Euro breaks 1.28 in fall to fresh 14-month low

Quoting forexfoolish

Disliked

I have been shorting since 1.35; it is very simple: WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN.
How far down?
Does anybody remember the good old days when the Euro was 0.85?
That´s the bottom.

A FOOL AND HIS MONEY ARE SOON PARTED

Ignored

I think parity is better than 0.85. But I can see bulls having a little spike above 1.20, so everybody thinks the trend is changing.

OnlineAddict

Sep 24, 2014 2:25pm

Quoting Spike Surfer

Disliked

For the record I expect 1.3200-1.3400 to be the average price because that is the zone ECB would like to see mid term.

Ignored

If ECB wanted EU to be around 1.33, it wouldn't drop from 3150 towards 2920 within a few hours after the last ECB meeting. Or do you think ECB moves the currency in the opposite direction they want to have it in? If they wanted, they could have moved it up after the meeting.

michaelpelly

Sep 24, 2014 11:11pm

I really don't understand how people can furiously short the E/U pair after 4 month fall with 1200+ pips. And continuing to pull out self arguments out of their sleeves how this is justified. Everything bellow 1.28 is a buy opportunity - buy on dip, hedge it, if goes down buy more, hedge it, if go down a bit - buy it and hedge it. When trend start to reverse - get rid of some of the hedging and enjoy long ride up next couple months. Nothing dramatically changed so E/U would go to 1.10 or something - neither FED had risen the rate, neither ECB had actually started aggressive easing or some unorthodox measures. Noise would dissipate and we would have the same situation as the last summer - majority of the retailers aggressively shorting the euro and the cable for months while both currencies skyrocket. Amazing behavior.

Sep 24, 2014 11:42pm

Quoting michaelpelly

Disliked

I really don't understand how people can furiously short the E/U pair after 4 month fall with 1200+ pips.

Ignored

It is rather simple, actually. You hit the button that says "sell", until there is nothing left to sell, then when that's done, your "buy" orders will kick in for the ride up. Disney World teaches you to never stand up, or try to exit the ride, before it has come to a complete stop. Worrying about it being overbought, or oversold, or any of that mess only leaves one on the sidelines, where there is no money to be made. The trend is your friend, until it reverses, then you make a new friend.

Sep 24, 2014 11:49pm

Quoting Master_kiwa

Disliked

That is why 95% of retail lose. They follow the crowd, and when they least expect it whammmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.... The trend isn{t your friend, price is!

Ignored

I agree, and I think we were both typing at the same time. Great minds.......LOL

The point I was making is that no matter what pair you look at, or what time frame, there is always points of S/R, and the RSI seems to max out constantly. If you study all this too long, your head will explode, and not one position would be opened. You don't have to go with the crowd, but going against it, can make for an interesting view of negative numbers. Unless you can predict the moment of a turn, it is best to not be concerned with it. just set your stops, and targets, and the market does the rest. It's that simple. Over analyzing causes 95% retail losses.

Sep 25, 2014 12:00am

I only have one way to do business, and that is what PA the chart shows me once a day. I really am not concerned about what others are doing, because as you said, 95% of them will fail, however, I try to never go against a trend either. If you notice, none of my comments on this site ever contain numbers, or sets of numbers with decimal points. That is sucker play. I don't want to sit around doing boring math trying to make sense out of what may happen. Just go with what is happening, and you'll be fine. Stops and targets are the name of the game. Anything else takes up too much golf time. LOL Another no-no in my book is to news trade. That is the biggest joke of them all. Look how many times positive news comes out, and the market seems to do the opposite of the expected. Duh. The big boys, as they are called, were waiting, with nets cast, for the shrimp to just run their way. News trading is for those that can't afford a trip to Vegas, but still want to brag about being a full time gambler.

Sep 25, 2014 1:03am

Quoting redfx1989

Disliked

fundamental is not news, news is part of fundamental.

so when you know actual is bad but price up, or actual is good but price down, and you think that is fundamental... you know nothing

blame your self,,, dont blame big bank, big boy, big butt... they can effecting market but can't fully take control,, that's why sometime they release issue, rumours, provocation news.

they are not always reasson from move is different way with news result, few of traders know news before it released, last night, (24 september) eu drop before news...

Ignored

Wow, that's a lot of words. Too bad it makes no sense. Try again, and if I get another hour to try to decode it, I will. Otherwise, Happy Easter.

Sep 25, 2014 1:14am

Quoting redfx1989

Disliked

that not for human with malfunction brain

Ignored

What? Oh, OK. I see, you are trying to accomplish sentence building. First, think about what it is you are trying to communicate. Then Start with the first letter of the first word. Make that a big letter. Then, oh never mind, just keep doing what you're doing. We'll wait for the movie to come out.

Sep 25, 2014 8:15pm

Quoting Master_kiwa

Disliked

Hey buddy... How was trading today?

Ignored

Just like any other day. You win some, and lose some. Today was a good day, as I won more than I lost, but tomorrow may be a whole different ballgame. LOL

Sep 24, 2014 9:22am

Quoting Matraguna

Disliked

Unplanned event for this day and market manipulation.

Ignored

You are wrong man, I think so. However this pair will go 1.2300-1.2000 with in december 2014 then reverse. I am waiting for to take a buy from there.

Sep 25, 2014 11:44pm

Quoting pipskatcher

Disliked

Frankly speaking ...i don't see any reversal before 2500 .
it can be go lower side even 1.1500 . no big deal

Ignored

Not too much but really go down to 1.20
Just stay out from this pair.

irongoose

Sep 24, 2014 3:29pm

Everyone is just assuming that just because the price fell its time to buy or that the tread will continue............. in this market nothing is for certain and what people really need is a good entry and exit strategy and money management skills. Just ask yourself "How many times has the market done something unexpected?" I'm sure everyone could think of numerous times this has happened so just making assumptions alone won't cut it in the Forex market.

realclick

Sep 26, 2014 6:15am

Quoting redfx1989

Disliked

fundamental is not news, news is part of fundamental.

so when you know actual is bad but price up, or actual is good but price down, and you think that is fundamental... you know nothing

blame your self,,, dont blame big bank, big boy, big butt... they can effecting market but can't fully take control,, that's why sometime they release issue, rumours, provocation news.

they are not always reasson from move is different way with news result, few of traders know news before it released, last night, (24 september) eu drop before news...

Ignored

But sir I believe there are real fundamentals like interest rates that indeed affect the prices of currencies we should take not of real fundamentals and see the rests as opinions not fact

redfx1989

Sep 25, 2014 12:44am — Edited

fundamental is not news, news is part of fundamental.

so when you know actual is bad but price up, or actual is good but price down, and you think that is fundamental... you know nothing

blame your self,,, dont blame big bank, big boy, big butt... they can effecting market but can't fully take control,, that's why sometime they release issue, rumours, provocation news.

they are not always reasson from move is different way with news result, few of traders know news before it released, last night, (24 september) eu drop before news out.. tht is fresh example, sometime news already price in, sometime news is late effect, sometime pass news is effecting current news result, and sometime future news is effecting current news result.. and many others factor.
so when pair move different way with news,
and you think that is all about fundamental
so fundamental is just like gambling
non sense
joke

once again... YOU KNOW NOTHING

alot famous trading method,,, lets say.. elliot wave, price action, ichimoku, fibonacci, tokyo samurai, sma cross, robot trading.. and many others..

bad thing is, some retail trader thinking that method is reallible enough, never goes wrong, over confidence.. so they gonna said... BELIEVE YOUR CHART, DON"T BELIEVE NEWS.

what i believe 99% of traders have that mindset.. that is why, more than 90% of traders is losser.
because basicly, they desperating with technical, then migrating to try fundamental, but that not give more good result but more worst, so they back to technical and become anti fundamental.

fundamental is COMPASS
technical is MAP
wanna survive in jungle ? use both

if just use one of it, you gonna survive long enough at jungle, barking like tarzan, pretending master, pretending smart, but one day only small bite from snake will erease you

see... Soros, Buffet, Jesse Livermore, and others trading legend, you think they stay in cave without reading any newspaper.. do some vodo, yoga,.. then after that open trade ??

redfx1989

Sep 25, 2014 1:31am

Quoting Forextrapain

Disliked

What? Oh, OK. I see, you are trying to accomplish sentence building. First, think about what it is you are trying to communicate. Then Start with the first letter of the first word. Make that a big letter. Then, oh never mind, just keep doing what you're doing. We'll wait for the movie to come out.

Ignored

well i try to communicated with any of you all, who at here,,, not just you

and i just to try explain, what is fundamental to any trader who misunderstud or not understand yet.
perhaps also give my suggestion,, to blame your self for your mistake, dont always blame others people with big money, also dont blame fundamental because you fail use it to earn money, and saying fundamental is big joke of all

im not saying technical bad, or PA is bad, i also not saying fundamental is better than technical. i also technical, i also fundamental.. we all do our own technical, we may use or not use fundamental..

just please dont blame others guy, saying others method is bad, just to make you and yours method is good, or looks more better

classy

Sep 24, 2014 9:31am

Quoting Finance12

Disliked

Right , and EU now over sold according to all technical indicators, I think it will back to 1.3050

Ignored

sure one day it will but now .......dream

Chanlie

Sep 24, 2014 8:53am

Quoting pipskatcher

Disliked

i am sure noone can't stop EU till 1.2500

Ignored

i think so...

Spik

Sep 24, 2014 9:20am

Buying time. Finally.

Sep 24, 2014 9:51am

Quoting insomniawawa

Disliked

Lots of prophets on FF

Ignored

HAHA. I wish we had less prophets, and more profits.

Sep 25, 2014 1:42am

UMM, Yeah. OK. Thanks. Happy Easter to you too.

Sep 24, 2014 9:23am

Quoting pipskatcher

Disliked

i am sure noone can't stop EU till 1.2500

Ignored

Agree with you.

Sep 25, 2014 6:16am

Quoting insomniawawa

Disliked

Lots of prophets on FF

Ignored

What you are thinking now?

insomniawawa

Sep 24, 2014 9:36am

Lots of prophets on FF

Matraguna

Sep 24, 2014 9:10am

Unplanned event for this day and market manipulation.

althar

Sep 24, 2014 10:14am

Quoting Crucifix

Disliked

Ha ha ... now why people not shouting "Mighty EURO" will go to 1.4XXX ......

Ignored

LOL, true

braincooler

Sep 25, 2014 2:06am

Hahaha! you are funny guys! :-)

Indiana Pips

Sep 24, 2014 8:45am

There's very big support into 1.2760 zone

Crucifix

Sep 24, 2014 9:13am

Ha ha ... now why people not shouting "Mighty EURO" will go to 1.4XXX ......

forexfoolish

Sep 24, 2014 10:26am

I have been shorting since 1.35; it is very simple: WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN.
How far down?
Does anybody remember the good old days when the Euro was 0.85?
That´s the bottom.

A FOOL AND HIS MONEY ARE SOON PARTED

willylink

Sep 24, 2014 1:11pm

One big question for the house, does anyone know it get so low as this?. apparently none. so in my opinion forecasting is futile. what i do is to follow the BIG money. trade with the trend and stop picking tops and bottoms.

Spike Surfer

Sep 24, 2014 1:33pm

Up and down and up again.

If you have the time you will see any quote if you look at it over a decade.

For the record I expect 1.3200-1.3400 to be the average price because that is the zone ECB would like to see mid term.

Only problem is there is not much more easing that can be done for the Euro at this time after the negative interest rate. More negative? I wonder.

In any case I see it going back north of 1.33 within three months.

findmelost

Sep 24, 2014 2:01pm

Does anybody here leave their money in for long periods once they have taken a position. I like to close before the end of NY close and preferably at a significant support, But with a trend like this I am thinking I should at least have left some of my money in to ride out the trend. Anyone have a good strategy for staying in the trade.

forexfoolish

Sep 24, 2014 3:50pm

Re the previous posts, one thing is clear, in a trend, and the Euro is in a downtrend, the best strategy is a longterm position: Short and Hold your shorts.
The only problem, you will spend a lot of time in negative territory as the counter trender take positions against you. So be careful with your margin, even a 100 pips counter move is not impossible.
Speaking of tops and bottoms, it is the in and out trader who tries to pick them, not the trend trader. I know a bank employee who started shorting the Euro at 1.50, and is still making money, now more than before.
Short and enjoy.

A FOOL AND HIS MONEY SOON ARE PARTED

Sep 24, 2014 6:54pm

Quoting forexfoolish

Disliked

Re the previous posts, one thing is clear, in a trend, and the Euro is in a downtrend, the best strategy is a longterm position: Short and Hold your shorts.
The only problem, you will spend a lot of time in negative territory as the counter trender take positions against you. So be careful with your margin, even a 100 pips counter move is not impossible.
Speaking of tops and bottoms, it is the in and out trader who tries to pick them, not the trend trader. I know a bank employee who started shorting the Euro at 1.50, and is still making money,...

Ignored

Very good point! People will continue shorting, and they will be surprised when they see a 150 to 200 pip pop up in one trading session, followed by accumulation and then another pop up! Before you know it in 2 to 3 trading days your entire profit will be cleaned out as you assumed the move up was a STOP HUNT! I rather play both sides then only look at one. Yet, to each its own.

Sep 24, 2014 11:38pm

Quoting michaelpelly

Disliked

I really don't understand how people can furiously short the E/U pair after 4 month fall with 1200+ pips. And continuing to pull out self arguments out of their sleeves how this is justified. Everything bellow 1.28 is a buy opportunity - buy on dip, hedge it, if goes down buy more, hedge it, if go down a bit - buy it and hedge it. When trend start to reverse - get rid of some of the hedging and enjoy long ride up next couple months. Nothing dramatically changed so E/U would go to 1.10 or something - neither FED had risen the rate, neither ECB had...

Ignored

That is why 95% of retail lose. They follow the crowd, and when they least expect it whammmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.... The trend isn{t your friend, price is!

Sep 24, 2014 11:50pm

Quoting Forextrapain

Disliked

I agree, and I think we were both typing at the same time. Great minds.......LOL

The point I was making is that no matter what pair you look at, or what time frame, there is always points of S/R, and the RSI seems to max out constantly. If you study all this too long, your head will explode, and not one position would be opened. You don't have to go with the crowd, but going against it, can make for an interesting view of negative numbers. Unless you can predict the moment of a turn, it is best to not be concerned with it. just set your stops,...

Ignored

I love you Forextrapainn. My question to you is do you think it would be smart to go against the crowd during breakout or once the market is in accumulation?

redfx1989

Sep 25, 2014 1:08am

that not for human with malfunction brain

willylink

Sep 25, 2014 5:57am

Quoting findmelost

Disliked

Does anybody here leave their money in for long periods once they have taken a position. I like to close before the end of NY close and preferably at a significant support, But with a trend like this I am thinking I should at least have left some of my money in to ride out the trend. Anyone have a good strategy for staying in the trade.

Ignored

Use any Trend Following Strategy which is available for free on the internet.

forexfoolish

Sep 25, 2014 11:57am

Trend trading is different from the several ways of short trading.
You must leverage as little as possible.
You must watch your margin.
You must be certain of the fundamentals.
If 200 pips wipe out your account you have not a trend trade set up.
The Euro up trend went from 0.85 to almost 1.60, this did not happen in days, weeks or months, but it meant the Euro nearly doubled in value. A one cent move in 500K is $5K. If you stayed true with the trend you made almost half a million $$.
Try that with non trend trading.
As they say, The trend is your friend.

A FOOL AND HIS MONEY SOON ARE PARTED

Sep 25, 2014 8:00pm

Quoting willylink

Disliked

Trading with a sound money management will ensure you are still in the game during trendless movement, preparing you for the trend that will follow.

Ignored

Following price action will assure you that you are never on the wrong side of the SHORT term trend

Sep 25, 2014 8:00pm

Quoting Forextrapain

Disliked

I agree, and I think we were both typing at the same time. Great minds.......LOL

The point I was making is that no matter what pair you look at, or what time frame, there is always points of S/R, and the RSI seems to max out constantly. If you study all this too long, your head will explode, and not one position would be opened. You don't have to go with the crowd, but going against it, can make for an interesting view of negative numbers. Unless you can predict the moment of a turn, it is best to not be concerned with it. just set your stops,...

Ignored

Hey buddy... How was trading today?

Spike Surfer

Sep 25, 2014 10:16pm

Quoting OnlineAddict

Disliked

If ECB wanted EU to be around 1.33, it wouldn't drop from 3150 towards 2920 within a few hours after the last ECB meeting. Or do you think ECB moves the currency in the opposite direction they want to have it in? If they wanted, they could have moved it up after the meeting.

Ignored

They had to take measures to assist the Euro zone.

1.33 is Mid-term. Months. not days.

netwoxed

Sep 24, 2014 9:13am

EU is not going to 1.3050 unless something Marquee happens i think. the best for EU now is to consolidate and trade in range for a while for breaking lower again

pipskatcher

Sep 24, 2014 8:49am

i am sure noone can't stop EU till 1.2500

alaminmollah

Sep 24, 2014 8:52am

Quoting Indiana Pips

Disliked

There's very big support into 1.2760 zone

Ignored

1.2760 is not a stone and it is breakable. I think it is looking for under 1.2500

Finance12

Sep 24, 2014 9:06am

Quoting Indiana Pips

Disliked

There's very big support into 1.2760 zone

Ignored

Right , and EU now over sold according to all technical indicators, I think it will back to 1.3050

daren21

Sep 24, 2014 9:24am

mighty euro at 1.27749...
will go long at that price if it holds!

Aaronfb

Sep 24, 2014 11:22am

I don't care where it goes, as long as it keeps headed in that direction long enough for me to take advantage. Currently looks like selling is the easy way to go and the selling has been good to me.

findmelost

Sep 24, 2014 1:54pm

Quoting pipskatcher

Disliked

i am sure noone can't stop EU till 1.2500

Ignored

I was thinking the exact same thing today. I have a Big black line there just incase i forget.

Trader#4F1A

Sep 24, 2014 4:02pm