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  • The Case For Tactical EUR Rally; Where To Target? - Morgan Stanley

    From efxnews.com

    As the EUR enters a period of relief from the major bearish trend, Morgan Stanley has turned tactically bullish on the single currency attempting to buy EUR/USD on dips for more than a week. In a note to clients today, MS outlines the case for this ongoing EUR rally projecting its potential target in the near-term along with its year-end target for the pair. 1- "Strong investment outflows from the eurozone since the beginning of the year, and the use of EUR as a global funding currency, not just for portfolio investment but also for longerterm business investment, were major contributing factors to the EUR’s steep ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Aug 21, 2015 1:00am Aug 21, 2015 1:00am
Shameless incompetent muppets, a few days ago they were calling for EUR/USD to go down, what a joke, self face slap
  • #2
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  • Aug 21, 2015 1:06am Aug 21, 2015 1:06am
lol, not worth taking longs now and on the assumption of hitting 1.15. Might want to sucker people in before a plunge.
  • #3
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  • Aug 21, 2015 1:27am Aug 21, 2015 1:27am
I think the verb is misplaced - it was "targeted". The point of a speculation is to be correct in price and time - not to start buying when 80% of the up move is expelled.
  • #4
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  • Aug 21, 2015 1:29am Aug 21, 2015 1:29am
Quoting gc44
lol, not worth taking longs now and on the assumption of hitting 1.15. Might want to sucker people in before a plunge.
Correct.

The time for long was at 1.07xx, to reap profits at 1.13. Hopping on 1.13 is pointless.
  • #5
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  • Aug 21, 2015 1:34am Aug 21, 2015 1:34am
brilliant part is morgan Stanley suggests 1.05 by year end. watch out bulls. the relief rally maybe peaking soon. I have 1.14/1.1450 level as the top of the wedged range.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
  • #6
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  • Aug 21, 2015 1:36am Aug 21, 2015 1:36am
all bluff ...may be now they are looking to short..let come french,german data..
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
  • #7
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  • Aug 21, 2015 1:42am Aug 21, 2015 1:42am
What is ironic is the fact that When FOMC Minutes came out, it was only a summarized recording of what was discussed in July, of course in July they haven't hinted at September hikes, but my concern is the fact that August figures in the US were improving and we have yet to see how the Fed Interprets that. yesterday US data was also good but largely ignored, goes to tell me this is still an illiquid market with market makers driving the price. so fundamentals are largely neglected in this market.

one thing I know for sure is that this thing won't last long now. 1.14xx Is an area im watching for. Draghi is well known to talk down the Euro around that area....

Whats surprising is that we have not heard much from Europe this summer months.... about time for them to re-emerge to take back the media bashing centre stage.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
  • #8
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  • Aug 21, 2015 1:44am Aug 21, 2015 1:44am
Ouch! already at 1.1287
  • #9
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  • Aug 21, 2015 1:47am Aug 21, 2015 1:47am
Quoting fxtyrant
brilliant part is morgan Stanley suggests 1.05 by year end. watch out bulls. the relief rally maybe peaking soon. I have 1.14/1.1450 level as the top of the wedged range.
I Agree, looks like it might hit 1.14-1.1450 before going down. 1.15 seems a little high
we shall see.
  • #10
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  • Aug 21, 2015 2:58am Aug 21, 2015 2:58am
Quoting michaelpelly
I think the verb is misplaced - it was "targeted". The point of a speculation is to be correct in price and time - not to start buying when 80% of the up move is expelled.
I totally agree. It seems to me when the big guys say go one way just look at chart and supply/demand levels and then buy on demand level or sell on supply level Invariably they want everyone to do what they say not what they do!
Happy trading
  • #11
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  • Aug 21, 2015 5:56am Aug 21, 2015 5:56am
It is very eazy for Big banks to mess with technical pictures, but their views are half fundamental, so the message is getting too controversial. Coming out with parity target earlier and chaning the direction quite soon is unreliable.
  • #12
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  • Aug 21, 2015 8:14am Aug 21, 2015 8:14am
Play against the direction what big banks say.They simply mislead the market trend for us, but they are doing the right thing at home...often they speak in both ends...
  • #13
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  • Aug 21, 2015 8:44am Aug 21, 2015 8:44am
1.1330 will be just about enough for this run up.
  • #14
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  • Aug 21, 2015 9:21am Aug 21, 2015 9:21am
...but with the short/long ratio on €/$ at 35/65 there's just too much money to be made by the Market Makers.
  • #15
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  • Aug 21, 2015 9:29am Aug 21, 2015 9:29am
expecting to break 1.1450 level soon
  • #16
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  • Aug 21, 2015 12:09pm Aug 21, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting pippiphooray
1.1330 will be just about enough for this run up.
I have to admit this flight to quality scenario is one that I did not expect. 1.1350 is just another stop on the pain train for shorts! Good luck if you are going to gut this out as a short.
  • #17
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  • Aug 21, 2015 1:02pm Aug 21, 2015 1:02pm
  •  Trader#93EF
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
i think the upper move its done for today
  • #18
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  • Aug 24, 2015 8:29am Aug 24, 2015 8:29am
Quoting pippiphooray
I have to admit this flight to quality scenario is one that I did not expect. 1.1350 is just another stop on the pain train for shorts! Good luck if you are going to gut this out as a short.
"Safe Haven Curency..." hard to believe, but more difficult to argue with! Good luck today!

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/is-the-euro-the-new-safe-haven.html
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Aug 20, 2015 11:50pm
  • Submitted by:
     eFx Newz
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 18  /  Views: 8,230