FOMC Statement | Forex Factory

FOMC Statement | Forex Factory

FOMC Statement

From federalreserve.gov

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent ... (full story)

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Dec 16, 2015 11:54pm

Quoting PipsCrapper

Disliked

The press conference will say a lot. However, the fact that they hiked the rate is an indication that they have faith in the growth of the economy. USD will definitely appreciate long run no matter the nature of the press conference.

Ignored

Same happened when FED stopped the QE. Everyone was shorting EUR like crazy and it went up to 1.3993 instead.

If the market reactions were that straightforward as you explain - there would be a lot of millionaires in this site. Honestly - I don't think there are many here :-).

Dec 16, 2015 11:56pm

Quoting RideTheWave

Disliked

How can it be BS? its a target, which is something you aim for or try to achieve.
Its what they want to reach with their policy tools.

If this ''mess'' is ZIRP then it has worked to stop the spiral. We are inflating slow. But not deflating in a spiral, where the deflation is happening.

What has changed? well, since the low of 138 million employed persons in end 2009.
We now have just under 150 million in 6 years. Not bad.
You can whine about part time or the true unemployment % numbers.
Fact. 12 million more jobs.

Average wages have...

Ignored

My friends in all society classes in US do not depict the rosy pictures you say - under the surface things are not honey and butter.

Dec 16, 2015 5:53pm

Quoting clockwork71

Disliked

The market was expecting all of this. And this is a PERFECT example of why you don't trade the news.

Ignored

exactly

The real news was on the employment numbers for the USD impact which determined the rate rise. And Draghi on the Euro itself. So the USD and EUR news movers are past.

Although futures had this priced in at 75%~, I dont believe that it accurately reflected the confidence participants really had. To me this was as close to a sure thing as you will see in markets.

So a tepid reaction all in all.

If it was bumped over 25bps or less. Then youd see more volatility.

Where are all the doomsday preppers who said this would never happen?

Dec 16, 2015 6:13pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

That inflation target is BS wishful thinking, people have short memories, the reason we are in all this mess was to stop a deflationary spiral. What has changed? answer....nothing !

Ignored

How can it be BS? its a target, which is something you aim for or try to achieve.
Its what they want to reach with their policy tools.

If this ''mess'' is ZIRP then it has worked to stop the spiral. We are inflating slow. But not deflating in a spiral, where the deflation is happening.

What has changed? well, since the low of 138 million employed persons in end 2009.
We now have just under 150 million in 6 years. Not bad.
You can whine about part time or the true unemployment % numbers.
Fact. 12 million more jobs.

Average wages have risen from $19hr 2010 avg to $21avg now

Dec 17, 2015 1:46pm

Quoting michaelpelly

Disliked

My friends in all society classes in US do not depict the rosy pictures you say - under the surface things are not honey and butter.

Ignored

What is a society class? Specifically.

My argument that we are not in a deflationary spiral does not mean I'm saying we are in a rosy buttery upward spiral.
I said we are basically at neutral but finally leaning towards better inflation.

That data is data. I'm not misrepresenting.
Although. Before the financial crisis we have 147 million employed persons. So the 12million growth is 3 million if going back before.

I stand by my point though. That since ZIRP we have gained 12 million. It does not look good that we were at zero. But it had to be done and it worked.

Avoiding a HUGE crisis is an enormous win. It is unrealistic to try to get to a trend growth that caused our pop. We are lucky to be able to complain about 2% growth given what could have happened.

I am with Bernanke that we need way more Fiscal help.

Dec 16, 2015 2:05pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

stay away from mr. spikey!

wait!!!!!

simple guys, if Interest Rate HIGH - 0.25% to 0.5%

USD/XXX will go up.
XXX/USD will go down.

Ignored

Not so simple dear.
They increased rate HIGH to 0.5% and xxx/USD went UP
USD/xxx went down.

Nothing is simple on forex

Need to learn lot of.

But yes, finally dollar should be strong next days i think.

Dec 16, 2015 2:08pm

Quoting tomiko

Disliked

rate hikes? that means everybody buying USD?
well, i'll be selling then..
LONG ALL xxx/USD!!! who's with me? HAHAHAH

Ignored

That's pretty funny. Looks like I set the bar too high for an entry on GBPUSD for my long position...whatever.

I'll take profit over regret any day.

Dec 17, 2015 12:25am

Quoting michaelpelly

Disliked

My friends in all society classes in US do not depict the rosy pictures you say - under the surface things are not honey and butter.

Ignored

no, not honey and butter, but yellen says enough to justify raising rates. Ie the down risk is less than if the fed had to raise fast due to inflation coming on quick. unless data drops off big time......dot plot should hold as of now, which means dollar up due to future hikes getting partially priced in.....

Dec 17, 2015 12:31am

Quoting CoolJL

Disliked

Kind of fizzled out in the end. Rate rise will have an effect in coming weeks

Draghi made what seemed like, to the market, a u turn where as Yellen did what was expected. Surprises always move the market far more.

Ignored

you bet......... watch the money positioning, here comes the start of a trend! get ready!

Dec 16, 2015 1:05pm

The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

Dec 16, 2015 1:08pm

good done Yellen ....market must and must bullish for USD

Dec 16, 2015 1:24pm

I hope FED must be intervene in the market now because what is on the market right now is not good and fair .... BUY USD.................

Dec 16, 2015 2:02pm

This even is advertised too much. Usd/cad was overbought. It's a mess. Keep the day job.

Dec 16, 2015 1:27pm

mirror now sell

Dec 16, 2015 1:25pm

No Fire Work????

Dec 16, 2015 2:23pm

I see a pin formed on the 15min time frame. EurUsd is going down.

Dec 16, 2015 2:25pm

Maybe to 1.075 or further to 1.055. Lets wait and see.

Dec 16, 2015 8:08pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

Let the market dance first!

if we enter now, the only thing will get is mr. MC...

Ignored

LOL

Dec 16, 2015 1:37pm

Good point, rate hike is real, everything else is just spin

Quoting PipsCrapper

Disliked

The press conference will say a lot. However, the fact that they hiked the rate is an indication that they have faith in the growth of the economy. USD will definitely appreciate long run no matter the nature of the press conference.

Ignored

Dec 16, 2015 1:24pm

Quoting DeeKey

Disliked

Gringos... So many yelling for this? Lets wait for Yell'en..

Ignored

yellen dovish cat

Dec 16, 2015 1:25pm

Quoting hesron

Disliked

I hope FED must be intervene in the market now because what is on the market right now is not good and fair .... BUY USD.................

Ignored

???

Dec 16, 2015 1:10pm

bullprovements everywhere

Dec 16, 2015 10:56pm

Future needs to be seen the interaction between USA and Japan (so see Mr. Abe how he will be going to do progressively.).

Dec 16, 2015 1:14pm

rate hikes? that means everybody buying USD?
well, i'll be selling then..
LONG ALL xxx/USD!!! who's with me? HAHAHAH

Dec 16, 2015 1:22pm

Watch out for USD sell off..............to begin !!!!

Dec 16, 2015 1:38pm

USD must only go one way after routing all other currencies around the world...for years...

DOWN !!! DOWN !!!! DOWN !!!! DOWN !!!!

Dec 16, 2015 1:31pm

Way to early to say that anything is bearish or bullish...

Dec 16, 2015 1:11pm

I woke up at 6am for this? Pft, Yellen you owe me one!

Dec 16, 2015 1:16pm

Quoting tomiko

Disliked

rate hikes? that means everybody buying USD?
well, i'll be selling then..
LONG ALL xxx/USD!!! who's with me? HAHAHAH

Ignored

Buy JPY.

Dec 16, 2015 1:29pm

All that waiting for a little spike . lol

Dec 16, 2015 1:22pm

FXXK That Short EURUSD , AUDUSD and Gold waiting ti hit the tp

Dec 16, 2015 1:17pm

Big players are start playing ..... make usd weak

Dec 16, 2015 1:21pm

Quoting Crucifix

Disliked

Big players are start playing ..... make usd weak

Ignored

This is their gimmick, to pretend as if USD is weakening and send small players losing money or scared away. Soon they'll come back buying the dollar

Dec 16, 2015 1:25pm

"A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective...."

" Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term...."

"The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run."

Make what you will of it!

Dec 16, 2015 1:26pm

The press conference will say a lot. However, the fact that they hiked the rate is an indication that they have faith in the growth of the economy. USD will definitely appreciate long run no matter the nature of the press conference.

Dec 16, 2015 1:41pm

This is the game of high frequency market (HFT) makers, who process large orders as multiples of small orders without moving the price much in which retail traders can not get any benefit without the market movement. This is the situation HFT MARKET MAKERS WHO ALWAYS RUN THE MARKET FOR THE BENEFITS OF BIG BANKS, BUT TO EXPLOIT RETAIL TRADERS LOSSES. So no market movements, but they have get processed all orders...

Dec 16, 2015 1:57pm

Quoting kolamans

Disliked

This is the game of high frequency market (HFT) makers, who process large orders as multiples of small orders without moving the price much in which retail traders can not get any benefit without the market movement. This is the situation HFT MARKET MAKERS WHO ALWAYS RUN THE MARKET FOR THE BENEFITS OF BIG BANKS, BUT TO EXPLOIT RETAIL TRADERS LOSSES. So no market movements, but they have get processed all orders...

Ignored

like like

Dec 16, 2015 2:10pm

till now this is MUCH LESS than what happened with Draghi's conference few days ago, when there was a 3-400 pips movement...

how is it possible that now it all remain close to previous prices??

is it something central banks are actively working at?

Dec 16, 2015 2:48pm — Edited

Kind of fizzled out in the end. Rate rise will have an effect in coming weeks

Quoting Vincy66

Disliked

till now this is MUCH LESS than what happened with Draghi's conference few days ago, when there was a 3-400 pips movement...

how is it possible that now it all remain close to previous prices??

is it something central banks are actively working at?

Ignored

Draghi made what seemed like, to the market, a u turn where as Yellen did what was expected. Surprises always move the market far more.

Dec 16, 2015 1:02pm

No hike?

Dec 16, 2015 1:15pm

Quoting Zemil

Disliked

0,5% but weak response

Ignored

Thank you!

Dec 16, 2015 1:24pm

Silver has just been manipulated! Why the gap down?

Dec 16, 2015 1:26pm

This sucks!

Dec 16, 2015 1:08pm

this is positive, a hike shows that Fed blv in economic strength of US.. the statement isn't dovish, its neutral as expected.

Dec 16, 2015 1:23pm

sell crude

Dec 16, 2015 1:04pm

FED hikes 25 bps
More dovish outlook, but key indicator 2YR US paper trades up 3-5 bps for now

Dec 16, 2015 1:05pm

Cereal!!

Dec 16, 2015 1:05pm

The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to set the new target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, up from zero to 0.25 percent.

Dec 16, 2015 1:06pm

Quoting missH

Disliked

No hike?

Ignored

0,5% but weak response

Dec 16, 2015 1:07pm

I hope that the response will be the same on FOMC Press Conference

Dec 16, 2015 1:07pm

What a pussy cat..pop pop slow fizz. At least my charts didn't get all messed up.

Dec 16, 2015 1:07pm

Gringos... So many yelling for this? Lets wait for Yell'en..

Dec 16, 2015 1:14pm

Thanks to usa.

Dec 16, 2015 1:15pm

Quoting tomiko

Disliked

rate hikes? that means everybody buying USD?
well, i'll be selling then..
LONG ALL xxx/USD!!! who's with me? HAHAHAH

Ignored

Finally, someone understands it

Dec 16, 2015 1:18pm

The market was expecting all of this. And this is a PERFECT example of why you don't trade the news.

Dec 16, 2015 1:21pm

I don`t understand the response

Dec 16, 2015 1:25pm

Never trade what you think .. Trade what you see instead

Dec 16, 2015 1:27pm

Usd bearish trend started

Trader#2C7D

Dec 16, 2015 1:29pm

Quoting PipsCrapper

Disliked

The press conference will say a lot. However, the fact that they hiked the rate is an indication that they have faith in the growth of the economy. USD will definitely appreciate long run no matter the nature of the press conference.

Ignored

I agree, strong economy rate up, bull trend will form over 2-3 days.

Dec 16, 2015 1:30pm

BUY EURUSD

Dec 16, 2015 1:36pm

staying away from this boys.. Just waiting for the major trend to be defined..

Dec 16, 2015 2:04pm

Quoting guest

Disliked

stay away from mr. Spikey!

Wait!!!!!

Simple guys, if interest rate high - 0.25% to 0.5%

usd/xxx will go up.
Xxx/usd will go down.

Ignored

it is a naive deduction

Trader#2C7D

Dec 16, 2015 2:25pm

Quoting ducoy

Disliked

I see a pin formed on the 15min time frame. EurUsd is going down.

Ignored

Yes but wait for retrace to enter and confirm, atleast I will.
But yes 85% sure EURUSD downtrend forming up.

Dec 16, 2015 2:29pm

A balanced release with less volatility unlike the acrobatic spin Draghi conferences. Well chosen words to place the USD in a very balanced position.

Dec 16, 2015 3:38pm

Am shorting currencies with negative rates against the $

Trader#2C65

Dec 16, 2015 1:05pm

0.25

Trader#A776

Dec 16, 2015 1:06pm

25BP...

Trader#2C7D

Dec 16, 2015 1:08pm

Its moving now.

Trader#615D

Dec 16, 2015 1:10pm

How does this impact the currencies? I'm new to FOREX and I would love to understand what this news exactly did... Anyone want to explain?

Thanks !

Trader#21DA

Dec 16, 2015 1:11pm

This is actually embarrassing!We have more impact in a random NFP! :o says a lot about how people don't gives a shit about fed or yellen anymore! :/

Trader#5FDA

Dec 16, 2015 1:13pm

She wants $ weak not bullish. It's a temporary reaction.

Trader#DB91

Dec 16, 2015 1:13pm

The USD hardly rallied upwards and the way people went on about it.

Trader#2C7D

Dec 16, 2015 1:15pm

Christ whats going on?

Trader#DB91

Dec 16, 2015 1:18pm

Well you could say it was a Yellen type of upwards rally as it had no gas in it.

Trader#D544

Dec 16, 2015 1:18pm

Lol 70 pip drop and then back to normal..... some big news, lets see what happens in the next day.

Trader#2C7D

Dec 16, 2015 1:20pm

Think we will see trend formation, no spike.

Trader#2A6A

Dec 16, 2015 1:23pm

sh****t i push the button accidently and i lost 30 dollors

Trader#BB2D

Dec 16, 2015 1:23pm

Never trade what you think .. trade what you see instead

Trader#2C7D

Dec 16, 2015 1:23pm

Yes the market is unsure right now, but that can change within the next 1-2h. Pretty sure a trend will form of this.

Trader#2C7D

Dec 16, 2015 1:37pm

Its like a war zone.

Trader#E80A

Dec 16, 2015 1:56pm

stay away from mr. spikey!

wait!!!!!

simple guys, if Interest Rate HIGH - 0.25% to 0.5%

USD/XXX will go up.
XXX/USD will go down.

Trader#E80A

Dec 16, 2015 1:59pm

Let the market dance first!

if we enter now, the only thing will get is mr. MC...

Trader#2C7D

Dec 16, 2015 2:00pm

No go entering now, better wait for formation.

Trader#C276

Dec 16, 2015 2:03pm

That inflation target is BS wishful thinking, people have short memories, the reason we are in all this mess was to stop a deflationary spiral. What has changed? answer....nothing !

Trader#32CB

Dec 16, 2015 2:05pm

what fformation ....you are expecting ?

Trader#2C7D

Dec 16, 2015 2:08pm

Could expect a 400 pip move the coming days, but no reason to enter right now, way to much uncertain volatility. Big boys are watching but not decided what to do.

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Dec 16, 2015 1:00pm
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High Impact Breaking

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Linked events:

US FOMC Economic Projections

US FOMC Statement

US FOMC Press Conference