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  • Why the NZ exchange rate is unjustified and unsustainable

    From govt.nz

    The Reserve Bank considers the level of the exchange rate is unjustified and unsustainable, and that it is susceptible to a significant downward adjustment, Governor Graeme Wheeler said in a statement today. Mr Wheeler said the Bank would welcome a move towards a more sustainable exchange rate level. In today’s statement, Mr Wheeler said that, when assessing the implications of current strength or weakness in the New Zealand dollar, the Bank focuses on two broad concepts – whether the exchange rate is unjustified, and whether it is unsustainable. The level of the exchange rate is unjustified when it is ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Sep 24, 2014 10:31pm Sep 24, 2014 10:31pm
  •  Trader#E0CA
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
long aud/nzd... 500 pips to 1000 pips... IS possible... why? because the Reserve Bank told us it's "UNSUSTAINABLE!"
  • #2
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  • Sep 24, 2014 10:40pm Sep 24, 2014 10:40pm
Why the australian government don't folow the same way of thinking????
Our economy would be much better.
  • #3
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  • Sep 24, 2014 10:44pm Sep 24, 2014 10:44pm
  •  Trader#63D2
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
That's the end of NZD. Prepare to see 0.7XXX
  • #4
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  • Sep 24, 2014 10:47pm Sep 24, 2014 10:47pm
  •  Trader#BD34
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
He gave the go ahead to dump...
  • #5
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  • Sep 24, 2014 10:48pm Sep 24, 2014 10:48pm
Umm.. They are helping the big boys to make money
  • #6
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  • Sep 24, 2014 10:50pm Sep 24, 2014 10:50pm
Ask and you shall receive. Echoing the above comment, the RBA need a few lessons from our small next door neighbour.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #7
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  • Sep 24, 2014 10:54pm Sep 24, 2014 10:54pm
because you raised the rate
don't find the correct answer in market. just feel it and follow the wave.
  • #8
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  • Sep 24, 2014 11:07pm Sep 24, 2014 11:07pm
nice....this all explains why the Eur/USD dropped further.
  • #9
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  • Sep 24, 2014 11:15pm Sep 24, 2014 11:15pm
Wheeler doesn't give a toss about the NZ economy,/ small business. Hes being paid by the big boys overseas , who will buy NZD today put it in the bank here /property and and get a damn sight more ROI because hes keeping up the bank rates. He is being controlled by the RBA and the Aussie banks.
You watch petrol will go up, cartage will increase ,products get more expensive but the poor old kiwi worker will get no pay rise.
  • #10
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  • Sep 24, 2014 11:36pm Sep 24, 2014 11:36pm
Hopefully some super smart exfxtrader has helped his country to a big slice of takeout remembering back now to gossip suggesting RBNZ intervention a few weeks ago. Hopefully they went short big time. Then come out with unsolicited report on unsustainable and unjustified. Should pay for a few legacy projects.
  • #11
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  • Sep 25, 2014 12:05am Sep 25, 2014 12:05am
Quoting Sniper2000
Wheeler doesn't give a toss about the NZ economy,/ small business. Hes being paid by the big boys overseas , who will buy NZD today put it in the bank here /property and and get a damn sight more ROI because hes keeping up the bank rates. He is being controlled by the RBA and the Aussie banks.
You watch petrol will go up, cartage will increase ,products get more expensive but the poor old kiwi worker will get no pay rise.
Something fishy, why he talked about this again? Such as this time..is he try to push down the nzd, because he knew that usd will be reverse? Try to push nzd more down before usd pullback? What number he/bank justify and sustainable for them? .5xxx lol
  • #12
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  • Sep 25, 2014 12:25am Sep 25, 2014 12:25am
NZD and AUD down same time against all other currencies . Same banks both countries. Very rotten smell. Must be big fish. LOL
  • #13
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  • Sep 25, 2014 1:43am Sep 25, 2014 1:43am
Expecting more down for NZDUSD, first target 0.7700 then 0.7580 then 0.7000.
  • #14
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  • Sep 25, 2014 3:54am Sep 25, 2014 3:54am
  •  Trader#C4FD
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
NZ has the highest interest rates which makes the carry trade profitable. Has already decreased significantly and now due for a swing back up.
  • #15
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  • Sep 25, 2014 4:19am Sep 25, 2014 4:19am
Why not lower interest rates rather than intervening in the fx market?
  • #16
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  • Sep 25, 2014 4:33am Sep 25, 2014 4:33am
Have you seen the date? 24 July OCR review. It is the worse period for trade balance for August and the rate is very very high, so we should not worry too much now and USD at that moment is rocket speedup-time.
  • #17
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  • Sep 25, 2014 4:38am Sep 25, 2014 4:38am
The document for the trade balance september told us very positive, e.g. 500% export to China, even milk powder price down the export more and got more money. China needs more livestock day and day.
  • #18
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  • Sep 25, 2014 5:31am Sep 25, 2014 5:31am
Time to buy will go to 0.82 by end of oct
  • #19
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  • Sep 25, 2014 5:34am Sep 25, 2014 5:34am
He didn't say anything when NU was 0.85. So why 0.80 is unsustainable?
  • #20
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  • Sep 25, 2014 5:35am Sep 25, 2014 5:35am
Quoting rk1111
Time to buy will go to 0.82 by end of oct
trust you!
  • #21
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  • Sep 25, 2014 6:03am Sep 25, 2014 6:03am
Quoting frx_trader
He didn't say anything when NU was 0.85. So why 0.80 is unsustainable?
He already done somthings at that time as he did on 15JULY2014 ( a great drop).
  • #22
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  • Sep 25, 2014 6:06am Sep 25, 2014 6:06am
Quoting frx_trader
He didn't say anything when NU was 0.85. So why 0.80 is unsustainable?
He gave special discount price for china consumer, and try their daily product, lol...
Kiwi goverment hope chinese consumer like nz daily, so they tried give a special price..
  • #23
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  • Sep 25, 2014 6:23am Sep 25, 2014 6:23am
Hes like the Hunt Brothers who tried to control the Silver prices. But He hasn't got a shit show. One hedge fund manager from overseas probably has more money than all of NZ. Like Corral says hes just given his mates overseas a huge discount while the kiwi people get screwed. Hes only looking out for no1 (himself). Just watch the NZD will be back up.
  • #24
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  • Sep 25, 2014 6:32am Sep 25, 2014 6:32am
Long AUDNZD is going to do even better then.
Think outside the box; opposite what they want you to think.
  • #25
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  • Sep 25, 2014 6:42am Sep 25, 2014 6:42am
Quoting Sniper2000
Hes like the Hunt Brothers who tried to control the Silver prices. But He hasn't got a shit show. One hedge fund manager from overseas probably has more money than all of NZ. Like Corral says hes just given his mates overseas a huge discount while the kiwi people get screwed. Hes only looking out for no1 (himself). Just watch the NZD will be back up.
I heard wheeler was a currency trader before? If yes, then maybe he is..
  • #26
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  • Sep 25, 2014 7:29am Sep 25, 2014 7:29am
Quoting Corral
I heard wheeler was a currency trader before? If yes, then maybe he is..
Yes. He was good at it
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #27
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  • Sep 25, 2014 8:35am Sep 25, 2014 8:35am
Quoting rk1111
Time to buy will go to 0.82 by end of oct
I hope you follow your own advice. You are just speculating based on your crazy thoughts hoping that someone new on this market believe in you. I just cash in 260 pips going short How much you get going long???????
  • #28
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  • Sep 25, 2014 2:26pm Sep 25, 2014 2:26pm
Give it a month you will see
  • #29
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  • Sep 25, 2014 6:54pm Sep 25, 2014 6:54pm
Quoting Sniper2000
Wheeler doesn't give a toss about the NZ economy,/ small business. Hes being paid by the big boys overseas , who will buy NZD today put it in the bank here /property and and get a damn sight more ROI because hes keeping up the bank rates. He is being controlled by the RBA and the Aussie banks.
You watch petrol will go up, cartage will increase ,products get more expensive but the poor old kiwi worker will get no pay rise.
Quoting Corral
I heard wheeler was a currency trader before? If yes, then maybe he is..
I do not believe that the NZD is overvalued as what Mr. Wheeler (RBNZ) has declared. As is shown by the latest NZ Trade Balance figures. In addition business optimism is also not as negative as is indicated by the latest Westpac Consumer confidence which came in at 16.7 points over the 100 threshold. Lets also not forget the Central Bank Rate for NZ at 3.5% is light years away from any other Central Bank. Accordingly I am not convinced that the recent weakness in the Kiwi is deserved. What I would interpret is that a strong NZ currency has an effect on NZ exports, although the latest Trade Balance figures would seem to counter that.
  • #30
  • Quote
  • Sep 25, 2014 7:22pm Sep 25, 2014 7:22pm
Quoting Corral
Something fishy, why he talked about this again? Such as this time..is he try to push down the nzd, because he knew that usd will be reverse? Try to push nzd more down before usd pullback? What number he/bank justify and sustainable for them? .5xxx lol
Last night I was trading the Euro / American market and I was surprised at what was the lack lustre results for the USD. It suddenly came to mind that if Mr. Wheeler (Dealer) had not made his comments known yesterday then the NZD would have grown wings and flown. There was no expected comments due from the RBNZ, hence the comments of Wheeler Dealer were placed onto the market so as to undermine the Kiwi and therefore weaken it. If this is the case, then it is quite apparent that Central Banks are communicating their latest results to each other, before they are publicly made known to the market. This brings to mind the old adage .... Don't Trust Bankers ......
  • #31
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  • Sep 25, 2014 7:50pm Sep 25, 2014 7:50pm
Too True................
  • #32
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  • Sep 26, 2014 3:16am Sep 26, 2014 3:16am
  •  Trader#9EB5
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
on the ground ,Auckland seems to be humming, money is being invested ,the sound of machinery is more honest ,the the average banker !
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  •  Trader#4112
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  • Posted: Sep 24, 2014 10:04pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: High Impact Breaking News
    Comments: 32  /  Views: 9,673