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  • 2015 was the hardest year to make money in 78 years

    From cnbc.com

    It's been a really, really tough year for returns. According to data from Societe Generale, the best-performing asset class of 2015 has been stocks, whose meager 2 percent total return (that is, including dividends) still surpasses those of long-term bonds, short-term Treasury bills and commodities. These minimal gains make 2015 the worst year for finding returns since 1937, when the cash-like 3-month Treasury bill beat out other major asset classes with a return of 0.3 percent. Larry McDonald, head of U.S. macro strategy at Societe Generale, said the all-encompassing lag in performance is one reason why major money ... (full story)

THIS, I agree with wholeheartedley. It was SO much harder to make money in 2015 than 2014.

So many annoying events in 2015:

1) Shanghai Composite Index burst (China's economy revealing stresses in its bubble)

2) ECB bailout of $1 trillion+ and its extension for the next few years (i.e. EU = in a big mess)

3) Potential Greek exit of the eurozone, and its INSANE comlications on euro pairs

4) Announcement of a Brexit referendum (British exit of eurozone when EU= at its worst)

5) Swiss National Bank collapsing the EUR/CHF price floor (and lying about maintaining it)

6) Oil Competition & Shale oil competition

7) CONTINUED bitching & debating over state of U.S. economy and rate hikes

8) Conflict in Middle East (Syria, Islamic State, & their effects on economy & oil)

9) Unrest in Ukraine/Crimea (effects on Euro, russian ruble, dollar, gas, oil, etc.)

10) Economic crisis in Russia (ruble's roller-coaster tanking, Eurasian investments being cockblocked by political volatility, effects on government bond prices in eastern europe). Did I also mention the panic over Russia's central bank rising AND slashing rates all of a sudden?

And there's SO much more I didn't list.

This was THE year when hedge funds, brokers, market makers, and independent traders all got fucked over by market volatility.

I had to resort to babysitting my trades even during the NIGHT (no sleep at all), because pairs like the gbp/jpy show random bounces after a clear rejection/launch, hitting my trailing stop losses.

Seriously, what the fuck is with 2015?
It sure was.... But only if you listen to those on CNBC
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
@Vermillion: Thanks buddy,
One of the best post.
Trade with Patience
That means 78% of the puppelation listens to the share salesman on CNBC
For investors maybe, for traders definitely not, or if it was, then you're playing these markets all wrong.
That piece is just a bunch of bulls*it.
http://www.jltrader.com/2016/01/01/debunking-a-dangerous-myth-2015-the-year-no-one-made-money/
The worst thing I can be is the same as everybody else. I hate that.
Despite it was a difficult year, that came with several losses, some traders still made good money in 2015.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.144.86
Instead of watching the Clueless people on CNBC, better would be to get your TV financial news from Bloomberg TV.

Also, of course the Federal Reserve and its Money printing had a lot to do with it, along with the Swiss National Bank shenanigans.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.86.103
20150 sucked
Quoting Guest
Instead of watching the Clueless people on CNBC, better would be to get your TV financial news from Bloomberg TV.

Also, of course the Federal Reserve and its Money printing had a lot to do with it, along with the Swiss National Bank shenanigans.
This. CNBC is a joke. It has about 50,000 viewers. The viewership is shockingly low. Bloomberg TV is infinitely better... specifically a show like Surveillance with Tom Keene.

And anybody shorting the commodity super cycle (that was a bubble created by China and free Central Bank money)... and short commodity currencies like CAD and AUD made a killing. Just like 2008-9 when anyone practicing market neutral stats arb made a freaking killing day after day because the NYSE spreads ballooned.
True, Zer0sum...short oil, and especially, short natgas were big money makers in 2015. Short fiber (eur/usd) was an easy one in Q1 2015, also. 20/20 hindsight never that impressive, though. What do you think will be dominant reliable trades for 2016?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Nice heading, I don't think most of us were trading the past 78 years to make such a statement!
Quoting The Fool
True, Zer0sum...short oil, and especially, short natgas were big money makers in 2015. Short fiber (eur/usd) was an easy one in Q1 2015, also. 20/20 hindsight never that impressive, though. What do you think will be dominant reliable trades for 2016?
I tend to scalp a market neutral portfolio... and believe that 99.9% of people and 95% of non-elite traders are "fooled by randomness".

In the "The Big Short" opening scene, Michael Burry circa 2005 refers to the 1930s... and says some hallmarks of a bust are increasing fraud and complexity. We've gone from multinational banks openly practicing fraud in 2005... to global Central Banks openly practicing fraud in 2015, while complexity and connectedness is off the charts.

This will not end well = volatility = VIX derivatives.
I'm with you on the VIX derivatives, Zsum - the various VIX options products are always in my books. Did you know the SEC has new rules that impact the leveraged etfs (like UVXY and SVXY, etc)...?

I have links here if you're interested.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8666106#post8666106

Happy New Year.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting Vermillion
THIS, I agree with wholeheartedley. It was SO much harder to make money in 2015 than 2014.

So many annoying events in 2015:

1) Shanghai Composite Index burst (China's economy revealing stresses in its bubble)

2) ECB bailout of $1 trillion+ and its extension for the next few years (i.e. EU = in a big mess)

3) Potential Greek exit of the eurozone, and its INSANE comlications on euro pairs

4) Announcement of a Brexit referendum (British exit of eurozone when EU= at its worst)

5) Swiss National Bank collapsing the EUR/CHF price floor...
Great post, was hard but not impossible, some of this you mentioned gave many of us oportunity to make profits...
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.149.176
i thought 2009 was the worse year ever since then its just been the same low interest bubble here bubble pop there setups.
Quoting Guest
20150 sucked
mind if i borrow your time machine?
Markets move in price, money gets made. That's not complicated at all. Try making money when price is as still as a mill pond and has barely a ripple.

The lovely things about Forex are the high leverage afforded us traders, and that shorting is just as respectable as going long.

So what position traders had a tough year!

I love it when price moves, and I don't care about the reason for it. Up or down is all the same to me.
Let's count our measly raises at work that did not make up for the rising heath care premiums.
Yes it was a bad year for buy-n-hold investments. We're mainly traders though, so we profit from volatility, not bullish directions.
Quoting demp
Yes it was a bad year for buy-n-hold investments. We're mainly traders though, so we profit from volatility, not bullish directions.
That being said it was still tough going in forex.......the Swiss pulled a fast one.....every time the central bank's sneezed we had huge swings......Greece....ECB.....etc.
it was not for me
focus while relaxed to see better
Anyone who found 2015 a difficult year to make money better seriously examine their strategies because 2016 is likely to be similar. For day traders, 2015 was a fantastic year, but then so was 2014 and 2013.

For longer term trend traders, certainly 2015 was very different to 2014, say for the euro, but a fibonacci placed on the monthly eur/usd chart anchored from the low in 2000 would have given the 61.8% at 11,170, and the 76.4% at 10,050. A rally or fall on any time frame , whether 10 second or monthly, is liable to stall at these levels, and so it proved for 2015. On the monthly charts, the main forex pairs have gone sideways, but on the smaller intraday charts - H1, 15m, 5 m, 1m , there have been countless opportunities to make money both ways. Anyone expecting the euro to simply keep falling through 2015 has not done their homework.

There are enough trading opportunities on any one day whether in forex or indecis, to make a fortune if your strategy is right. If you couldn't make money in 2015 then you're never going to unless you change. Don't make excuses, make changes, or fail, it's as simple as that.
Quoting cat
Anyone who found 2015 a difficult year to make money better seriously examine their strategies because 2016 is likely to be similar. For day traders, 2015 was a fantastic year, but then so was 2014 and 2013.

For longer term trend traders, certainly 2015 was very different to 2014, say for the euro, but a fibonacci placed on the monthly eur/usd chart anchored from the low in 2000 would have given the 61.8% at 11,170, and the 76.4% at 10,050. A rally or fall on any time frame , whether 10 second or monthly, is liable to stall at these levels,...
Yes, @Cat, #NoExcuses
The amount of trading opportunities is just crazy! However, this is not a full Buy/Hold scheme, you have to think and prepare that's why maybe it is so difficult, because we need to think a bit more and know how to move stop losses to catch bigger trends.

2016 will be just more of the same! Blackswans here and there, so...

No need to panic, it is just time to get ready for new challenges.
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  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.82.149
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Dec 31, 2015 8:28pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 24  /  Views: 9,044