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    From abs.gov.au

    Employment increased to 11,666,000. Unemployment increased to 782,300. Unemployment rate remained steady at 6.3% from a revised December 2014 estimate. Participation rate remained steady at 64.7%. Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 0.7 million hours to 1,604.4 million hours. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment decreased 12,200 to 11,668,700. Full-time employment decreased 28,100 to 8,078,000 and part-time employment increased 15,900 to 3,590,700. Unemployment increased 34,500 to 795,200. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 200 to 551,800 and the number of ... (full story)

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Doink . . .
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So, how's Tony "Ears flapping in the Wind" Abbott going to explain this?
Short again ....
Tommy Sutanto
Shootingstar77 All Time Pips: -41
60 pip drop in Aud/Jpy just seconds before the report was released.....damn inside traders DBs
That's a bit of a surprise. I thought they might have set the bar low...guess it wasn't low enough.
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Resource economies are boom and bust, boom and bust, boom and . . . you guessed it . . . bust.
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60 pips was not bad for someone just start
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200 pip move on gbpaud
Quoting Pip-Ranger
60 pip drop in Aud/Jpy just seconds before the report was released.....damn inside traders DBs
I was watching the news and that didin't happened on my plaftorm and I banked 50 pips according to my strategie : )
I really believed it got leaked, i posted that yesterday and I see I was right, yes the right people knew, yes this unregulated market can be scarey, but one can protect oneself by just have ones eyes open and look for strange behavior in price....
The GBP/AUD moved 164 pips and 110 pips profit for someone back in trade wasn't too bad either !
Liberty,

I agree definitely was leaked despite what some may think, or they just happen to get really luck, either way definitely very strange. All you can do is protect yourself and keep an eye out like you said.
TP 7570, 7370
don't find the correct answer in market. just feel it and follow the wave.
Target 0.7623, if it breaks next will be 0.7481
Quoting Ndambakuwa
The GBP/AUD moved 164 pips and 110 pips profit for someone back in trade wasn't too bad either !
True and in the past I had huge slippages from my "lovely Alpari UK"broker trading EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD, that's why I didn't even touch these pairs because I'm testing another broker, I traded only AUD/USD and AUD/JPY and it gave only 3 pips slippage on my real account, fair enough.

These news were straight forward, difficult to trade right after the news, unless the market gives a pull back for a re-enter.
Next level at 72c, then 68c, then 62c and then the abyss. No positive news on the horizon, no political stability and leadership in Australia, no positive global growth for Aussie trading partners and little to no local manufacturing. What has happened to the lucky country?
Quoting fxchallenger
Target 0.7630, if it breaks next will be 0.7481
I see what you mean, there is a lot of support at around 0.7480-50 zone on the monthly TF from 2006-2003 period, I also have a monthly FIB extension @ 0.7606 that looks pretty good to be reached soon, also RBA said they want AUD/USD to reach 0.75 area, until there, there is still some room to trade. Happy pips everyone!!
A bad number indeed. Current news in various parts of the world and low oil price don't help. But, on the bright side it is just one number. Considering a good number on the previous month, I will hold my breadth for now. It is the beginning of the year, so much more to watch.
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Quoting Guest
Resource economies are boom and bust, boom and bust, boom and . . . you guessed it . . . bust.
You have no idea what you are talking about.
Well, looks like the bias is to the downside again. The Daily pinbar from last week and inverted H&S pattern on the 4hr chart have been invalidated.

However, it's been an hour now since the intial knee-jerk reaction gap down and price still hasn't been able to close below .7650(not saying it won't...but there's currently no follow through). Perhaps it's just since Asian sessions are usually slow versus London and US session. It will be interesting to watch if we get a double bottom off near last weeks lows of .7624 or if we can get an actual close below .7600 level. I can tell you I won't be selling the lows...just watching.

Congrats to those who made pips selling, nice work!
nice break low support next target 0.75
Quoting 05renegade
Next level at 72c, then 68c, then 62c and then the abyss. No positive news on the horizon, no political stability and leadership in Australia, no positive global growth for Aussie trading partners and little to no local manufacturing. What has happened to the lucky country?
What are you talking about? The petty public servants in the RBA say they want it down to help manufacturing.

Personally I want it up to stop foreigners buying our property and farmland as well as to make overseas products and holidays cheaper for me. Yes, it's mostly, but not all, about me, me, me!

I hold the government responsible and ask for them to resign immediately. Even the US has commented on our incompetent leadership.

US think tank asks 'Is Tony Abbott (AU PM) the most incompetent leader of any industrialised democracy?'
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-think-tank-asks-is-tony-abbott-the-most-incompetent-leader-of-any-industrialised-democracy-20150211-13cda6.html
It IS all about devaluation.....Worldwide......
Quoting mbahbejo
nice break low support next target 0.75
While I won't say it's out of the question...we'll need to clear last weeks low along with .7600 first. Not to mention it's been two hours and price hasn't been able to stay below .7650 yet.
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RBA does not have it easy at all, after this employment report.
For the most FED-like entities low inflation and full employment are the two most important joint goals.
It is up to anyone's interpretation which of the two is really more important to those entities.

For example, as Macdon mentioned above the rate cuts (and one is behind us already) will heat up the already hot housing in major cities and farmlan, and as he pointed out, not Australians but foreigners will be the benefactors of the low AUD and then rising prices that would skyrocket ....
Inflation is not under control at all and could get out of hand with more cuts, if not with even the one RBA (IMHO prematurely) recently made.

And then you have the unemployment rate that ticked 0.2 up, matching the rate from six months ago from Aug 2014, and the ever volatile employment change missing badly my 8k, and yet revising the previous month up by 5k....

Most of us here have short or shorter term trading goals.
So it does not really help us much, if at all, even if project that by the end of this year AUD would be much higher against most of the majors due to the imminent asset bubble that will spur inflation, containable only with reversal of any rate cuts made or to be made soon...

As for now, it is of the utmost importance for the downtrend continuation to see where will AUD be in 12 hours in regard to the current levels. So far, as couple of you have already mentioned above, the follow through is not there, yet.

I am also watching NZDUSD which booked some sizable sympathetic losses after the AUD employment report.
RBZ unlike RBA played their rate cut/boost much better on their last meeting.

Good luck to all, and let the dust settle first and foremost!
Quoting liberty458
It IS all about devaluation.....Worldwide......
Yes, but if we are devaluing, what is valuing? It seems it's the USD and maybe XAU, but I haven't paid attention to gold or silver lately.

I think our AUD is being talked down and made to go down deliberately for some probably nefarious end. Like some foreign interest wants to make a killing buying cheap property/farmland.
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RBA wants the AUD is around 60-65 cent so this year hopefully will see AUDUSD 0.6x, probably further rate cut then follow by stimulus
At this rate, we don't need another rate cut!! It seems the bad news keeps coming out from Australia(and China). And if the USD keeps moving up, it will pressure a/u to go down. WE DO NOT need another rate cut as it will create a housing bubble that will be detrimental to the economy.
Yes that may have some merit..... the way I see it is....if The AUD stays high and the rest of the world keeps on Printing and devaluing their Currency, AUD has no choice but to follow, since they do rely on Exports it will hurt their exporters, but you say what about there imports, Yes that matters, but look at the price per barrel of Oil, hmmmm,......then if the interest rate stays high Investors buy the AUD for the swap, so the AUD will stay High, so they lower that too, but in the mean time they create a HUGE Housing bubble by doing that, so now what?....... as it seems every Country or most Countries are relying on Exports and the lower the exchange rate is, artificially or not, in their minds their Country will prosper....But has it "NO"....
I say a lower exchange rate if brought on by printing money or by doing anything artificially is absolutely the wrong way to go....And will we ever know the real reasons why and the How Come's for this going on, not sure about that answer....And what is Value....well to me the biggest Value a Country can have is There People.....
People spend if they have something to spend. And they get what they need and want. FX is something hard to control. What each country can do is their policy.
Hey, look at that...still above .7650! Hehe
Good points.

I just like to emphasize that there is no two goals for any central bank, it is and will forever be inflation that determines the interest rate change. After all, it is the INTEREST IN MONEY. If the interest in money increases (demand) then you have to raise prices (interest rate)...whether or not co factors will confirm or not is irrelevalt in reality. Look at the FED, talks about dual mandate, talked about interest rate rise when 6.5% unemployment. Pure BS.

Sure, atm, you have very good U.S. employment numbers but without a clear increase in the core inflation rate you'll have that rate increase a one off event. Right now, core inflation is in a downtrend in the U.S.

Talking about rate expectations then currently we have about 30 bps cuts being priced in for AUD and about 35bps hikes in for USD within 12 months. It's up to you whether you believe those (currently) overextensions.

Copper is at 2008 lows, China is seeing need for stimulus through reserve req. cuts that can only benefit the AUD.

Key is FOMC statement, especially how they NOW see the economic outlook given recent events. Data has been dissapointing in the U.S. too but the employment is doing very good.

All in all, i see AUD 0.79+ (up to January's range high of 0.82-0.83) in the coming two months. Let's see












Quoting Guest
RBA does not have it easy at all, after this employment report.
For the most FED-like entities low inflation and full employment are the two most important joint goals.
It is up to anyone's interpretation which of the two is really more important to those entities.

For example, as Macdon mentioned above the rate cuts (and one is behind us already) will heat up the already hot housing in major cities and farmlan, and as he pointed out, not Australians but foreigners will be the benefactors of the low AUD and then rising prices that would skyrocket...
Quoting lumesh
Good points.

...

All in all, i see AUD 0.79+ (up to January's range high of 0.82-0.83) in the coming two months. Let's see

I actually agree with this comment, just for different reasons. With current price action, it's very hard for me to see the downtrend continuing.

Lets recap: 1) Last week RBA cut interest rates and price rallied over 200pips from the intitial knee-jerk reaction selloff. Then price spent the rest of the week unable to even stay below .7750(over 100pips above last weeks lows). 2) We had good US NFP data, and while price initially sold off...again, price couldn't stay below .7750(no follow through on selling). And now 3) we had Worse than expected Aussie employment data and price has rallied over 50pips from the intial knee-jerk selloff. Over 10hrs now and price couldn't stay below .7650...let alone take out last weeks lows.


So with that being said...If price doesn't close below .7650 today and doesn't take out last weeks lows and close below .7600 this week...this Price Action on the daily chart look like a Double Bottom and my intial target would be around .8000. We've had 3 major news events in the past week and yet the Aussie(all Aussie "negative" supposedly) has closed within 150pip range on the day chart for the entire month of February. I don't see any trend continuation unless we can close below the levels above I mentioned. Right now I'm being very cautious with my trades as things work themselves out.

Trade Smart!
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You have it the wrong way round. Foreign investors want to buy property in countries where the currency is appreciating, ie tomorrow their investment will be worth more than today. If a currency is depreciating an investment may seem cheaper than yesterday however why would you buy something that is going to be worth less tomorrow. Foreign investment in Aus is over for the time being from a foreign prospective. Why buy a property is Aus that would be worth less tomorrow when you can buy in US or eventually UK where currency appreciation will work in your favour.

Quoting Macdon
What are you talking about? The petty public servants in the RBA say they want it down to help manufacturing.

Personally I want it up to stop foreigners buying our property and farmland as well as to make overseas products and holidays cheaper for me. Yes, it's mostly, but not all, about me, me, me!

I hold the government responsible and ask for them to resign immediately. Even the US has commented on our incompetent leadership.

US think tank asks 'Is Tony Abbott (AU PM) the most incompetent leader of any industrialised democracy?'
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-pol...11-13cda6.html...
Quoting Macdon
What are you talking about? The petty public servants in the RBA say they want it down to help manufacturing.

Personally I want it up to stop foreigners buying our property and farmland as well as to make overseas products and holidays cheaper for me. Yes, it's mostly, but not all, about me, me, me!

I hold the government responsible and ask for them to resign immediately. Even the US has commented on our incompetent leadership.

US think tank asks 'Is Tony Abbott (AU PM) the most incompetent leader of any industrialised democracy?'
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-pol...11-13cda6.html...
What is wrong with you?? Why you want to stop foreigners buying our property and farmland? They are the one who work hard and produce something for the country. Do you want cheap holiday? Why not spend time visiting your own country? There is no much to see but there are great places to visit and help the local economy.
I agree 100% with you: The Liberal party should be put out of the govern. These guys know shit about anything. The PM is a weak and arrogant pseudo "leader", The Financial guy doesn't have a clue about economy and all the other are just a bunch of push-overs with no say at all.
So no one can blame international news making fun about our politicians.
By the way the AUD will keep falling during the year until test the 062 level. Just get a comfortable chair while seeing the money falls in the trader account.
Quoting mmforexinfo
What is wrong with you?? Why you want to stop foreigners buying our property and farmland? They are the one who work hard and produce something for the country.
actually they don't .....they buy the farm's cheap & use that as a back door for immigration the govt is closing that loophole.....there is quite a stink about non-producing farms bought by foreign investors, with unusually large work forces, bought in from outside oz.....

get your facts straight....!
Your reasons are all technical, that's fine with me (Y).

Always good to get different perspectives.

Quoting PA is King
I actually agree with this comment, just for different reasons. With current price action, it's very hard for me to see the downtrend continuing.

Lets recap: 1) Last week RBA cut interest rates and price rallied over 200pips from the intitial knee-jerk reaction selloff. Then price spent the rest of the week unable to even stay below .7750(over 100pips above last weeks lows). 2) We had good US NFP data, and while price initially sold off...again, price couldn't stay below .7750(no follow through on selling). And now 3) we had Worse than expected...
Quoting zax1150
actually they don't .....they buy the farm's cheap & use that as a back door for immigration the govt is closing that loophole.....there is quite a stink about non-producing farms bought by foreign investors, with unusually large work forces, bought in from outside oz.....

get your facts straight....!
Blimey, I have never heard of that issue. Would have thought I would have seen one report in the news over the last couple of years if it was that much of an issue. Even if thats true, foreign investment is hugely positive for the economy. People moan about foreign people buying properties, businesses pushing up the prices. However for every purchase they buy multiple ancillary products such a fridges, washing machines, paint and services etc guess where from? Not overseas, but local businesses. Thus creating jobs blah, blah blah. Now with a depreciating currency, there is a negative total return for foreign investors and that's not great news for aus.
Safety First
Quoting lumesh
Your reasons are all technical, that's fine with me (Y).

Always good to get different perspectives.

You nailed it! I'm a technical trader.
Quoting PA is King
You nailed it! I'm a technical trader.
And one who posts useful insights, nice one PA cheers.
not really, in an economic perspective.

If a country's currency is depriciating then the assets of this country become more appealing for other, higher currency countries. That's common logic, that is why we have this currency war in the first place - to weaken our currency for the benefit of higher exports THUS potentially higher growth in the future (in those countries)

With property it's the same way. You export your property in exchange for foreign money. The cheaper the products get the more investors it ultimately attracts (all other things being equal). A law of supply and demand. You don't get higher demand with rising prices (in a sustainable fashion).

Anyway, it all comes down to investors perspective and time horizon.

but the underlyings for his purchase arguments are the following:

1) aussie has come down 30%+, so you get way more today than you did couple of years ago
2) Global economy has engaged in exeptional easing that has the potential for higher growth and inflation
3) weaker currency has the potential for spurring this higher growth even further

So, that are your first arguments.

I do understand your point of view though. You just expect the trend to continue, a trend trader (buyer). It would be fine in the short term but any property investments rarely fit into that category.











Quoting Guest
You have it the wrong way round. Foreign investors want to buy property in countries where the currency is appreciating, ie tomorrow their investment will be worth more than today. If a currency is depreciating an investment may seem cheaper than yesterday however why would you buy something that is going to be worth less tomorrow. Foreign investment in Aus is over for the time being from a foreign prospective. Why buy a property is Aus that would be worth less tomorrow when you can buy in US or eventually UK where currency appreciation will...
Quoting em01joc
Blimey, I have never heard of that issue. Would have thought I would have seen one report in the news over the last couple of years if it was that much of an issue. Even if thats true, foreign investment is hugely positive for the economy. People moan about foreign people buying properties, businesses pushing up the prices. However for every purchase they buy multiple ancillary products such a fridges, washing machines, paint and services etc guess where from? Not overseas, but local businesses. Thus creating jobs blah, blah blah. Now with...
Mainly as it's a country issue so as per usual gets swept under the rug,
as when we petition the govt, we get ignored, once in a while you might see it on 4 corners.....that's about it....you think the govt wants to admit the immigration loophole you can drive a road train through, we've seen quite a few productive farms bought then watched them produce nothing after that, so no influx of investment just people....funnily enough when they get caught they immediately claim refugee status & the govt housing that goes with it ....oH & to add insult to injury they are granted a $100k 2% flat rate govt loan .....TELL ME how the hell is that investing into the country?

& if you haven't seen it, should that mean the problem doesn't exist?
Quoting buster48
And one who posts useful insights, nice one PA cheers.

Thanks buster, hope you're doing well and making pips!
So what have we learned so far today on Aussie? Well, look back at last week's RBA interest rate cuts and see how price rallied over 200pips from the low of .7624? Now look at how price has rallied 60pips from today's lows after Bad Aussie employment data! In both cases, you had an intial selloff off followed by rallies...aka no follow through on selling. What does that mean? Lots of buyers keeping Aussie above .7600!!! just fyi!

just wanted to add in here, that's why I've been cautious lately about selling and/or buying. Still waiting to see if price can get below last weeks lows and/or close below .7600 on the daily chart. Trade Smart!
Quoting PA is King
So what have we learned so far today on Aussie? Well, look back at last week's RBA interest rate cuts and see how price rallied over 200pips from the low of .7624? Now look at how price has rallied 60pips from today's lows after Bad Aussie employment data! In both cases, you had an intial selloff off followed by rallies...aka no follow through on selling. What does that mean? Lots of buyers keeping Aussie above .7600!!! just fyi!

just wanted to add in here, that's why I've been cautious lately about selling and/or buying. Still waiting...
Hi PA, yes indeed, rate cut + very bad employment stat implies diffenitely a bearish bias for medium to long term as well!
I have a feeling that AU will be ranging again, and the safest way to play this is selling rallies (more downside "gravity" that going higher till the major bearish trend resumes back.
Typo: Sorry I meant "more downside "gravity" rather than going higher ..."
If you want a long term trade, buy around .7700(closer to .7650 would be better...not sure if it will even get down that far again) with a stoploss under .7600 and target of .8000.

If price closes above .7700 today, then that's TWO BULLISH daily pinbars..BOTH on BAD NEWS DATA days for Aussie! People buying Aussie on bad news??? I'm sure you guys and put it all together.

Cheers!
And price just made a new high for the day! Now 80pips up from the lows of the day. Where have all the sellers gone??? Marker Makers have lots of traders trapped short now.
Looks like we are heading up to .7750 again. Just punched through the 1hr 50ema...200ema is around .7780 which is close to the .7750 level!
HAHAHAHA...just hit .7743!!! What did I tell you guys??? PRICE ACTION DOESN'T LIE!!!
Bingo, .7751!!!! Nailed it! Over a 100pip rally on BAD Aussie employment data...Price Action is Screaming at you!
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PA ,

What is your target for AUD on this move?
It already hit it... .7750. But as I posted above. the 1hr 200ema was at .7780 area(price hit .7777) for today's high so far. Normal ADR on A/U is around 100pips...we are already at 135pips. Price is free to do what it wants now.

I just hope we get a pullback tonight or tomorrow in order to buy again. But it's pretty clear the London and US traders have done nothing but buy Aussie for the past 12 hours!
Quoting PA is King
It already hit it... .7750. But as I posted above. the 1hr 200ema was at .7780 area(price hit .7777) for today's high so far. Normal ADR on A/U is around 100pips...we are already at 135pips. Price is free to do what it wants now.

I just hope we get a pullback tonight or tomorrow in order to buy again. But it's pretty clear the London and US traders have done nothing but buy Aussie for the past 12 hours!
brearish pattern is on going as we speak now, gravity to the downside is way way stronger than any spike and/or rally!!!!
Sell rallies is going to be the wise bet again...you do know that better! aren't you PA?
Quoting midosh
brearish pattern is on going as we speak now, gravity to the downside is way way stronger than any spike and/or rally!!!!
Sell rallies is going to be the wise bet again...you do know that better! aren't you PA?

Well, I would say the spike up to the 1hr 200ema, along with an 135pip rally today(even though normal ADR is 100pips)...a pullback is in order. So yes, you could have sold that rally.

But I'm looking at a bigger picture of things right now...I'm looking for AU to close above .7700 and forming yet another Daily Bullish Pinbar after Bad Aussie news(Rate cut last week and Jobs report last night).

I won't be selling rallies anymore, I'm going with Buying The Dips because the downtrend is coming to an end imho. Only a Daily close below .7600 can change that now.

Happy Trading!
Quoting dicol10
thank's PA .. you are my inspiration for pips

Glad to help. I hope lots of people are making pips!
Quoting Fx 35
True and in the past I had huge slippages from my "lovely Alpari UK"broker trading EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD, that's why I didn't even touch these pairs because I'm testing another broker, I traded only AUD/USD and AUD/JPY and it gave only 3 pips slippage on my real account, fair enough.

These news were straight forward, difficult to trade right after the news, unless the market gives a pull back for a re-enter.
I've learnt to reduce trading volumes & tame my greed !
Quoting zax1150
actually they don't .....they buy the farm's cheap & use that as a back door for immigration the govt is closing that loophole.....there is quite a stink about non-producing farms bought by foreign investors, with unusually large work forces, bought in from outside oz.....

get your facts straight....!
C'mon... maybe this is a minority and this govt is not closing anything just hiding what is happening. I know there are many aussies working hard but they are not enough to make this country get back to its track. The majority rather being mocking around collecting the benefits generated by the others. Keep in mind without foreign investor we probably would be leaving in the same as 30 or more years ago.
Quoting mmforexinfo
C'mon... maybe this is a minority and this govt is not closing anything just hiding what is happening. I know there are many aussies working hard but they are not enough to make this country get back to its track. The majority rather being mocking around collecting the benefits generated by the others. Keep in mind without foreign investor we probably would be leaving in the same as 30 or more years ago.
Never even been into the bush have you?
not a minority problem

get a clue, go out & see for yourself ......as for foreign investment check out the UK, see how little is owned by the brits & how much they have to pay to use what should be their own services
£billions are leeched out each year by Foreign investors tell me how that "helps"?
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