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  • Talkin' and Yellen: Understanding the Fed

    From marctomarket.com

    As the stock market prepares to close later today, Yellen will deliver a speech on the new normal for monetary policy at a conference hosted by the San Francisco Federal Reserve, of which she was previously the President. The question on many lips today is whether she will be more hawkish than she was at the press conference following the FOMC meeting. This begs the question. Many people in the market understood her to be dovish, but we were and remain less sanguine. Yellen (and Fischer) have emphasized the data dependency of the Fed's course, and some investors may not be persuaded until stronger data are reported. ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Mar 27, 2015 9:31am Mar 27, 2015 9:31am
She will talk dovish, act hawkish
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #2
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  • Mar 27, 2015 9:39am Mar 27, 2015 9:39am
Old marasmus bitch which talks bs.
  • #3
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  • Mar 27, 2015 9:40am Mar 27, 2015 9:40am
It does not matter what she says or does. Not for traders. We trade the charts. Things that happen, happen. And charts change. And trading opportunities arise.

Traders never need to worry about knowing what will happen. For one thing, we can't know what will happen. For another thing, whatever happens is not a mandate on the market makers. The market makers are the key. And they will get around to doing any "translating" of events to charts. And they will do this in whatever manner they decide to do this. Which is not necessarily the way everyone thinks they will do this.

For traders, it is the charts that only matter, not fundamentals nor "news" that everyone thinks will change fundamentals. Only the charts matter.
  • #4
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  • Mar 27, 2015 9:42am Mar 27, 2015 9:42am
exactly
Thirteen times I have been rich and poor
  • #5
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  • Mar 27, 2015 9:55am Mar 27, 2015 9:55am
Quoting traderathome
It does not matter what she says or does. Not for traders. We trade the charts. Things that happen, happen. And charts change. And trading opportunities arise.

Traders never need to worry about knowing what will happen. For one thing, we can't know what will happen. For another thing, whatever happens is not a mandate on the market makers. The market makers are the key. And they will get around to doing any "translating" of events to charts. And they will do this in whatever manner they decide to do this. Which is not necessarily...
so whats yous chart telling you now..... usd short or long...... mine is usd long specially gbp and aud short
  • #6
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  • Mar 27, 2015 10:02am Mar 27, 2015 10:02am
Bring home Ben!!!
  • #7
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  • Mar 27, 2015 10:54am Mar 27, 2015 10:54am
Yup Helicopter Ben is the best!!!
  • #8
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  • Mar 27, 2015 11:08am Mar 27, 2015 11:08am
  •  Trader#6E24
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Fundamental only matters most. Few basic technical set up but its fundamental that drives. In this current situation Yellen may not act hastily to fuel up USD rally. The quick rally of USD may also not favorable for sooner rate hikes. We will see. Bet on Yellen's dovish .
  • #9
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  • Mar 27, 2015 11:23am Mar 27, 2015 11:23am
  •  Trader#4D4C
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
When Yellen last spoke at the FOMC press conference the EUR and the GBP soared over 450 pips in an hour. There is not a chart in the world that predicted that move. I trade on technical analysis but I recognize that some fundamentals can throw a monkey wrench into analysis in the short term.
  • #10
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  • Mar 27, 2015 1:01pm Mar 27, 2015 1:01pm
One must have an understanding of what is said by the primary central bankers of the world. Yes, we do trade our charts, but fundamental understanding of fundamental analysis does have its place. We could never have predicted the comments that Yellen gave (more of a fundamental), which moved the e/u pair hundreds of pips in a min. We now use that information, which has been priced into the markets, to formulate our technical analysis. It is of benefit to know which direction the tide is heading, either in/out (bull/bear etc),, and make $$$ on the waves and ripples.

Go on, and get some!
  • #11
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  • Mar 27, 2015 2:01pm Mar 27, 2015 2:01pm
  •  Trader#3C2F
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting traderathome
It does not matter what she says or does. Not for traders. We trade the charts. Things that happen, happen. And charts change. And trading opportunities arise.

Traders never need to worry about knowing what will happen. For one thing, we can't know what will happen. For another thing, whatever happens is not a mandate on the market makers. The market makers are the key. And they will get around to doing any "translating" of events to charts. And they will do this in whatever manner they decide to do this. Which is not necessarily...



hey, Are you for real?
Quoting traderathome
It does not matter what she says or does. Not for traders. We trade the charts. Things that happen, happen. And charts change. And trading opportunities arise.

Traders never need to worry about knowing what will happen. For one thing, we can't know what will happen. For another thing, whatever happens is not a mandate on the market makers. The market makers are the key. And they will get around to doing any "translating" of events to charts. And they will do this in whatever manner they decide to do this. Which is not necessarily...
I have one piece of advice for you: stop trading; youll save yourself money and time
  • #12
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  • Mar 27, 2015 2:31pm Mar 27, 2015 2:31pm
@TaH, Yup! Talking is cheap!!

I have just exited my trade with a little loss as the market might be very volatile when Mrs. Yellen speaks.

Risk management is very important in trading. If you knew the market might be influenced by an occasion, why would you blindly follow your chart? .... makes no sense.

One must also ask, why she preferred speaking on FRIDAY afternoon, two hours into market closing?. The alarm bells of any trader must be ringing considering these facts.

Happy Trading all
  • #13
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  • Mar 27, 2015 3:12pm Mar 27, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting pippiphooray
One must have an understanding of what is said by the primary central bankers of the world. Yes, we do trade our charts, but fundamental understanding of fundamental analysis does have its place. We could never have predicted the comments that Yellen gave (more of a fundamental), which moved the e/u pair hundreds of pips in a min. We now use that information, which has been priced into the markets, to formulate our technical analysis. It is of benefit to know which direction the tide is heading, either in/out (bull/bear etc),, and make $$$ on...
You're 100% right, I'm trading solely on what the charts say, but cannot ignore what's going on in the background, because the herd effect is so big in this game that you have to look ahead of the charts, judging where the market will go as soon as sanity returns.
  • #14
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  • Mar 27, 2015 3:32pm Mar 27, 2015 3:32pm
so whats plan and how do we trade this event...as to make the most and go home with lots of pips
  • #15
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  • Mar 27, 2015 5:50pm Mar 27, 2015 5:50pm
Quoting Guest
When Yellen last spoke at the FOMC press conference the EUR and the GBP soared over 450 pips in an hour. There is not a chart in the world that predicted that move. I trade on technical analysis but I recognize that some fundamentals can throw a monkey wrench into analysis in the short term.
So true.

The relationship between TA & FA is kind of simple if you realize that technicals are always backward looking & fundamentals are forward looking.

Many years ago an elderly lady ran into the side of my car because she was worried about a car that was riding up on her from behind.

Obviously, it's kind of handy to look at both the rear view mirror & in front of you when you're driving, or trading, for that matter.

Best wishes to all!

Trade well.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #16
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  • Mar 27, 2015 7:16pm Mar 27, 2015 7:16pm
Very nicely put. I have reached the stage in my trading that a lot of what I do now is automatic. Your analogy is very good. Thanks


Quoting Ever E. Man
So true.

The relationship between TA & FA is kind of simple if you realize that technicals are always backward looking & fundamentals are forward looking.

Many years ago an elderly lady ran into the side of my car because she was worried about a car that was riding up on her from behind.

Obviously, it's kind of handy to look at both the rear view mirror & in front of you when you're driving, or trading, for that matter.

Best wishes to all!

Trade well.
  • #17
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  • Mar 28, 2015 2:04am Mar 28, 2015 2:04am
Fundamental Analysis shows me the direction - Technical Analysis the best spot to enter
  • #18
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  • Mar 28, 2015 9:53am Mar 28, 2015 9:53am
Quoting traderathome
It does not matter what she says or does. Not for traders. We trade the charts. Things that happen, happen. And charts change. And trading opportunities arise.

Traders never need to worry about knowing what will happen. For one thing, we can't know what will happen. For another thing, whatever happens is not a mandate on the market makers. The market makers are the key. And they will get around to doing any "translating" of events to charts. And they will do this in whatever manner they decide to do this. Which is not necessarily...
You should stop posting you BS here, because you have no clue what you are talking about. Don't forget that you are influencing people, especially beginners who come here for advice and guidance. Unfortunately they read this nonsense from a person with a red box next to his name and take it as a fact ....

You obviously have no idea about the structure of the FX market and who are the main players in there, otherwise you wouldn't have said all that crap about the market makers
  • #19
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  • Mar 28, 2015 5:00pm Mar 28, 2015 5:00pm
Really? Can't see that much wrong with his post tbh. It's not your brokers who rig the game, other than bad fills, widening spreads, slippage etc., the 'rigging' takes place much higher up the food chain.


Quoting katrooo
You should stop posting you BS here, because you have no clue what you are talking about. Don't forget that you are influencing people, especially beginners who come here for advice and guidance. Unfortunately they read this nonsense from a person with a red box next to his name and take it as a fact ....

You obviously have no idea about the structure of the FX market and who are the main players in there, otherwise you wouldn't have said all that crap about the market makers
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #20
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  • Mar 29, 2015 5:21pm Mar 29, 2015 5:21pm
Quoting Spreadbetter
Really? Can't see that much wrong with his post tbh. It's not your brokers who rig the game, other than bad fills, widening spreads, slippage etc., the 'rigging' takes place much higher up the food chain.
Lol So, true, unless your broker is also a market maker (Oanda ;^)

Why wasn't Oanda hurt by the Swiss removing the EUR peg? How could they forgive any one whose account went negative?

Because they offset their own trades & could simply write it off & get the PR from looking like the safe place to trade. ;^)

& it is safer, but you are trading against your broker.....hummmm?!@$

FXCM was giving a lot of small accounts in Asia way too much leverage, & using other market makers (currenex, EBS, Integral, etc.) So, when the overleveraged accounts went negative, they owed their market makers the negative balance! Ouch! That's got to hurt! ;^)
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #21
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  • Apr 3, 2015 7:21pm Apr 3, 2015 7:21pm
Quoting Spreadbetter
Really? Can't see that much wrong with his post tbh. It's not your brokers who rig the game, other than bad fills, widening spreads, slippage etc., the 'rigging' takes place much higher up the food chain.
What world do you live in? What is wrong with bad fills, widening spreads and slippage? You probably don't know how it works on the other side, especially if you trade real size. Most market makers these days are very average, no real risk takers, - those days are gone, just agency trading most of the time. Liquidity on the interbank is horrific as none of these guys want to carry any sort of risk on their books + they don't have the capital to do so with the current regulation and banks' willigness to run directional risk is low to none. This is why the post above by traderathome is such a BS, like a proper conspiracy theory - these market makers in banks just can't move the market anymore, and especially now after reuters 4pm fixing scandal you can't even use your external chats properly so any co-operation with traders in other banks is impossible. Even several years back, this manipulation mostly happened at 4pm fix and was usually creating relatively small moves, don't forget that speculative risk takers are still a very very small portion of daily global FX turnover. But yes, banks sometimes try to rip you off on you stop loss (always filled) or limit orders (nothing filled) but in general they treat you relatively fair especially if you are a good customer and they are competing for flow business with all the other banks on the street.

And coming back to retail brokers ... I mean, 95% of these guys are just taking liquidity from the banks and providing it to you. So if the liquidity on the interbank is really bad (which it mostly is for the reasons I explained above) you will automatically get wider b/o spreads, slippage etc. and your broker has no fault in it.
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