Australia Labour Force

Australia Labour Force

From abs.gov.au

The seasonality of the labour force data has been re-estimated with specific adjustments made for the changed pattern of supplementary surveys. These adjustments have been applied to the seasonally adjusted series from December 2013 onwards. For further details see the Information note on pages 6-16. TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased to 11,589,000 from a revised September 2014 estimate. Unemployment increased to 768,700. Unemployment rate remained steady at 6.2% from a revised September 2014 estimate. Participation rate remained steady at 64.6%. Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 0.4 million ... (full story)

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Nov 5, 2014 4:32pm

Nothing impressive with that number, the downtrend should continue...just have to be patient and wait for price to stall/hit resistance area first. It's having a hard time even getting/staying above .8600. Happy Trading!

PA is King

Nov 5, 2014 4:52pm

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There are multiple resistance areas. I would have liked to seen .8660 area, but that's not going to happen. Price Action has been staying below .8600 most of the afternoon/night and just got rejected there again on that news spike.

PA is King

Nov 5, 2014 6:58pm — Edited

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Well lookie there, it hit .8600 and sold off 30pips right away. There's your initial resistance area and initial support still .8550!

Just a couple things to point out:
1) the longer price goes sideways, the greater the probability of a continuation down. I call it the Leg 1 Leg 2 pattern.

2) We had about a 200pip bearish daily candle and price has only been able to retrace 25% of that at most...that's not good...equals market is still bearish. I wouldn't be caught longing on this pair!!!

PA is King

Nov 6, 2014 3:41am

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Looks like a/u mounted a little bit of a comeback as I was sleeping. Finally able to pop above .8600 and settled into a .8600 to .8625 range now. It's had a pullback of 70pips from it's lows now. I'd still like to see .8650( +/- 10pips) for a possible short entry. We'll see if any of the news today can cause that spike or not. Trade carefully today and especially tomorrow!

PA is King

Nov 6, 2014 6:06am

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As expected and guilty by association(weakness on euro & pound...strength on USD)...the A/U drops 40pips!!! Highest probability of a winning trade is selling rallies on Aussie in the downtrend! Happy Trading!

PA is King

Nov 6, 2014 7:13am

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Quoting Guest

Disliked

my two favourite currencies aud nzd the trend is a real friend

Ignored

Good statement!

Regarding Aussie...I think I see what's happening. We've set a range of .8550 area for the bottom and top around .8620 ahead of NFP news tomorrow. Market Makers are accumulating positions for the time being. I don't know what will happen with NFP tomorrow...but I'm still bearish. Will be looking to sell the rallies if there are any. If price just drops then I miss out and wait for the next trade.

one other thing to note...look how easily Aussie sells off versus going up. The bearish candle's are a lot bigger and quicker than the bullish ones. There's also many more bearish candles than bullish ones. Another clue that the market is bearish this pair.

Example...it took 1 hr and 15minues for price to go up 40pips in the last hour and a half...but only 15minutes to selloff 40pips!

PA is King

Nov 6, 2014 11:18am

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Quoting frx_trader

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You don't make any sense. .86 is a pivot atm. Why don't you pick .84 or .88.

Ok, so if it closes at .86.001 then you would say AU is up. Come, you are better than this. .86 is a pivot atm. period.

Ignored

Not sure what you are talking about. Perhaps you are confused...but I am bearish on Aussie. I was merely pointing out price action and how it's unable to stay above .8600. Each rally is met with selling right back down. I wouldn't know about the pivot levels since I don't use them. Cheers!

PA is King

Nov 6, 2014 6:27pm

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Quoting frx_trader

Disliked

It's clear what I mean by pivot. The movement today is narrow around .8600 less than 100 pips.

Ignored

What you are confused about is the fact that I don't use pivots...therefore they are not on my chart and I don't know what levels they are at. Cheers!

frx_trader

Nov 6, 2014 9:31am

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Quoting PA is King

Disliked

Just like yesterday, Aussie not able to stay above .8600

Ignored

You don't make any sense. .86 is a pivot atm. Why don't you pick .84 or .88.

Ok, so if it closes at .86.001 then you would say AU is up. Come, you are better than this. .86 is a pivot atm. period.

frx_trader

Nov 6, 2014 11:47am

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Quoting PA is King

Disliked

Not sure what you are talking about. Perhaps you are confused...but I am bearish on Aussie. I was merely pointing out price action and how it's unable to stay above .8600. Each rally is met with selling right back down. I wouldn't know about the pivot levels since I don't use them. Cheers!

Ignored

It's clear what I mean by pivot. The movement today is narrow around .8600 less than 100 pips.

Tmr depending on RBA and NFP, it will either head down towards .84 or head up towards .88 in a daily big step movement. Again this is only my prediction. The action is tmr.

PA is King

Nov 5, 2014 5:43pm

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Looks like we are settling into a .8550 to .8600 range. Overall bias still short. Cheers!

PA is King

Nov 6, 2014 8:06am

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Just like yesterday, Aussie not able to stay above .8600

jegas

Nov 5, 2014 5:12pm

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Sell AUD @ any high,overall trend is bearish ,Even though the labour data also not lift the aussie,so be brave go for short ,today down tgt is tp1-8560 ,tp2-8530,tp3 -8450

Lamira

Nov 5, 2014 4:44pm

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Quoting imbonitore

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long to 0.8780

Ignored

why not to .945 ?????

dbutton1990

Nov 5, 2014 5:39pm

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I'm long aud/jpy and aud/usd till ecb decision tomorrow morning

Nov 5, 2014 4:40pm

long to 0.8780

Nov 5, 2014 5:04pm

AUD /USD will need to rally to .8715 before we start shorting. Maybe by NFP on friday

piphunt11

Nov 5, 2014 5:20pm

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nah jegas chasing it lower at this point is high risk IMO

Kok Teong

Nov 5, 2014 8:18pm

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Not only A/U, but U/J as well, what happened to USD?

Quoting vanray1989

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AUD /USD keep rise and Fall...

Ignored

clayjay

Nov 6, 2014 10:23pm

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It's been handy watching U/J whilst shorting E/ U , A/U .
Appreciate your wisdom PA and FRX .

StingrayEA

Nov 5, 2014 4:37pm

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What about Eur/Usd ?
Thanks for your advice, Happy Trading

fxmusa

Nov 5, 2014 11:31pm

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i agree pa , aud will down soon but correction then.

wabao

Nov 5, 2014 4:47pm

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Quoting PA is King

Disliked

Nothing impressive with that number, the downtrend should continue...just have to be patient and wait for price to stall/hit resistance area first. It's having a hard time even getting/staying above .8600. Happy Trading!

Ignored

Where is the resistance area now?

yunyoungro

Nov 5, 2014 5:44pm

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Quoting dbutton1990

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I'm long aud/jpy and aud/usd till ecb decision tomorrow morning

Ignored

good luck , me either

Nov 5, 2014 4:52pm

SeLL AUD /USD

Nov 5, 2014 8:12pm

AUD /USD keep rise and Fall...

Nov 5, 2014 4:45pm

let it go to .8645.

Nov 5, 2014 4:50pm

The next hour will go up more, take those pips

skyboys007

Nov 5, 2014 4:50pm

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Quoting wabao

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Where is the resistance area now?

Ignored

.8600 the psychological level. Support at .8545, the 50% fibo level in day chart

renzokuken

Nov 5, 2014 5:00pm

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how bout AUD/JPY is it effect to be sell also?

Trader#8CEA

Nov 5, 2014 5:25pm

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When the AUD is trending you will find it is not overly responsive to moving to news timings - and in this case it certainly will not fall without some move up but from my modelling of the market resistance (minor) to which it should rise to turn intraday is 0.86209 with an outside chance of spiking 0.86395 which is intraday mean line - but lets not forget we trade mean reverting markets and as such those levels approximate immediate lines from which a turn spells continuation. My 0.80000 Cents (AU).

The Crow (-_-)

Price rises exactly as it falls and falls exactly as it rises but is rising as it is falling and falling as it is rising.

Nice One!