It's easier and more profitable to bet on the ponies.
Hidden Message of the Fed's Dot Plot
Of all the maddening things about this month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, perhaps the single most annoying is the hoopla surrounding the so-called dot plot. It even has its own Twitter hashtag: #Dotplot. The dot plot is a chart that shows the expectations of each FOMC member -- absent their names -- for where they believe the central bank's overnight lending rate will be in the future. Here's a recent example: That there were four members of the FOMC who thought at the end of 2014 that Fed rates would be at 2 percent by 2015 is, well, kind of adorable. Deeply misguided, totally wrong, but still cute in ... (full story)