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  • Euro area annual inflation down to 0.5%

    From europa.eu Story is in PDF Format

    Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 0.5% in May 2014, down from 0.7% in April, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, services is expected to have the highest annual rate in May (1.1%, compared with 1.6% in April), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (0.1%, compared with 0.7% in April), nonenergy industrial goods (0.0%, compared with 0.1% in April) and energy (0.0%, compared with -1.2% in April).

Well, this is unexpected..... not!
If Draghi decides not to lower interest rates on Thursday, we shall see EUR skyrocketing.
Or is it too obvious again?
Not bad if you exclude food, alcohol, and energy.
The indust. goods good for producers.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.250.20
EU go up contrast to the forcast
I would not say that there is deflation, its just the global slowdown of growth which affect EU too.
My feeling is that Draghi will do nothing as usual!
An interest rate cut will have absolutely no "real world effect" on the economy and is already priced in.

He can't print and he's not buying bonds so with USD long over due for a pullback and EUR at solid support it's pretty obvious the market is setting up to "sell the new" / buy EUR regardless of whatever Draghi "doesn't do".
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.4.21
So what is the market expectation now. Buy eur or sell?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.163.194
I think draghi cut the interest rate
i prefer buy pound against euro, i think euro will fall deeper if ECB cut rate on thursday
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.4.253
Well assuming this headline is correct (given we are now in an era where releases could be wrong to the point of being completely misleading in implication ala USD data) ---))) that seals the case for fundamentalists does it not? May be we can now rest from the rants and get a clearer view of the price action. At least I hope.

Playing the market is not the same as playing a video game The crow
Quoting Guest
Well assuming this headline is correct (given we are now in an era where releases could be wrong to the point of being completely misleading in implication ala USD data) ---))) that seals the case for fundamentalists does it not? May be we can now rest from the rants and get a clearer view of the price action. At least I hope.

Playing the market is not the same as playing a video game The crow
Lol.....Yesterday's data was indeed surprising....
well from my view inflation rate fall so the central bank wants to cut the interest rate also.am i right?
if wrong plz explain.
Market Makers are still holding on to shorts, we should expect profit taking activities to be carried out as soon as Draghi announces rate cut. Be cautioned if you are shorting in this last leg of the move..
I'm mving long EUR here in particular against the commods both AUD as well NZD.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.62.130
EURUSD will hit 1.3500/3480 not because inflation is slow or ECB will cut rates.. just because charts say so!
Now I think it's time for the beers to collect their profit. Euro will go up
Quoting Zaatar
Now I think it's time for the beers to collect their profit. Euro will go up
agreed
Euro is giving a very good price to go for short before ECB meeting...?
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:33am Jun 3, 2014 8:32am | Edited at 8:33am
short euro at 1.36455 as Mr.Fibo is sitting pretty at the 50 level...But wait for some candle confirmation...
So basically no one has a clue what is going to happen! Too many conflicting opinions on this thread and it is compounded by some of the media deliberately misleading traders. We are basicallly involved in a game of subterfuge and educated guesswork!
Quoting 17607
short euro at 1.36455 as Mr.Fibo is sitting pretty at the 50 level...But wait for some candle confirmation...
don't destroy your money.
I'm staying out till something important happens. Trading now will be burning money..
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.X.15.26
Daily timeframe, 29.05. - "morningstar" SL. 1.3575 enter long 1.3635 tp1 1.37
But its just me...
Quoting Guest
EURUSD will hit 1.3500/3480 not because inflation is slow or ECB will cut rates.. just because charts say so!
Chart!!! Fuc...... Chart is nothing but a toy.... Market doesn't move by chart but chart is always moving by market. He who trade with the help of chart is not a today's trader. Trade by data is a today's trader.
Quoting Forex Kong
I'm mving long EUR here in particular against the commods both AUD as well NZD.
I agree but only very short term. Draghi's insanity going to send EUR back to 1.38 and maybe above but then I think EUR going to start heading back down by Friday jobs report etc.
Quoting Guest
So what is the market expectation now. Buy eur or sell?
News don't create trends or directions. Follow your charts, its all written there, news just create spikes to load up in the right direction.
Quoting Guest
EURUSD will hit 1.3500/3480 not because inflation is slow or ECB will cut rates.. just because charts say so!
Quoting Ringkon
Chart!!! Fuc...... Chart is nothing but a toy.... Market doesn't move by chart but chart is always moving by market. He who trade with the help of chart is not a today's trader. Trade by data is a today's trader.
LOL Data doesn't move anything...
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.142.255
Quoting OnlineAddict
LOL Data doesn't move anything...
Wrong.

A chart is nothing but an indicator of what price is doing, and technically lagging at that. By lagging I mean it represents transactions that have already occurred. Just because a chart shows you some pattern does not mean that you will automatically win the trade. I can find tons of instances where a pin bar worked, yet I can also find plenty where it didn't. Why? Because there's a lot more to it besides a pin bar. That pin bar is actually representing order flow. There was a reason that pin bar occured, for instance for a bullish pin bar, aggregate sell order flow was strong and then became exhausted (meaning no new sellers stepped in). After that, bulls took control and created that pin bar you see.

Data DOES create trends. Big profitable traders don't look at a chart and just take trades. Otherwise they would be in the small winning or losing category. They look at fundamentals, technicals, and all the other scenarios that can generate sufficient order flow. Granted, one strong NFP number does not mean anything. But that is where the fallacy is. Big players don't trade off of one number. They look at a trend of good numbers to park/invest their money in. A chart just shows them putting their money in, in the form of candlesticks or bar sticks or whatever. It IS a lagging indicator.

Can charts alone be used to be profitable? Yes. But you can be much more profitable paying attention to all the things that can cause price to change.

Don't knock something that you don't understand how to use.
Quoting Ringkon
Chart!!! Fuc...... Chart is nothing but a toy.... Market doesn't move by chart but chart is always moving by market. He who trade with the help of chart is not a today's trader. Trade by data is a today's trader.
Weren't you around in May when currency price did reverse of US Data all month?
Quoting PaulAmbrose
Weren't you around in May when currency price did reverse of US Data all month?
That's because the data wasn't the biggest thing in play. One example is the Ukraine crisis which led to a flight to safe haven assets. The US was one country in the forefront of the Ukraine crisis, and with an unknown future and a small risk of war, who would want to be invested in the US currency?

This whole TA vs. FA debate is overplayed. FACT: TA DOES NOT move price. FA DOES NOT move price. There is only ONE thing that moves price and that is ORDERS. A heads and shoulder pattern on a chart means nothing unless orders come in to fulfill that successful heads and shoulder pattern. There are plenty of instances where that or a pin bar or whatever did not work out because the orders just weren't there. A good NFP number means nothing unless market participants enter orders which result in bullish price action. TA causes orders. FA causes orders. Stop hunting causes orders. Option barrier fights cause orders. Political situations cause orders. The list goes on and on.

FA does cause trends, but one number means nothing. Putting an order in after one good reading IS NOT how to trade fundamentals. It is a trend of numbers which causes market participants to act upon and invest their money in that currency. TA shows that on a chart as completed transactions. In that sense, price charts are technically lagging indicators. BUT they are one of the most useful tools in a traders tool box. Price action essentially allows you to read the order flow and get an idea of what the market is trying to do.

People really need to stop arguing about TA vs. FA when they do not understand how markets operate.
Quoting Guest
Wrong.

A chart is nothing but an indicator of what price is doing, and technically lagging at that. By lagging I mean it represents transactions that have already occurred. Just because a chart shows you some pattern does not mean that you will automatically win the trade. I can find tons of instances where a pin bar worked, yet I can also find plenty where it didn't. Why? Because there's a lot more to it besides a pin bar. That pin bar is actually representing order flow. There was a reason that pin bar occured, for instance for a bullish pin...
Man, I never said charts work 100%, they don't But fundamentals don't mean anything in currency wars. I'm an economic, all fundamental data you see, is fake, its all made up, I can make 3 different numbers about the same, I can give you 3 completely different unemployment numbers and all will be right.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.4.14
Quoting OnlineAddict
Man, I never said charts work 100%, they don't But fundamentals don't mean anything in currency wars. I'm an economic, all fundamental data you see, is fake, its all made up, I can make 3 different numbers about the same, I can give you 3 completely different unemployment numbers and all will be right.
I am an economist too. I have been around for a long time and I have tried to give the same impression as you from the point of view of economics and economists.

I think it is best to a) show people the difference between normative and real economic analysis b) lots of people trade data and so cannot believe that data does not move anything (which it does not very clearly). However given we would be talking to a wall trying to explain that may be it is best to explain that the proportion of money bet based on data at any given time varies and it may not be enough at anytime to sustain immediate objectives of those playing by data and or see follow through that defines a trend suggested by the trend in data (or something like that).

Traders are so convinced about this fundamentals thing being real that they would eat you raw if you tried to tell them the truth directly so may be best to find contexts to which they can relate. What is funny is that if fundamentals in fact predicted anything ----- I guess trained economists like us would be multi billionaires - but people do not like their dreams interrupted while it feels nice.

The market is not user friendly The Crow
Quoting FXMasterSK
That's because the data wasn't the biggest thing in play. One example is the Ukraine crisis which led to a flight to safe haven assets. The US was one country in the forefront of the Ukraine crisis, and with an unknown future and a small risk of war, who would want to be invested in the US currency?

This whole TA vs. FA debate is overplayed. FACT: TA DOES NOT move price. FA DOES NOT move price. There is only ONE thing that moves price and that is ORDERS. A heads and shoulder pattern on a chart means nothing unless orders come in to fulfill that...
Thanks for showing details
Quoting OnlineAddict
Man, I never said charts work 100%, they don't But fundamentals don't mean anything in currency wars. I'm an economic, all fundamental data you see, is fake, its all made up, I can make 3 different numbers about the same, I can give you 3 completely different unemployment numbers and all will be right.
You are a economic, aren't you? Wow. What you think, you gave 3 different data and market will not move? The data is fake or true doesn't mean anything when it released, market must move. If the data was fake then move again to its correct trend.
Quoting Ringkon
You are a economic, aren't you? Wow. What you think, you gave 3 different data and market will not move? The data is fake or true doesn't mean anything when it released, market must move. If the data was fake then move again to its correct trend.
Ok, keep trading the news...its your money.
Wow, a debate FA vs TA, and suddenly market will move. Ok, I have another one: Dynamic Theory. Market moves to stabilize demand and supply. Action = Reaction, etc. etc. bla bla bla.

Somebody will sooner or later write something about Wave Theory, Chaos Theory, etc, etc.

And nonetheless, conspiracy theory, market rig theory, etc, etc.

Then what? Only Profits and Losses matter to me.
need vote?
  •  Guest
  • | IP X.XXX.174.50
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