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  • Oil above $100? Never again, says Saudi Prince Alwaleed

    From marketwatch.com

    A well-known Saudi prince is making a big call on oil, saying that the $100-a-barrel threshold will never be topped again. “If supply stays where it is, and demand remains weak, you better believe [the price of oil] is gonna go down more. But if some supply is taken off the market, and there’s some growth in demand, prices may go up. But I’m sure we’re never going to see $100 anymore,” said Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the billionaire Saudi businessman, in an interview with Maria Bartiromo of Fox Business News published in USA Today. “I said a year ago [that] the price of oil above $100 is artificial,” ... (full story)

Big call, but I think he might be right
say that again!!
what does he know anyways??

this is just a temporary decline only... then a boom comes after to ride high prices trend...

if prices keep falling, U.S Shale Co won't be able to last long as they keep borrowing big money from US banks to pay their workers since it cost them around 45~55 USD dollar to produce 1 barrel of oil... The big debt will definitely break down their economy sooner or later. Thus a USD dollar collapse again and this time could be worse than anytime.

waiting to ride a very big trend next few years... expecting to see big numbers... my target after all is 400$
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what does Saudi prince know? just because he is a prince doesn't mean he can tell the future. Only one who will say is the FED.
IMO, he is half right.. Crude should stay below 90-115 range for another few years at least.

The range 25 - 50 looks good for long term investing.
at present 44 , whats going on ...................???
Quoting fxmusa
at present 44 , whats going on ...................???
It appears to be falling.. looks like it'll continue for a while..
Quoting fxmusa
at present 44 , whats going on ...................???
OPEC especially Saudi Govt does not want to share its Market to US Oil Producing and exporting Companies and their policy is to push the US companies to Bank Ruptcy as they did back in 1986,, US is hurting but same time US is happy that Russian Economy getting Hurt as well as Iranian's IMHO
Quoting Dr.Zain
OPEC especially Saudi Govt does not want to share its Market to US Oil Producing and exporting Companies and their policy is to push the US companies to Bank Ruptcy as they did back in 1986,, US is hurting but same time US is happy that Russian Economy getting Hurt as well as Iranian's IMHO
Bingo!
Discouraging uncle sam from from shale gas production would not be a good idea, they've got Big E in their pockets...
Quoting FxMegaCB
say that again!!
what does he know anyways??

this is just a temporary decline only... then a boom comes after to ride high prices trend...

if prices keep falling, U.S Shale Co won't be able to last long as they keep borrowing big money from US banks to pay their workers since it cost them around 45~55 USD dollar to produce 1 barrel of oil... The big debt will definitely break down their economy sooner or later. Thus a USD dollar collapse again and this time could be worse than anytime.

waiting to ride a very big trend next few years......
good luck with that i Promise to you at least until 4 years you not see oil above 200$
Quoting ClockTrader
IMO, he is half right.. Crude should stay below 90-115 range for another few years at least.

The range 25 - 50 looks good for long term investing.
Agree Clocktrader. Supply is artificially restricted and a boom of $150 plus will not be seen in the next 24 months.
Never say "never"
IMO This is the calm before the storm, its inevitable the price will breach the $100 handle as we need to use more oil. If anything this is all politically hampered. Since we have to use oil for pretty much everything in this age we live in then demand will naturally increase and along with that, the price. Sorry Al-Waleed, renewable won't be the main energy source for a while.
60$ is correct price of oil.
“If supply stays where it is, and demand remains weak..." does not really say anything so this is a non story. We still import 40% of our use and fracking has a breakeven point of $60 / barrel for some so of course it will go back up. Only question is how far and when.
IMO, countries like Saudi get all kinds of inputs & I'm sure they hedged their sales for several years above $100

Its the average fellas who get crushed not the biggies..


Quoting Dr.Zain
OPEC especially Saudi Govt does not want to share its Market to US Oil Producing and exporting Companies and their policy is to push the US companies to Bank Ruptcy as they did back in 1986,, US is hurting but same time US is happy that Russian Economy getting Hurt as well as Iranian's IMHO
Quoting Guest
what does Saudi prince know? just because he is a prince doesn't mean he can tell the future. Only one who will say is the FED.
With a comment like that I would want to be a guest as well. What the hell kind of say does the Fed have on Oil Policy handled by OPEC......
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:57am Jan 13, 2015 10:47am | Edited at 10:57am
Either way cars are all turning electric, in a few years there will be no more fuel based cars. Oil/gas prices will fall at 0.50 cause some people still use BBQs for a little hot dog or somethin... (e.g. with mustard). Either way, like I always said oil is a free resource... from time to time I basically dig out my own oil in my backyard while I'm walking the dog out. You people don't get it, like who's gonna buy some oil, why don't you just buy some rocks instead or like invest in sand.... why don't you just buy a few tons of sand instead??? What a bunch of clowns man. (I apologize for my mental problems) I didn't sleep for 2 days in a row because of tick chart monitoring.
Quoting Tony112
Either way cars are all turning electric, in a few years there will be no more fuel based cars. Oil prices will fall at 0.50 cause some people still use BBQs for a little hot dog or somethin... (e.g. with mustard)
Perhaps research the other things that Oils are used for! Also the cost of electric cars and their limits will not replace any more than the Hybrids have on the roads since their creation, certainly not anytime in the next decade.

Oil is here to stay until the demand and supply ratio is so out of balance and the costs far too high that a large scale paradigm shift occurs. The world economically is also not ready for the shift from fossil fuel to renewable energy on a grand scale.

If cars do eventually become all electric I can almost guarantee you that your costs of electricity will skyrocket. The cost and profits associated with Petrol and Diesel will just transfer to the new medium of the day.
Sounds like a joke.
No one ever considers the reduction, as opposed to expansion, of US military force since the early 2000's? Always talking about supply and demand and global production risk factors, and that is by far and away the greatest factor to date. Conventional mechanized military's use an outrageous amount of energy. What does it take to fly jets, drive tanks, humvees, move those things from place to place?
Quoting Razor_trader
Oil is here to stay until the demand and supply ratio is so out of balance and the costs far too high that a large scale paradigm shift occurs. The world economically is also not ready for the shift from fossil fuel to renewable energy on a grand scale.
The world is ready, the powers that be, and the technology necessary, are not.

Anything that reduces energy costs and reduces dependency on a long term is what is going to truly change everything.
I was just doing a break-even calculation on a couple of smaller oil exploration/production companies. Subject to the usual margin of error ( == I got it wrong maybe) the break-even cost is $32, and for the second company it depends upon how much their debt-servicing costs are ... so in the range $28 to $39.

Quoting Tony112
Either way cars are all turning electric, in a few years there will be no more fuel based cars. Oil/gas prices will fall at 0.50 cause some people.....
Yeah, I was thinking about that.....

Quoting Razor_trader
Perhaps research the other things that Oils are used for! Also the cost of electric cars and their limits will not replace any more than the Hybrids have on the roads since their creation, certainly not anytime in the next decade.....
Yeah I was thinking about that too....


Well get this; Toyota have just released a fistful of patents on using Hydrogen technology in automobiles ......for free!

They are committed to reducing pollution from vehicle use.

This is applicable to most land-based transportation. Which still leaves the air and marine transport situation, and the gas-powered electricity generation, which I guesstimate accounts for 2/3rds of world consumption.

...and of course there is currently no alternative to lubricants...
Exodus: Are your numbers for fracking or traditional drilling? Have seen $32 for traditional and $50 to 60 for fracking.

Also wasn't GM near ready to produce a hydrogen cell car before the ever so experienced and qualified government car tsar put it out to pasture? Think that has a better chance at market share than electric and likely cleaner overall too.
Quoting gat
Exodus: Are your numbers for fracking or traditional drilling? Have seen $32 for traditional and $50 to 60 for fracking.

Also wasn't GM near ready to produce a hydrogen cell car before the ever so experienced and qualified government car tsar put it out to pasture? Think that has a better chance at market share than electric and likely cleaner overall too.
Traditional drilling, and I am limited to London-listed. I looked in some company annual reports to check the sensitivity. I don't have the name of a fracking-only company. I expect there are some because there is a move to exploit this technology in the UK - where there are deposits that can be extracted using that method.

I heard some years ago that fracking is expensive, around the numbers you mention. I expected technology to get cheaper - as it always seems to.....

I also read that Saudi oil extraction costs might be as low as $5. On reflection I think that is just smoke.....
Does anybody know how many days of oil capacity could be stored in ships?
Quoting Exodus
Traditional drilling, and I am limited to London-listed. I looked in some company annual reports to check the sensitivity. I don't have the name of a fracking-only company. I expect there are some because there is a move to exploit this technology in the UK - where there are deposits that can be extracted using that method.

I heard some years ago that fracking is expensive, around the numbers you mention. I expected technology to get cheaper - as it always seems to.....

I also read that Saudi oil extraction costs might be as low as $5. On...
I have no open positions yet, but I'm still in the MONITORING mode. Once the price reach $15/br (true breakeven for SA), I will buy A LOT and hold for as long as it takes to $ 150 or more!

It is better then buying physical barrels dealing with logistics, storage... that may cost as twice as the current price!
Quoting midosh
I have no open positions yet, but I'm still in the MONITORING mode. Once the price reach $15/br (true breakeven for SA), I will buy A LOT and hold for as long as it takes to $ 150 or more!

It is better then buying physical barrels dealing with logistics, storage... that may cost as twice as the current price!
Thanks for that.

My other question about floating storage will determine how quickly price recovers once a few companies have gone bust.
Quoting Exodus
Thanks for that.

My other question about floating storage will determine how quickly price recovers once a few companies have gone bust.
You're welcome!
I also want to clarify something that is being widely circulating in the MS media.
This "flash" drop is done 100% artificially (regardless of causes i.e political).
Think about it for a moment, if you and I have cars, are we going to drive like crazy (unless we are cab drivers :-)), hence the demand increase twice for instance?
of course no! Demand is steady and well known and grows with growing population in a very predictable way! So either oil producing countries increase or lower the output, the consumption is WELL KNOWN AND STEADY folks! so according to this logic oil prices must fluctuate within no more than %10 in normal circumstances (excluding war times, geopolitical unrest, natural disasters (BP as example) ...
To sum up, since oil prices are purely "abstract" we should analyze and wait till the lowest breakeven production price is broken, then we long and only long and hold!
For oil Saudi control supply and demand
Why because Saudi supply 35% OPEC quota and its can raise down product instantly
I think in sort term oil price between $45 until $60
Since November 1973 OPEC has controlled oil (the largest industry in the world) and the world was promised alternative energy resources - that's 41 years ago.
Nothing has changed since, and it probably never will, not as long as oil spurts out of the earth effortlessly. It's too easy to produce and there is still a nearly an unlimited amount available, so good luck with Electric cars etc.

Electric cars don't need servicing regularly, and last a very long time, so where will Automakers profit from, they won't kill there own businesses. Dealerships can not survive from sales only, it is the addons, spares and workshops that make them viable.

The more things change the more they stay the same.
The ones here crying for Oil to rise up to 200$ or 400$ ( 400$ !!!! WHAT ???? are you joking? ) are forgetting one simple thing ... at that prices economy will freeze ( factories, cars, etc ... everything that moves on petrol will almost stop ) and price will drop BIG in a matter of days ...

We seen this happen when price as gone up to 147$ in the past ...

It's the economy stupid ...
And just one more thing ...

At 140$, more or less ... Soros said to the American Govt. ... Oil prices are too high and they will fall ...

If you all think that you outsmart George Soros ( one of the biggest and successful speculator of our times ) ...

Go on and play the 200$ price bet.

Good Luck
Quoting lcast
And just one more thing ...

At 140$, more or less ... Soros said to the American Govt. ... Oil prices are too high and they will fall ...

If you all think that you outsmart George Soros ( one of the biggest and successful speculator of our times ) ...

Go on and play the 200$ price bet.

Good Luck
....did Mr. Soros have an estimate of 'a reasonable price' for oil?
Quoting Exodus
....did Mr. Soros have an estimate of 'a reasonable price' for oil?
Well my friend, I think he has but in this business ( speculation ), someone like Soros does not share that kind of information.

Anyway I don't have his telephone number to get that info for you.

Sorry
Quoting lcast
Well my friend, I think he has but in this business ( speculation ), someone like Soros does not share that kind of information.

Anyway I don't have his telephone number to get that info for you.

Sorry
Ok, let me put it another way....
If he thought the price was too high at $140, did he indicate where it might not be too high? ....and I agree that $200 is pie in the sky, but that is what $140 looked like the year before...
Quoting Exodus
Ok, let me put it another way....
If he thought the price was too high at $140, did he indicate where it might not be too high? ....and I agree that $200 is pie in the sky, but that is what $140 looked like the year before...
In 2008 (Spot Oil 145$/147$ ), we where in the middle of a global financial and economic crisis, everything was going up and down like crazy ( Oil, Euro, USD, Gold, etc ), prices have gone too high and too low ...

For now (2015-2017), in my opinion the Operational Range is 40$-50$/100$. But I am only a Forex Trader ...

If today, I was placing a position on Oil, I'd go Long with low leverage, keep on Buying in the Range from 35$ to 50$ ... if it fall until 35$, ( I don't believe will go that far ).
Building a position in Jan/Feb, of various trades ( average price 40$/48$ ). then wait 6 Months, or 10/12 Months.

In 6 Months. 65$ will be the target
In 10/12 Months. 75$ will be the target

If targets are hit sooner close the position. If after 6 Months or 10/12 Months you targets are not hit close the position if you are on profit.

That's my sentiment
I don't know what is the sentiment of Mr. George Soros

Sorry
Now let’s turn to history:
1) From 1974 to 1985: $50-$120.
2) From 1986 to 2004: $20-$50.
3) From 2005 to 2014: $50-$120.

And this is to futures:
From 2015 to 2020: go back to period 2 or 1&3 (as above) ????
Quoting lcast
I don't know what is the sentiment of Mr. George Soros

Sorry
Thanks
Quoting etrade360
Now let’s turn to history:
1) From 1974 to 1985: $50-$120.
2) From 1986 to 2004: $20-$50.
3) From 2005 to 2014: $50-$120.

And this is to futures:
From 2015 to 2020: go back to period 2 or 1&3 (as above) ????
Hmmm ... very interesting , thanks.
Quoting etrade360
Now let’s turn to history:
1) From 1974 to 1985: $50-$120.
2) From 1986 to 2004: $20-$50.
3) From 2005 to 2014: $50-$120.

And this is to futures:
From 2015 to 2020: go back to period 2 or 1&3 (as above) ????
I thought it touched 140-50 at some point before 2008 crash..
One trade went off at the magic goal of $150 before backing right back off a few dollars.
Quoting ClockTrader
I thought it touched 140-50 at some point before 2008 crash..
yes it was one spike $140 before President Bush retired (may be he made his last trade), but resistant line around at 120. Check history and you can see it.
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Jan 12, 2015 4:12pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 44  /  Views: 8,457