Australia Labour Force | Forex Factory

Australia Labour Force | Forex Factory

Australia Labour Force

From abs.gov.au

JULY KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased to 11,582,200 from a revised June 2014 estimate. Unemployment increased to 756,700. Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 6.1%, based on unrounded estimates. Participation rate remained steady at 64.7%. Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 2.8 million hours (0.2%) to 1,610.9 million hours. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment decreased 300 to 11,576,600. Full-time employment increased 14,500 to 8,077,400 and part-time employment decreased 14,800 to 3,499,200. Unemployment increased 43,700 to 789,000. The number of ... (full story)

Comments / Top
Subscribe

Aug 7, 2014 4:22am

It does seem more reasonable to see what will happen during the USA session as a reaction to this shocking news outcome; before we can determine an effective support level.

The European and London sessions have done little; but the US$ is the opposing currency in this pair, and so the USA session reaction I think needs to be established before determining that support level.

Quoting PA is King

Disliked

Thanks...looks like A/U isn't quite done yet, so I'm out for -10. Onto the next trade.

Ignored

Aug 7, 2014 9:07am

Seems you have missed nothing. All 3 of the European, London and USA sessions seem to have been "lemons" with no real effect or impact.

And that as you predicted earlier just after the suddenly bad news event, that circa 0.9250 does now seem to be the lower edge/support level for now.

Is much to be expected from tomorrow's RBA Monetary Policy Statement?

Is there any truth to the alleged "new ways to calculate and report the employment change" that caused this sudden and devastating employment change in Australia?

Certainly it is doubtful that UE numbers jumped from 6.0-6.4% in one month.

But fucked if I know; I've traded the Eur:USD exclusively, until it went soft-cocked 5 weeks ago with a lack of volatility.

Both yourself and JollyBean seem to know your onions on this pair.

Quoting PA is King

Disliked

I won't be around for the US session today so I leave all those pips for you guys to get! Happy Trading!

Ignored

Aug 7, 2014 9:17am — Edited

Ooops, I should have refreshed this page before posting the above to see your latest post.

Anyway, the facts remain the same.

It seems I am more conservative than yourself, in that whilst I trade 500 lots, I see support more likely for me to take the risk on at 0.9250. That after this level of bad news we could see PA bump along the bottom for a day or even a couple of days, perhaps glancing 0.9250 before reaching upwards again.

I am not sure why you opened your 0.9272 buy trade at the USA open. News 30 minutes later was yet to happen. No room for this most recent very bad Australian bad news to get room to breath.

Anyway, as said; this is not a pair I know. I have subscribed to you for the last many months to learn it from yourself and JollyBean

Quoting PA is King

Disliked

I jumped in a little early around .9285 last night...but I can see the bottom has formed more clearly now at .9260(7 hrs...7 1hr candles that have been rejected there). Now price is moving back up. Not to mention A/U has put in it's more "normal" ADR of 100pips. I would expect a retest of .9300 area at least. I'm in long again at .9272 with a stop just under the above mentioned support area. Cheers!

Ignored

Aug 6, 2014 9:05pm

Quoting Kok Teong

Disliked

Support at .9250?

Ignored

Good question, I'm not sure...just have to be patient and see what the charts say. So far this week price hasn't been able to close below last weeks low of .9274.

The ADR on Aussie has been fairly small these days too...generally less than 100pips. Considering it's already dropped 64pips tonight, there really isn't much room to go lower. Possibly .9250...but then again, .9290 area has been pretty much the support area for this week and it seems to be stalling right now. Happy Trading!

Aug 6, 2014 10:50pm

Quoting JollyBean

Disliked

Horrible data.

Ignored

Yeah, it was a bit of a surprise to be that bad.

However, I think we've found our temporary bottom for now. A nearly 80pip selloff just during the Asian session is a rather large move...pretty much Aussie's ADR. I'm trying a long here at .9285 with a fairly tight/small stoploss. Cheers!

Aug 7, 2014 12:02am

Quoting JollyBean

Disliked

Good luck to ya...

I might add to longs only if it goes to low .92's. But technically I do see the case for a bounce at this point.

However, even if it goes up, price will likely remain subdued for awhile due to this disappointing data.

Either way, trade safe!

Ignored

Thanks...looks like A/U isn't quite done yet, so I'm out for -10. Onto the next trade.

Aug 7, 2014 5:21am

Quoting dancingphil

Disliked

It does seem more reasonable to see what will happen during the USA session as a reaction to this shocking news outcome; before we can determine an effective support level.

The European and London sessions have done little; but the US$ is the opposing currency in this pair, and so the USA session reaction I think needs to be established before determining that support level.

Ignored

I won't be around for the US session today so I leave all those pips for you guys to get!

Happy Trading!

Aug 7, 2014 6:52am

I jumped in a little early around .9285 last night...but I can see the bottom has formed more clearly now at .9260(7 hrs...7 1hr candles that have been rejected there). Now price is moving back up. Not to mention A/U has put in it's more "normal" ADR of 100pips. I would expect a retest of .9300 area at least. I'm in long again at .9272 with a stop just under the above mentioned support area. Cheers!

Aug 7, 2014 9:28pm

Quoting dancingphil

Disliked

Seems you have missed nothing. All 3 of the European, London and USA sessions seem to have been "lemons" with no real effect or impact.

And that as you predicted earlier just after the suddenly bad news event, that circa 0.9250 does now seem to be the lower edge/support level for now.

Is much to be expected from tomorrow's RBA Monetary Policy Statement?

Is there any truth to the alleged "new ways to calculate and report the employment change" that caused this sudden and devastating employment change in Australia?

Certainly it is doubtful...

Ignored

Sorry it took so long to reply, I've been rather busy today. I must say, that's pretty impressive to trade 500 lots...you must work for a hedge fund or bank. hehe

I agree with you, AU went nowhere during US session today...I actually exited my trade for +4pips after a few hours of sideways price action.

While I'm still bullish as long as price is above .9200, I am also aware of the possibility things might be changing on A/U. Everything works in cycles so this could be the start of a new cycle. I'll just have to be patient and let things develop. And if I do trade and happen to get it wrong, I keep my losses small. Happy Trading!

Aug 6, 2014 10:03pm

Quoting mmforexinfo

Disliked

I have a strong feeling that every time the AUD is pushed down due to our bad economy management the Government do something quietly to bring the value up again. Lets see...

Ignored

It seems the government has done something quietly to make the AUD go down, or at least reduce volatility. They seem to have changed the way they measure the statistics.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-jumps-to-more-than-10year-high-20140807-101a9n.html

CHANGES IN SAMPLE AND MEASUREMENTS
A sample rotation used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics seems to have had an impact on the unemployment rate.

"The incoming rotation group for July 2014 had a lower proportion of employed persons and a higher proportion of unemployed persons compared to the sample it replaced," the ABS said.
A third of the change in the unemployment rate could be attributed to that change, the bureau said.

It is very difficult to get a clear reading of employment given the change in methodology of measuring those seeking work, an ANZ senior economist, Justin Fabo said.

"Most other labour market indicators are improving, at least slowly, so the jump in the unemployment does look odd in that regard. We'll need the August report to confirm that view," Mr Fabo said.

The ABS said in the release that there is no evidence that the changes in methodology impacted estimates for unemployment.

Aug 6, 2014 9:59pm

I thought it is the other way round?

Quoting mmforexinfo

Disliked

But I will not be surprised at all if we see the AUD jump back to the 0.94ish area. I have a strong feeling that every time the AUD is pushed down due to our bad economy management the Government do something quietly to bring the value up again. Lets see...

Ignored

Aug 6, 2014 11:08pm

Quoting PA is King

Disliked

Yeah, it was a bit of a surprise to be that bad.

However, I think we've found our temporary bottom for now. A nearly 80pip selloff just during the Asian session is a rather large move...pretty much Aussie's ADR. I'm trying a long here at .9285 with a fairly tight/small stoploss. Cheers!

Ignored

Good luck to ya...

I might add to longs only if it goes to low .92's. But technically I do see the case for a bounce at this point.

However, even if it goes up, price will likely remain subdued for awhile due to this disappointing data.

Either way, trade safe!

Aug 6, 2014 9:47pm

I wouldn't go that far PipExpress.. but I think it will drop to 0.92233 and further down to 0.89036. That should be the right value for the AUD .That way our economy may see some light at the end of the dark tunnel we have been travelling for the last few years. But I will not be surprised at all if we see the AUD jump back to the 0.94ish area. I have a strong feeling that every time the AUD is pushed down due to our bad economy management the Government do something quietly to bring the value up again. Lets see...

Aug 6, 2014 10:09pm

Quoting Kok Teong

Disliked

I thought it is the other way round?

Ignored

What you mean by that? The strong AUD is hurting our economy bad. Our economy is strongly based on the Import / Export. With a strong currency the countries who buy from us reduce their orders. China is one of them. During the recession in 1991 due to the AUD high value ( it was 1 AUD = 1 USD) our economy took a bit longer to recover. The best AUD value is between 0.882.. to 0.897... Below or above it is not good, affects a lot of our industries that at the moment are not doing very well. But the only people who do not understand this is our Economy minister. Anyway what can you expected from a Economy minister who don't understand anything about economy??? He is a lawyer not an economist and he is one of the crooks among others in this govern.

Aug 6, 2014 10:26pm

If they don't do that companies end up closing down or firing people because become more expensive to produce something that no one wants to buy. A lot people think that a strong currency is always good for a country but that is not true.
Just for curiosity it is not related to the AUD but you can have a clear idea about this "paradigma". This two articles are very good about this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/business/economy/22view.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3457/currency/problems-of-a-strong-currency/

Aug 6, 2014 8:43pm

Congrats to those who made pips. This is a nice pullback...one I was hoping for. Now to see if it finds support.

Aug 6, 2014 8:31pm

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSsssss

Aug 6, 2014 8:35pm

Ichimoku Level fail & Strong Resistance level of 0.9350 once again fail to break so today through out the market Aud fall to 0.9250 ,sky fall start ?

Aug 6, 2014 10:18pm

Quoting mmforexinfo

Disliked

What you mean by that? The strong AUD is hurting our economy bad. Our economy is strongly based on the Import / Export. With a strong currency the countries who buy from us reduce their orders. China is one of them. During the recession in 1991 due to the AUD high value ( it was 1 AUD = 1 USD) our economy took a bit longer to recover. The best AUD value is between 0.882.. to 0.897... Below or above it is not good, affects a lot of our industries that at the moment are not doing very well. But the only people who do not understand this is our Economy...

Ignored

The problem is every country is trying to lower their currency. So it is a race to the bottom

Aug 6, 2014 8:50pm

Support at .9250?

Quoting PA is King

Disliked

Congrats to those who made pips. This is a nice pullback...one I was hoping for. Now to see if it finds support.

Ignored

Aug 6, 2014 10:28pm

Horrible data.

Aug 6, 2014 10:12pm

Just a complement Kok Teong if a strong currency was a good thing why so many countries like China, Swiss and NZ have a ceiling for their currencies?

Aug 6, 2014 8:37pm

I had a feel on this one and I was right! Thank you fake news!!

Aug 6, 2014 8:40pm

Whoever released this news had me in mind. All GREEN everything!!!

In God I trust.

Aug 6, 2014 9:37pm

Quoting Kok Teong

Disliked

Support at .9250?

Ignored

Technically, around 0.893

Trader#A633

Aug 7, 2014 1:12am

Quoting PA is King

Disliked

Thanks...looks like A/U isn't quite done yet, so I'm out for -10. Onto the next trade.

Ignored

Correct 0.9049 is what I would call a hard bounce (a market clearing price point on the unitary scale) and as such the unit is now phased down. This implies that we have granular TF-2 (D1) trending down so any uprising to this downfalling trend will be corrective to the trend until circa 0.8887. Of course there will be several reaction price points in the swing down but the most crucial for recalculating the market would be 0.9091 (still far down though).

Cheers and best of the trades (like your price action readings)

The Crow

Trader#A633

Aug 7, 2014 1:25am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

Correct 0.9049 is what I would call a hard bounce (a market clearing price point on the unitary scale) and as such the unit is now phased down.

Cheers and best of the trades (like your price action readings)

The Crow

Ignored

Sorry mate FAT finger there meant 0.95049 not 0.9049 regret the typo.

Trader#F2B8

Aug 6, 2014 9:06pm

nice pullback, support looks at 0.9210. because point has touched this line for 2 time, monthly support 1 looks here.

Related Stories

There are no posts to display for these settings.

Story Stats

Aug 6, 2014 8:30pm
Posted by
Newsstand

High Impact Breaking

28

7,758
Linked events:

AU Employment Change

AU Unemployment Rate