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  • FOMC Statement

    From federalreserve.gov

    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:02pm Dec 16, 2015 2:02pm
No hike?
  • #2
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:04pm Dec 16, 2015 2:04pm
FED hikes 25 bps
More dovish outlook, but key indicator 2YR US paper trades up 3-5 bps for now
you are the creator of your own destiny-Shivyog
  • #3
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:05pm Dec 16, 2015 2:05pm
  •  Trader#2C65
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
0.25
  • #4
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:05pm Dec 16, 2015 2:05pm
Cereal!!
  • #5
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:05pm Dec 16, 2015 2:05pm
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to set the new target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, up from zero to 0.25 percent.
  • #6
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:05pm Dec 16, 2015 2:05pm
The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
Trader from Croatia
  • #7
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:06pm Dec 16, 2015 2:06pm
Quoting missH
No hike?
0,5% but weak response
  • #8
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:06pm Dec 16, 2015 2:06pm
  •  Trader#A776
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
25BP...
  • #9
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:07pm Dec 16, 2015 2:07pm
I hope that the response will be the same on FOMC Press Conference
  • #10
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:07pm Dec 16, 2015 2:07pm
What a pussy cat..pop pop slow fizz. At least my charts didn't get all messed up.
  • #11
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:07pm Dec 16, 2015 2:07pm
Gringos... So many yelling for this? Lets wait for Yell'en..
  • #12
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:08pm Dec 16, 2015 2:08pm
good done Yellen ....market must and must bullish for USD
Follow price direction
  • #13
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:08pm Dec 16, 2015 2:08pm
  •  Trader#2C7D
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Its moving now.
  • #14
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:08pm Dec 16, 2015 2:08pm
this is positive, a hike shows that Fed blv in economic strength of US.. the statement isn't dovish, its neutral as expected.
  • #15
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:10pm Dec 16, 2015 2:10pm
  •  Trader#615D
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
How does this impact the currencies? I'm new to FOREX and I would love to understand what this news exactly did... Anyone want to explain?

Thanks !
  • #16
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:10pm Dec 16, 2015 2:10pm
bullprovements everywhere
  • #17
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:11pm Dec 16, 2015 2:11pm
I woke up at 6am for this? Pft, Yellen you owe me one!
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #18
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:11pm Dec 16, 2015 2:11pm
  •  Trader#21DA
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
This is actually embarrassing!We have more impact in a random NFP! :o says a lot about how people don't gives a shit about fed or yellen anymore! :/
  • #19
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:13pm Dec 16, 2015 2:13pm
  •  Trader#5FDA
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She wants $ weak not bullish. It's a temporary reaction.
  • #20
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:13pm Dec 16, 2015 2:13pm
  •  Trader#DB91
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
The USD hardly rallied upwards and the way people went on about it.
  • #21
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:14pm Dec 16, 2015 2:14pm
Thanks to usa.
  • #22
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:14pm Dec 16, 2015 2:14pm
rate hikes? that means everybody buying USD?
well, i'll be selling then..
LONG ALL xxx/USD!!! who's with me? HAHAHAH
"If you run, you'll only die tired." - Sniper's philosophy
  • #23
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:15pm Dec 16, 2015 2:15pm
Quoting Zemil
0,5% but weak response
Thank you!
  • #24
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:15pm Dec 16, 2015 2:15pm
  •  Trader#2C7D
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Christ whats going on?
  • #25
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:15pm Dec 16, 2015 2:15pm
Quoting tomiko
rate hikes? that means everybody buying USD?
well, i'll be selling then..
LONG ALL xxx/USD!!! who's with me? HAHAHAH
Finally, someone understands it
  • #26
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:16pm Dec 16, 2015 2:16pm
Quoting tomiko
rate hikes? that means everybody buying USD?
well, i'll be selling then..
LONG ALL xxx/USD!!! who's with me? HAHAHAH
Buy JPY.
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #27
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:17pm Dec 16, 2015 2:17pm
Big players are start playing ..... make usd weak
Oooooooooopppppppppssssssss
  • #28
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:18pm Dec 16, 2015 2:18pm
The market was expecting all of this. And this is a PERFECT example of why you don't trade the news.
  • #29
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:18pm Dec 16, 2015 2:18pm
  •  Trader#DB91
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Well you could say it was a Yellen type of upwards rally as it had no gas in it.
  • #30
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:18pm Dec 16, 2015 2:18pm
  •  Trader#D544
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Lol 70 pip drop and then back to normal..... some big news, lets see what happens in the next day.
  • #31
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:20pm Dec 16, 2015 2:20pm
  •  Trader#2C7D
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Think we will see trend formation, no spike.
  • #32
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:21pm Dec 16, 2015 2:21pm
Quoting Crucifix
Big players are start playing ..... make usd weak
This is their gimmick, to pretend as if USD is weakening and send small players losing money or scared away. Soon they'll come back buying the dollar
  • #33
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:21pm Dec 16, 2015 2:21pm
I don`t understand the response
With My Best Wishes
  • #34
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:22pm Dec 16, 2015 2:22pm
FXXK That Short EURUSD , AUDUSD and Gold waiting ti hit the tp
  • #35
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:22pm Dec 16, 2015 2:22pm
Watch out for USD sell off..............to begin !!!!
  • #36
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:23pm Dec 16, 2015 2:23pm
sell crude
  • #37
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:23pm Dec 16, 2015 2:23pm
  •  Trader#2A6A
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
sh****t i push the button accidently and i lost 30 dollors
  • #38
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:23pm Dec 16, 2015 2:23pm
  •  Trader#BB2D
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Never trade what you think .. trade what you see instead
  • #39
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:23pm Dec 16, 2015 2:23pm
  •  Trader#2C7D
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Yes the market is unsure right now, but that can change within the next 1-2h. Pretty sure a trend will form of this.
  • #40
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:24pm Dec 16, 2015 2:24pm
I hope FED must be intervene in the market now because what is on the market right now is not good and fair .... BUY USD.................
Follow price direction
  • #41
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:24pm Dec 16, 2015 2:24pm
Quoting DeeKey
Gringos... So many yelling for this? Lets wait for Yell'en..
yellen dovish cat
  • #42
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:24pm Dec 16, 2015 2:24pm
Silver has just been manipulated! Why the gap down?
  • #43
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:25pm Dec 16, 2015 2:25pm
Quoting hesron
I hope FED must be intervene in the market now because what is on the market right now is not good and fair .... BUY USD.................
???
  • #44
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:25pm Dec 16, 2015 2:25pm
No Fire Work????
  • #45
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:25pm Dec 16, 2015 2:25pm
Never trade what you think .. Trade what you see instead
  • #46
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:25pm Dec 16, 2015 2:25pm
"A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective...."

" Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term...."

"The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run."

Make what you will of it!
  • #47
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:26pm Dec 16, 2015 2:26pm
This sucks!
  • #48
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:26pm Dec 16, 2015 2:26pm
The press conference will say a lot. However, the fact that they hiked the rate is an indication that they have faith in the growth of the economy. USD will definitely appreciate long run no matter the nature of the press conference.
  • #49
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:27pm Dec 16, 2015 2:27pm
mirror now sell
  • #50
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:27pm Dec 16, 2015 2:27pm
Usd bearish trend started
Making Money Is An Art
  • #51
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:29pm Dec 16, 2015 2:29pm
  •  Trader#2C7D
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting PipsCrapper
The press conference will say a lot. However, the fact that they hiked the rate is an indication that they have faith in the growth of the economy. USD will definitely appreciate long run no matter the nature of the press conference.
I agree, strong economy rate up, bull trend will form over 2-3 days.
  • #52
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:29pm Dec 16, 2015 2:29pm
All that waiting for a little spike . lol
  • #53
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:30pm Dec 16, 2015 2:30pm
BUY EURUSD
Making Money Is An Art
  • #54
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:31pm Dec 16, 2015 2:31pm
Way to early to say that anything is bearish or bullish...
  • #55
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:36pm Dec 16, 2015 2:36pm
staying away from this boys.. Just waiting for the major trend to be defined..
  • #56
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:37pm Dec 16, 2015 2:37pm
  •  Trader#2C7D
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Its like a war zone.
  • #57
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:37pm Dec 16, 2015 2:37pm
Good point, rate hike is real, everything else is just spin
Quoting PipsCrapper
The press conference will say a lot. However, the fact that they hiked the rate is an indication that they have faith in the growth of the economy. USD will definitely appreciate long run no matter the nature of the press conference.
  • #58
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:38pm Dec 16, 2015 2:38pm
USD must only go one way after routing all other currencies around the world...for years...

DOWN !!! DOWN !!!! DOWN !!!! DOWN !!!!
  • #59
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:41pm Dec 16, 2015 2:41pm
This is the game of high frequency market (HFT) makers, who process large orders as multiples of small orders without moving the price much in which retail traders can not get any benefit without the market movement. This is the situation HFT MARKET MAKERS WHO ALWAYS RUN THE MARKET FOR THE BENEFITS OF BIG BANKS, BUT TO EXPLOIT RETAIL TRADERS LOSSES. So no market movements, but they have get processed all orders...
  • #60
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:56pm Dec 16, 2015 2:56pm
  •  Trader#E80A
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
stay away from mr. spikey!

wait!!!!!

simple guys, if Interest Rate HIGH - 0.25% to 0.5%

USD/XXX will go up.
XXX/USD will go down.
  • #61
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:57pm Dec 16, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting kolamans
This is the game of high frequency market (HFT) makers, who process large orders as multiples of small orders without moving the price much in which retail traders can not get any benefit without the market movement. This is the situation HFT MARKET MAKERS WHO ALWAYS RUN THE MARKET FOR THE BENEFITS OF BIG BANKS, BUT TO EXPLOIT RETAIL TRADERS LOSSES. So no market movements, but they have get processed all orders...
like like
Making Money Is An Art
  • #62
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  • Dec 16, 2015 2:59pm Dec 16, 2015 2:59pm
  •  Trader#E80A
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Let the market dance first!

if we enter now, the only thing will get is mr. MC...
  • #63
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:00pm Dec 16, 2015 3:00pm
  •  Trader#2C7D
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
No go entering now, better wait for formation.
  • #64
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:02pm Dec 16, 2015 3:02pm
This even is advertised too much. Usd/cad was overbought. It's a mess. Keep the day job.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #65
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:03pm Dec 16, 2015 3:03pm
  •  Trader#C276
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
That inflation target is BS wishful thinking, people have short memories, the reason we are in all this mess was to stop a deflationary spiral. What has changed? answer....nothing !
  • #66
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:04pm Dec 16, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting guest
stay away from mr. Spikey!

Wait!!!!!

Simple guys, if interest rate high - 0.25% to 0.5%

usd/xxx will go up.
Xxx/usd will go down.
it is a naive deduction
Making Money Is An Art
  • #67
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:05pm Dec 16, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting Guest
stay away from mr. spikey!

wait!!!!!

simple guys, if Interest Rate HIGH - 0.25% to 0.5%

USD/XXX will go up.
XXX/USD will go down.
Not so simple dear.
They increased rate HIGH to 0.5% and xxx/USD went UP
USD/xxx went down.

Nothing is simple on forex Need to learn lot of.

But yes, finally dollar should be strong next days i think.
  • #68
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:05pm Dec 16, 2015 3:05pm
  •  Trader#32CB
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
what fformation ....you are expecting ?
  • #69
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:08pm Dec 16, 2015 3:08pm
Quoting tomiko
rate hikes? that means everybody buying USD?
well, i'll be selling then..
LONG ALL xxx/USD!!! who's with me? HAHAHAH
That's pretty funny. Looks like I set the bar too high for an entry on GBPUSD for my long position...whatever.

I'll take profit over regret any day.
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #70
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:08pm Dec 16, 2015 3:08pm
  •  Trader#2C7D
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Could expect a 400 pip move the coming days, but no reason to enter right now, way to much uncertain volatility. Big boys are watching but not decided what to do.
  • #71
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:10pm Dec 16, 2015 3:10pm
till now this is MUCH LESS than what happened with Draghi's conference few days ago, when there was a 3-400 pips movement...

how is it possible that now it all remain close to previous prices??

is it something central banks are actively working at?
  • #72
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:23pm Dec 16, 2015 3:23pm
I see a pin formed on the 15min time frame. EurUsd is going down.
  • #73
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:25pm Dec 16, 2015 3:25pm
  •  Trader#2C7D
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting ducoy
I see a pin formed on the 15min time frame. EurUsd is going down.
Yes but wait for retrace to enter and confirm, atleast I will.
But yes 85% sure EURUSD downtrend forming up.
  • #74
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:25pm Dec 16, 2015 3:25pm
Maybe to 1.075 or further to 1.055. Lets wait and see.
  • #75
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  • Dec 16, 2015 3:29pm Dec 16, 2015 3:29pm
A balanced release with less volatility unlike the acrobatic spin Draghi conferences. Well chosen words to place the USD in a very balanced position.
  • #76
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  • Edited 4:03pm Dec 16, 2015 3:48pm | Edited 4:03pm
Kind of fizzled out in the end. Rate rise will have an effect in coming weeks
Quoting Vincy66
till now this is MUCH LESS than what happened with Draghi's conference few days ago, when there was a 3-400 pips movement...

how is it possible that now it all remain close to previous prices??

is it something central banks are actively working at?

Draghi made what seemed like, to the market, a u turn where as Yellen did what was expected. Surprises always move the market far more.
  • #77
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  • Dec 16, 2015 4:38pm Dec 16, 2015 4:38pm
Am shorting currencies with negative rates against the $
  • #78
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  • Dec 16, 2015 6:53pm Dec 16, 2015 6:53pm
Quoting clockwork71
The market was expecting all of this. And this is a PERFECT example of why you don't trade the news.
exactly

The real news was on the employment numbers for the USD impact which determined the rate rise. And Draghi on the Euro itself. So the USD and EUR news movers are past.

Although futures had this priced in at 75%~, I dont believe that it accurately reflected the confidence participants really had. To me this was as close to a sure thing as you will see in markets.

So a tepid reaction all in all.

If it was bumped over 25bps or less. Then youd see more volatility.

Where are all the doomsday preppers who said this would never happen?
  • #79
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  • Dec 16, 2015 7:13pm Dec 16, 2015 7:13pm
Quoting Guest
That inflation target is BS wishful thinking, people have short memories, the reason we are in all this mess was to stop a deflationary spiral. What has changed? answer....nothing !
How can it be BS? its a target, which is something you aim for or try to achieve.
Its what they want to reach with their policy tools.

If this ''mess'' is ZIRP then it has worked to stop the spiral. We are inflating slow. But not deflating in a spiral, where the deflation is happening.

What has changed? well, since the low of 138 million employed persons in end 2009.
We now have just under 150 million in 6 years. Not bad.
You can whine about part time or the true unemployment % numbers.
Fact. 12 million more jobs.

Average wages have risen from $19hr 2010 avg to $21avg now
  • #80
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2015 9:08pm Dec 16, 2015 9:08pm
Quoting Guest
Let the market dance first!

if we enter now, the only thing will get is mr. MC...
LOL
  • #81
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  • Dec 16, 2015 11:56pm Dec 16, 2015 11:56pm
Future needs to be seen the interaction between USA and Japan (so see Mr. Abe how he will be going to do progressively.).
  • #82
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  • Dec 17, 2015 12:54am Dec 17, 2015 12:54am
Quoting PipsCrapper
The press conference will say a lot. However, the fact that they hiked the rate is an indication that they have faith in the growth of the economy. USD will definitely appreciate long run no matter the nature of the press conference.
Same happened when FED stopped the QE. Everyone was shorting EUR like crazy and it went up to 1.3993 instead.

If the market reactions were that straightforward as you explain - there would be a lot of millionaires in this site. Honestly - I don't think there are many here :-).
  • #83
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  • Dec 17, 2015 12:56am Dec 17, 2015 12:56am
Quoting RideTheWave
How can it be BS? its a target, which is something you aim for or try to achieve.
Its what they want to reach with their policy tools.

If this ''mess'' is ZIRP then it has worked to stop the spiral. We are inflating slow. But not deflating in a spiral, where the deflation is happening.

What has changed? well, since the low of 138 million employed persons in end 2009.
We now have just under 150 million in 6 years. Not bad.
You can whine about part time or the true unemployment % numbers.
Fact. 12 million more jobs.

Average wages have...
My friends in all society classes in US do not depict the rosy pictures you say - under the surface things are not honey and butter.
  • #84
  • Quote
  • Dec 17, 2015 1:25am Dec 17, 2015 1:25am
Quoting michaelpelly
My friends in all society classes in US do not depict the rosy pictures you say - under the surface things are not honey and butter.
no, not honey and butter, but yellen says enough to justify raising rates. Ie the down risk is less than if the fed had to raise fast due to inflation coming on quick. unless data drops off big time......dot plot should hold as of now, which means dollar up due to future hikes getting partially priced in.....
  • #85
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  • Dec 17, 2015 1:31am Dec 17, 2015 1:31am
Quoting CoolJL
Kind of fizzled out in the end. Rate rise will have an effect in coming weeks


Draghi made what seemed like, to the market, a u turn where as Yellen did what was expected. Surprises always move the market far more.

you bet......... watch the money positioning, here comes the start of a trend! get ready!
  • #86
  • Quote
  • Dec 17, 2015 2:46pm Dec 17, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting michaelpelly
My friends in all society classes in US do not depict the rosy pictures you say - under the surface things are not honey and butter.

What is a society class? Specifically.

My argument that we are not in a deflationary spiral does not mean I'm saying we are in a rosy buttery upward spiral.
I said we are basically at neutral but finally leaning towards better inflation.

That data is data. I'm not misrepresenting.
Although. Before the financial crisis we have 147 million employed persons. So the 12million growth is 3 million if going back before.

I stand by my point though. That since ZIRP we have gained 12 million. It does not look good that we were at zero. But it had to be done and it worked.

Avoiding a HUGE crisis is an enormous win. It is unrealistic to try to get to a trend growth that caused our pop. We are lucky to be able to complain about 2% growth given what could have happened.

I am with Bernanke that we need way more Fiscal help.
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