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Three Rate Differentials to Note
During this holiday period, participation is light and order-driven activity can push prices more than usual. Investors should not let the noise and gyrations obscure the bigger picture. We continue to place the divergence of monetary policy at the center of our narrative. Barring a significant negative surprise from the labor market, we expect the Fed to hike rates again, with March as the most likely timeframe. We are cognizant that the recent US data has disappointed, and that the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow warns that the US economy is tracking 1.3% annualized growth in Q4. A notable headwind that has emerged is ... (full story)