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  • Fed seen raising rates in October as job market firms

    From reuters.com

    After an unexpected surge in U.S. job gains in May, traders are now betting the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates as soon as October. Federal fund futures contracts show that traders see a 52 percent chance that the first Fed rate hike will come at the Fed's second-to-last meeting of the year, based on CME FedWatch, which tracks rate hike expectations using its Fed funds futures contracts. Before Friday's report on May jobs, traders appeared convinced that the Fed would need to wait until at least December and perhaps into next year before removing any of its monetary policy accommodation. An October ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Jun 5, 2015 10:25am Jun 5, 2015 10:25am
sounds most likely
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #2
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  • Jun 5, 2015 10:34am Jun 5, 2015 10:34am
But unemployment rate increased.
Fed will not hike rate in this year. You guys should stop giving the market false hope.
I can't trust any of you since it's money related and all of you want it.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #3
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  • Jun 5, 2015 10:40am Jun 5, 2015 10:40am
Just trolling before Dudley's speak
  • #4
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  • Jun 5, 2015 10:43am Jun 5, 2015 10:43am
"....traders are now betting the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates as soon as October." -

Where is the proof of this?

"Traders" are betting on this? In what way? In what amounts? They say "this" shows "that"! Really? I think this is totally unsubstantiated bullshit from reuters, a known "Talking Head" for the "Thieves of Wall Street" that have trying for many months now to put pressure on the FED to raise rates. And this is just another episode in their long litany of lies, so far as I am concerned.
  • #5
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  • Jun 5, 2015 10:47am Jun 5, 2015 10:47am
Quoting traderathome
"....traders are now betting the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates as soon as October." -

Where is the proof of this?

"Traders" are betting on this? In what way? In what amounts? I think this is totally unsubstantiated bullshit from reuters, a known "Talking Head" for the "Thieves of Wall Street" that have trying for many months now to put pressure on the FED to raise rates. And this is just another episode in their long litany of lies, so far as I am concerned.
Thumbs up
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #6
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  • Jun 5, 2015 10:49am Jun 5, 2015 10:49am
  •  Trader#737E
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting traderathome
"....traders are now betting the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates as soon as October." -

Where is the proof of this?

"Traders" are betting on this? In what way? In what amounts? I think this is totally unsubstantiated bullshit from reuters, a known "Talking Head" for the "Thieves of Wall Street" that have trying for many months now to put pressure on the FED to raise rates. And this is just another episode in their long litany of lies, so far as I am concerned.
The fed funds futures curve....take a look sometime.
  • #7
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  • Jun 5, 2015 10:56am Jun 5, 2015 10:56am
I guess they needed to make up a story to "explain" the USD surge after NFP... the more we learn to filter out such garbage, the better traders we'll become...
  • #8
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  • Jun 5, 2015 11:44am Jun 5, 2015 11:44am
  •  Trader#4D2B
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting forexings
But unemployment rate increased.
Fed will not hike rate in this year. You guys should stop giving the market false hope.
I can't trust any of you since it's money related and all of you want it.
The participation rate went up, if more than the NFP increased the number employed then unemployment rate can go up even when NFP figures go up.

Either a bunch of school-leavers have joined in, or a bunch of oldies have decided to go back to work. Mainly though - the figures are 'adjusted' so just a roulette really.
  • #9
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  • Jun 5, 2015 1:35pm Jun 5, 2015 1:35pm
ROFLMAO! The merry-go-round never stops.
  • #10
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  • Jun 5, 2015 1:36pm Jun 5, 2015 1:36pm
Quoting Guest
The participation rate went up, if more than the NFP increased the number employed then unemployment rate can go up even when NFP figures go up.

Either a bunch of school-leavers have joined in, or a bunch of oldies have decided to go back to work. Mainly though - the figures are 'adjusted' so just a roulette really.
The oldies were forced to go back to work for minimum wage years ago.
  • #11
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  • Jun 5, 2015 1:38pm Jun 5, 2015 1:38pm
What happened to June hike that was "100%" certain? :-)
  • #12
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  • Jun 5, 2015 1:47pm Jun 5, 2015 1:47pm
SO what happen to the Sept rate hike? WHy suddenly now delay to Oct. So next month come rate hike push back down to Nov?
  • #13
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  • Jun 5, 2015 3:17pm Jun 5, 2015 3:17pm
  •  Trader#E245
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
If you meant Sep 2014 you would also had a point. Remember, there was talk last year about a possiblity of Sep 2014 rate hike.
Then after Draghi crashed Euro with printing, the US rate hike was quoted coming in Nov for sure...lol...
but then with the rethoric, it moved this time really for sure for early 2015...lol (again of course)...
Then it moved to April really, really, and really for sure... lol (really and rally)...
Then it moved again (surprise, surprise) to June 2015 with the certainity of about 90%, -- really, super really mearly for sure this time around...
And then some kind of pause of wait and see, and then came what you are talking about Spe 2015, with no-joke-this-time-is-for-sure...lol...
And now it is October, nay? ... really, really, really...lol....
They have been playing people that is: theordinary people who have money in the stocks, or better to say in their 401Ks predominantly, trying to have them leave billions and billions in the stock market with this rate-but-not-yet-but-very-soon-rate-hike game....

Now I am due to state my prediction given all the above - fair enough...
Rate hike in October 2015?
No.
When?
With this economy and this FED speak play, I do not forsee any rate hike in a closer future, say not for a year from now for sure. After that, we will have to re-evaluate...
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