-
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD: How To Trade FOMC? - Danske
Given that we look for no hike in September and consequently think the FOMC will take the 2015 median Fed Funds ‘dot’ down to signal just one hike this year and lower the end 2016 median rate ’dot’, we believe the USD will come under pressure near term given that the market is pricing a non-negligible probability of a hike this month (some 25%). Looking at the betas from our Danske Bank Short-Term Financial Models, we observe that EUR/USD appears most sensitive to relative rates (2Y swap spread) among the G3 currencies and although a positive beta to risk appetite (Vix volatility), as mentioned above, ... (full story)