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  • AUDUSD Crumbling Like the Roman Empire - More Losses Possible if .7700 Gives Way

    From forex.com

    My colleague Chris Tedder discussed the fundamental drivers for the big drop in AUDUSD during today’s Asian session, but the pair is moving so fast that it’s worth updating some of the key technical levels to watch. After a strangely delayed reaction to yesterday morning’s dovish article by RBA watcher Terry McCrann, the Australian dollar is falling in earnest heading into today’s US session. Like the Roman Empire, there have been cracks in the Australian dollar’s edifice for years (prominently including an overreliance on the mining industry and China, as well as a potential property bubble) and now ... (full story)

Risk off. No more, no less.

Wall Street turned the vacuum cleaner on.
Quoting TheTopBloke
Risk off. No more, no less.

Wall Street turned the vacuum cleaner on.
it looks like Stevens was right with his 0.7500 target..

Sometime you can trust a central banker!
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
I feel silly now for closing my short 100pips ago!
At this rate a/u will be UNDER .70 by the end of the year if US has 2 interest rate increases as being mooted. and that's without Stevens giving the aussies an interest rate cut. If we do get an interest rate cut next Tuesday(and it is on the cards) we will see a/u drop 200 pts in the following 2-3 days.
More aussie data later tonight...weekly support at .77 was hit. Could be due for a pullback. We shall see
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
Quoting PA is King
I feel silly now for closing my short 100pips ago!
It's just fine mate! let's sell the next rally. I did make today for both AUDUSD and AUDJPY total of 385 pips by just selling yesterday rally when 1H bar lost momentum to break the higher lows!
Many pips to you PA!
Quoting midosh
It's just fine mate! let's sell the next rally. I did make today for both AUDUSD and AUDJPY total of 385 pips by just selling yesterday rally when 1H bar lost momentum to break the higher lows!
Many pips to you PA!
That's fantastic man! Great job!!!!
Quoting dghent
At this rate a/u will be UNDER .70 by the end of the year if US has 2 interest rate increases as being mooted. and that's without Stevens giving the aussies an interest rate cut. If we do get an interest rate cut next Tuesday(and it is on the cards) we will see a/u drop 200 pts in the following 2-3 days.
Long term target is 0.6000 so keep seeling into the rallies. Still short from 0.8005 having taken profit 1 at the 200 month ma @ 0.7765. Look out below now as there is nothing except the 100% fib extension at 0.7655 before 0.7500 which is my final target and I'll square up and where I would expect a reaction and probably a great place to trade the retracement.
sell AUD on peaks.
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We are due for retracement as $US has gained too fast than fundamentals currently suggest.
I would love to see a rally on a/u but atm it's struggling to get up to .7800.
Quoting Lacunoide
it looks like Stevens was right with his 0.7500 target..

Sometime you can trust a central banker!
You do not need to trust them always
Quoting dghent
At this rate a/u will be UNDER .70 by the end of the year if US has 2 interest rate increases as being mooted. and that's without Stevens giving the aussies an interest rate cut. If we do get an interest rate cut next Tuesday(and it is on the cards) we will see a/u drop 200 pts in the following 2-3 days.
I cannot agree with that.

In my view, first of all, U.S. 2 rate hikes are definitely not on the cards this year if we look at the expectations indicators. In fact, 12 month forecast for the U.S. rates peaked late december and since then it is hoovering around 0.25bp aka a single rate hike which is widely expected and priced in if you looked at the move in usdx last month.

Secondly, somehow noone is noticing that the AUD yields are already pricing in TWO rate cuts within 12 months! And that in an environment where Stevens clearly said last month that there will be a period of rate stability for the foreseeable future. they see it as an accomodative policy (not that it matters but still) Couple that with the fact that AUD data has actually been improving within the last month with unemployment declining.

So, in simple terms, you need AT LEAST one rate cut next week to even think about aud yields and audusd being fairly valued. Audusd has been running on fumes lately mainly due to commodity (copper) prices sell off and general negative sentiment across the board. January is seasonally a good month for the dollar too.

I am very interested to see the outcome of next week's RBA meeting. I don't see any reason (other than commodity prices) to lower rates next week.
Quoting dghent
I would love to see a rally on a/u but atm it's struggling to get up to .7800.
Please tell me you guys sold Aussie around .7780 area last night! That area was like a brick wall...price could not break through for hours to reach .7800!!! Good pips were made if you sold.
Winner Winner chicken dinner! Just closed my short for 50pips! Made just over 300pips this week on shorting the Aussie gravy train!

I hope most of you did the same. Trading WITH the trend will always give you higher probability trades!!!

Have a great weekend everyone!
Dang, this is too easy!!! Sold at .7785 again and just made another 40pips from the Aussie Cash Cow!!!!!!
Quoting PA is King
Dang, this is too easy!!! Sold at .7785 again and just made another 40pips from the Aussie Cash Cow!!!!!!
Hi Pa,
I did open at the same price for AU and AJ at 91.670. 50 + 70 pips cashed in mate!
Happy weekend indeed for all of us!
Awesome job man! Enjoy your weekend!
Quoting PA is King
Awesome job man! Enjoy your weekend!
I did just opened a new short at 0.77920 and I'm going to let it open with SL trail
already set at 10 pip profit! extra weekends pips!
Have a nice weekend Pa! :Wink:
Quoting midosh
I did just opened a new short at 0.77920 and I'm going to let it open with SL trail
already set at 10 pip profit! extra weekends pips!
Have a nice weekend Pa! :Wink:
Makes sense. Unless the .7800 gives way, shorting just under that should be profitable.
Yeah, absolutely Pa!

30 pips and counting...
Quoting PA is King
Makes sense. Unless the .7800 gives way, shorting just under that should be profitable.
.77450 --> fib 61.8 % --> Switch
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  • Posted: Jan 29, 2015 12:34pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Technical Analysis
    Comments: 22  /  Views: 6,527