minority deviants, but here is the same mainstream media with some light non-computer science facts:

From CCN: How big is Bitcoin?
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/23/tech...ers/index.html

and
http://www.businessinsider.com/quant...bitcoin-2013-4

Few of the commentators who pooh-pooh Bitcoin are aware that this commodity...
Great post venzen as always, good to see you have a great year Sir.
The Chonchy
  • #34
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  • Jan 16, 2016 3:56pm Jan 16, 2016 3:56pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Retail being 70 percent of economy is a problem in itself for the US as we know.
25 percent higher than Dec '08!! That's cherry picking if ever I have seen it.
Crikey Trout, Australias retail sales are almost higher than what the US had at that LOWEST point in the crisis
Great analysis sir. as usual....I myself think that Warren Buffet and Bill Gates will take money from their pockets and fix the economy and pay everybody's loans on their houses and their debt on the credit cards.........so carry on guys...I'm going to the movies, "The Big Short" is showing again.....
The Chonchy
  • #35
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  • Jan 16, 2016 4:03pm Jan 16, 2016 4:03pm
Quoting chonchy
Great analysis sir. as usual....
Hello Sir, good to see you are killing the markets as usual
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36
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  • Jan 16, 2016 4:13pm Jan 16, 2016 4:13pm
Quoting Mingary
The "ministry of information" speaks in order to edify the people.
They steer the sheeple in the direction that most benefits them.
Hello my friend,
.... if somebody don't believe this guy, just look at this numbers, scary ah?.....

But most importantly, even if one were to concede financial institutions are less leveraged; the startling truth is that businesses, the federal government and the Federal Reserve have taken on a humongous amount of additional debt since 2007. Even household debt has increased back to its 2007 record of $14.1 trillion. Specifically, business debt during that time frame has grown from $10.1 trillion, to $12.6 trillion; the total national debt boomed from $9.2 trillion, to $18.9 trillion; and the Fed's balance sheet has exploded from $880 billion to $4.5 trillion.
The Chonchy
  • #37
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  • Jan 16, 2016 5:18pm Jan 16, 2016 5:18pm
Quoting venzen
@Zer0sum, this is neither theoretically possible nor provably true.

The central Napster server could be unplugged but Bitcoin is better compared to BitTorrent. How does any agency or government propose to destroy such a distributed network?

A surprising quality of the Bitcoin network is that it is censorship-resistant. If it is disrupted here, it continues functioning unaffected over there. Besides, many governments have already accepted the unstoppable presence of Bitcoin and have legislated for it and made provision for its taxation and...
Where do get this, Time Magazine?

Read BTC core Dev Hearn's exit letter. > 51% of the Bitcoin network is controlled by 2 cartels in China... mining through the Great Internet Wall... with bandwidth the rough equivalent of a cheap motel's WiFi network.

Core Bitcoin Devs are UNPAID. There are < 10. A letter from one exiting Dev just dropped Bitcoin by 20%... erasing > $1 billion in value.

You probably don't understand what 51% control means, but the Bitcoin network is already exploited and under the control of the 2 Chinese cartels. They are steadily increasing fees to levels you see on credit cards.

The Bitcoin network is in deep trouble... but keep the fairy tales coming.
  • #38
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  • Edited Jan 17, 2016 1:42pm Jan 16, 2016 7:36pm | Edited Jan 17, 2016 1:42pm
Quoting Zer0sum
Where do get this, Time Magazine?

Read BTC core Dev Hearn's exit letter. > 51% of the Bitcoin network is controlled by 2 cartels in China... mining through the Great Internet Wall... with bandwidth the rough equivalent of a cheap motel's WiFi network.
Mike Hearn is a well-known drama queen. It's hard to take anything he says seriously because he is prone to exaggeration and rarely speaks science and facts.

For example, if someone did not know this about Hearn, they'd read hyperbolic quotes by him and think that China is connected to the rest of the world via "bandwidth the rough equivalent of a cheap motel's WiFi network". Meanwhile, a simple connectivity test to OKcoin's or BTC-China's servers shows the bandwidth is better than some other parts of the world. So, Mike Hearn is exaggerating again.

With China being the world's most populous country and with most mining ASICs manufactured in China, would we not reasonably expect there to be more miners in China?

If the largest two mining pools were located in Germany or the USA, would Hearn still be calling them "cartels"? Unless @Zer0sum is misquoting him. Hearn should remember that these two Chinese pools have had >51% hash rate for several months - and have chosen not to use it maliciously - which says something about the pools and their economic incentive.

If its a 51% attack that Hearn fears then the practical response is for Mike Hearn to use his great influence to organize a hash rate balancing pool outside China, but again he prefers crying all over his big girl's blouse about it rather than put shoulder to wheel.

Bitcoin is a fairly standard Open Source project and as such most contribution is voluntary. There is a small team of devs with commit rights and an army of several thousand volunteers who review the code base, do maintenance and contribute code and bug fixes. This is how Open Source works, but Hearn doesn't like it - he would prefer to be the boss and tell everyone else what to do while he produces, directs and stars in his own blockchain opera.

After the blockchain reward halving in June, we could expect Bitcoin fees to become more expensive. During the initial few years of Bitcoin, the coinbase subsidy made low fees possible. A healthy fee market is described by Satoshi Nakamoto in his whitepaper.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #39
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  • Jan 17, 2016 4:22am Jan 17, 2016 4:22am
  •  Trader#AB78
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
no idea what bitcoin has got to do with a recession, but be at your screens when Chinese GDP etc. comes out tomorrow.

this may be another bad omen:

http://www.google.com/finance?cid=1095233500396574
  • #40
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  • Jan 17, 2016 7:05am Jan 17, 2016 7:05am
Quote
Fed's balance sheets have become insolvent
This is kind of difficult to grasp, what exactly is the Fed's balance sheet and how could it become insolvent. Worthless I can understand but insolvent....?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #41
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  • Jan 17, 2016 7:49am Jan 17, 2016 7:49am
Who cares... we're traders! I'd rather the markets didn't collapse, but if they do, I won't feel too guilty to sell and keep on selling.
  • #42
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  • Edited 8:42am Jan 17, 2016 8:21am | Edited 8:42am
Quoting Hurst
You are completely correct these guys cause the crashes, we are in the 7th year run on a bull market, the big guys know the market will fall, they are just messing with your heads, but it is not going to fall just yet, the chances of a rally on Monday are quite large and there is the potential that we make a new top this year, but not by much, just enough to clear out most peoples stops. I am expecting a fall in December 2016 in the first half of the Month. Thats the baby to get on,
The chances of a rally on Monday are zero. The US is shut.....

edit: at least the banks are shut, I expect the stock markets to be closed also.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43
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  • Jan 17, 2016 8:24am Jan 17, 2016 8:24am

Quoting eqshack
I expect oil to go higher then before
Thanks!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #44
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  • Jan 17, 2016 11:29am Jan 17, 2016 11:29am
Good posts venzen you really have your head straight.. We should chat some more, always enjoy connecting with like minded people who are on the ball
  • #45
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  • Jan 17, 2016 1:51pm Jan 17, 2016 1:51pm
recession or no recession trading is always safe.
  • #46
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  • Jan 17, 2016 8:48pm Jan 17, 2016 8:48pm
Quoting sidhujag
Doesnt matter if they do or dont, it will soon support anonymous payments and it is closer to ideal money than central rate targetted instruments and thus a matter of time before market phases out inefficient money and turn to cryptocurrencies.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=574642

WHERE IS YOUR CRYPTO CURRENCY GOD NOW

hahaha
  • #47
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  • Jan 23, 2016 8:44am Jan 23, 2016 8:44am
Quoting Exodus
The chances of a rally on Monday are zero. The US is shut.....

edit: at least the banks are shut, I expect the stock markets to be closed also.

Yes they were and my call was two day wrong, I now expect a move up to the 28.1.2016, I expect the DAX to touch 10452
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  • Posted: Jan 15, 2016 12:56pm
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    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 47  /  Views: 12,116