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Oil recovery by 2017? Not likely
Energy analysts are confidently predicting that oil prices will rebound by 2017, as global supply and demand come back into balance. "Buy for the long run" is once again Wall Street's over-used mantra. Economists John Maynard Keynes once notably remarked, "in the long run, we are all dead." This long-run thinking defies the logic of the oil markets. Not only has oil been among the most volatile commodities in modern economic history, it also has a tendency to spike, crash and then remain depressed for years on end. Analysts have focused on the 18-month decline that has seen crude-oil prices drop from $107 in June ... (full story)
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