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Dollar Bulls in the Driver Seat, but Consolidation Looms
You go to a casino and meander over to the roulette table. It shows eight reds in a row. What do you do, knowing full well that each spin is an independent event, but also cognizant that probability argues against very long streaks too? Do you bet "red" that the streak continues to an even less probable nine, or do you bet on "black"? The euro has completed its eighth consecutive week depreciating against the dollar. This is the longest such streak in its relatively short history. The short-term speculative market has amassed a significant short euro position. Although the ECB may have surprised many with the rate ... (full story)
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