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  • Marc Faber Is Predicting Another Crisis

    From wallstcheatsheet.com

    Famed investor Marc Faber — author of the Doom, Boom, and Gloom report — recently told CNBC that he believes that we could be setting up for a crisis that is bigger than the one that took place in 2008. The reason is that the economic recovery is largely a product of excessive government spending and an increase in indebtedness as opposed to an increase in the world’s productive capacity and an improvement in people’s living standards. His observation is largely correct. Governments are becoming more indebted as they implement stimulus plans in order to improve the economy. While interest rates are low they ... (full story)

"The reason is that the economic recovery is largely a product of excessive government spending and an increase in indebtedness as opposed to an increase in the world’s productive capacity and an improvement in people’s living standards"

Wow...I'm impressed. I'm just a carpenter and I could have told you that 10/20 years ago.

Hang on folks, when it comes to crises, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
the reality of any chatroom is that nobody gives a shit and maybe think they are gaming so another's life is only a button push to them......ok.....
Quoting The Fool
You're all gonna die.
To quote Zeroheage, "on a long enough time line everyone's survival rate is zero." Lol.

I like people like Faber and Schiff for the very fact that they try to find red flags when others are shooting hopium.

Schiff was saying in 2005, 2006 and 2007 that subprime was going to blow up, he was literally laughed at. 2008 we have the largest housing meltdown in history due to subprime.

People blow off these doom and gloomers and say well why hasn't it happened yet, yada yada. These guys aren't fortune tellers, just truth tellers. They give you economic flaws and potential outcomes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zz_yw0kq3MM
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
Quoting Pip Anon
To quote Zeroheage, "on a long enough time line everyone's survival rate is zero." Lol.

I like people like Faber and Schiff for the very fact that they try to find red flags when others are shooting hopium.

Schiff was saying in 2005, 2006 and 2007 that subprime was going to blow up, he was literally laughed at. 2008 we have the largest housing meltdown in history due to subprime.

People blow off these doom and gloomers and say well why hasn't it happened yet, yada yada. These guys aren't fortune tellers, just truth tellers. They give you...
Exactly Pip. Folks like them, you and I, many others start talking about what's "really" going on i.e....the truth, and the best we'll ever be are "conspiracy theorists". Then when it hits the fan everyone is like "Why didn't someone say something? "

What a world eh?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
Albchr, Pip Anon, as we and others all know, you can NOT print Trillions of US$ and AVOID watering down the dollar's worth in the World.

The US Govt is so addicted to telling fairy-tales that it has come to believe its own nonsense.

The US is imploding, and I am not shy when I say "cool". My 12,400 ounces of gold will be happy with the transition of power process.

What we need is a NON-warring nation like China to get the human race back on track.

I'm sure China will get over the Trillion dollar rip-off the USA has perpetuated on them, soon (couple of years soon) to be worth 10 cents on the dollar.

Solid link Pip Anon
Faber makes his money out of statements of doom, if you keep at it you will eventually be right, in my view he offers nothing. Lets face it, even a broken clock is right twice a day
LOL... screaming the sky is falling is pointless doom and gloom. Telling how, why and likely when in detail BEFORE it happens is just a wee bit more.

And... not a 24 hour military clock
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
It doesn't really matter how compelling the argument may be from the doom and gloom merchants , most traders are only interested in whats going to move the market on Monday or the rest of the week or month . I don't think its worth wasting too much time worrying about what may or may not happen over the longer term .



Trade what you SEE , not what you THINK .
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it's not even Faber on the picture in the article....dumb journalists.
Quoting dancingphil
Albchr, Pip Anon, as we and others all know, you can NOT print Trillions of US$ and AVOID watering down the dollar's worth in the World.

The US Govt is so addicted to telling fairy-tales that it has come to believe its own nonsense.

The US is imploding, and I am not shy when I say "cool". My 12,400 ounces of gold will be happy with the transition of power process.

What we need is a NON-warring nation like China to get the human race back on track.

I'm sure China will get over the Trillion dollar rip-off the USA has perpetuated on them,...

It is clear that the next 18 year cycle has started. My guess is that it will end with the "Helium 3 bubble of 2032" that being said I am afraid it looks like another round of "American world domination".
He "makes his money" as an investor.


Quoting hjkl185
Faber makes his money out of statements of doom, if you keep at it you will eventually be right, in my view he offers nothing. Lets face it, even a broken clock is right twice a day
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting Ryano
It doesn't really matter how compelling the argument may be from the doom and gloom merchants , most traders are only interested in whats going to move the market on Monday or the rest of the week or month . I don't think its worth wasting too much time worrying about what may or may not happen over the longer term . Trade what you SEE , not what you THINK .
All true (except the "doom and gloom merchant" part) however, I don't think the conversation here is just about trading. Some of us have a slightly larger view of the world than just from our trading desk. Like what the world will look like for our children, grandchildren and beyond.

I for one am very concerned about that slightly "larger picture". I think all others should be as well. I believe it's that kind of short sighted bury our happy heads in the sand that allowed much of the current worldwide situation to develop completely unchecked.

But the train is going full speed headed for the bridge that's out and the conductor (the richest of the rich) has no concern for the passengers (us) because sitting in front with all our ticket money, he's the only one who knows what's coming and when it's time to jump off. Anyone who thinks he'll "apply the breaks" beforehand has spent too much time in the bar car being "happy" me thinks...lol

I often wonder if, even if ALL the passengers ran for the breaks at once, would it still be too little too late.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
Quoting Spreadbetter
He "makes his money" as an investor.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
That's not Marc Faber in the photo -- Imposter Alert!
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photo is not of Marc Faber? meaning it's a hoax story?

http://www.google.co.za/imgres?imgurl=http://images.catholic.org/ins_news/2012082639faber.jpeg&imgrefurl=https://www.catholic.org/news/business/story.php?id%3D47353&h=238&w=211&tbnid=nDOFmlvJfAY_ZM:&zoom=1&tbnh=118&tbnw=103&usg=__Mt6BFPJM4B_-ha6WhGUvRPeIyNc=&docid=JZXqdL6BeawJzM&itg=1&client=firefox-a&sa=X&ei=E3RuU6CpGeed7ga9ioH4BQ&ved=0CJMBEPwdMAw

who said this? " I have a record of crying wolf ... I did it first in The Alchemy of Finance (in 1987), then in The Crisis of Global Capitalism (in 1998) and now in this book. So it's three books predicting disaster. (After) the boy cried wolf three times ... the wolf really came."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Soros
Quoting Ryano
It doesn't really matter how compelling the argument may be from the doom and gloom merchants , most traders are only interested in whats going to move the market on Monday or the rest of the week or month . I don't think its worth wasting too much time worrying about what may or may not happen over the longer term .

Trade what you SEE , not what you THINK .
True to a point. You have to think in order to be effective. Now, that's not saying you have to make it difficult for yourself, which over-thinking is what leads many down a path of problems.

We can say, "hey, I'm only interested in today." However, today's action largely depicts what has happened in the near past and what may happen in the future. It's easy to think that you'll just trade what's in front of you in that moment.

Those that thought it was a great idea to long the dollar after the non-farms got their arses handed to them (luckily for me I sold into the strength because I had a thought it was a BS move).

Traded involves thought. As traders, it is prudent to have an idea of what may happen in a given situation. Not saying to necessarily trade off it, but Paulson made a fortune shorting subprimes when everyone and their mother thought housing would never crash.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
Quoting albchr
Exactly Pip. Folks like them, you and I, many others start talking about what's "really" going on i.e....the truth, and the best we'll ever be are "conspiracy theorists". Then when it hits the fan everyone is like "Why didn't someone say something? "

What a world eh?
Quoting dancingphil
Albchr, Pip Anon, as we and others all know, you can NOT print Trillions of US$ and AVOID watering down the dollar's worth in the World.

The US Govt is so addicted to telling fairy-tales that it has come to believe its own nonsense.

The US is imploding, and I am not shy when I say "cool". My 12,400 ounces of gold will be happy with the transition of power process.

What we need is a NON-warring nation like China to get the human race back on track.

I'm sure China will get over the Trillion dollar rip-off the USA has perpetuated on them,...
It is important to get down to the nitty gritty. I wish things were better, but I'm not going to sugar coat it just to make myself feel better. Look at the housing market deterioration. It's looking like 2008, again a pricing bubble that was propped up due to central bank interference.

The FOMC minutes said that their is "momentum" in the economy in April, now Yellen told the Congressional panel that housing is deteriorating and the labor market still sucks. So, which is it? Is it getting better or worse? The Fed what its cake and eat it too. Is good enough to "taper", mind you the Fed has stopped then continued QE three previous times in five years, but we must have low rates for infinity.

Pretending it will all be ok does nobody any justice. I don't think there will be an apocalypse, but I think there will be some pain.. maybe a lot of pain to purge the system of bullshite.

If I could trade bullshite futures, I would buying calls, selling puts. Anyone see the price of food lately? Maybe not a trade in there, but I'm learning how to cultivate a garden. Things that could make my family's life better turning times of economical difficulties.

My parents were hard working. They both excelled at what they did and made a combined income near $100k. We were comfortable, but 2008 changed. They both lost their jobs, and they had no savings because at the time they didn't "need" any. The townhouse they bought in 1992 went from $84k to $320K in 2008. The remaining mortgage was $120k (they opened a line of equity) as the townhouse value fell to $72k.

So, naysayers can say the grass is greener and the future never matters until it does. Nobody buys health issues after they broke their leg.

Faber and Schiff may seem silly, but they are merely the man on the crows nest yelling "iceberg, right ahead" before the Titanic (US - the unsinkable economy) crashes.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
Quoting Pip Anon
.... Not saying to necessarily trade off it, but Paulson made a fortune shorting subprimes when everyone and their mother thought housing would never crash.
IMHO that's because he knew....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
Quoting Pip Anon
It is important to get down to the nitty gritty. I wish things were better, but I'm not going to sugar coat it just to make myself feel better. Look at the housing market deterioration. It's looking like 2008, again a pricing bubble that was propped up due to central bank interference.

The FOMC minutes said that their is "momentum" in the economy in April, now Yellen told the Congressional panel that housing is deteriorating and the labor market still sucks. So, which is it? Is it getting better or worse? The Fed what its cake and eat it too....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
Quoting Exodus
IMHO that's because he knew....
Ahhhh...but "how" did he know? Was it dirty under the table dealings or did he simply pay attention and see the writing on the wall? Much like Farber and Schiff did?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
Quoting Exodus
IMHO that's because he knew....
Yea, he knew. Schiff was preaching the subprime bubble in 2005 and nobody paid attention.

To quote the great lyricist Marilyn Manson, "you can't see the forest from the trees, when you can't smell your own shit on your knees."

Oblivious to the obvious is unbecoming.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
Quoting albchr
Ahhhh...but "how" did he know? Was it dirty under the table dealings or did he simply pay attention and see the writing on the wall? Much like Farber and Schiff did?
In the UK there were signs of the next (as it was in 2007) disaster on the high street. It was possible to obtain a mortgage for more than the face value of the security. You would have had to have seen that before to know what was coming next. 1989 or '90 was the last time I saw that in the UK.

In the US you had 'liar loans', as my cousin put it. She lived in California at the time. I have no idea how visible this sort of lending practice is to the man on the street, but also at the time the US was enjoying the Greenspan stimulus with interest rates where they are today, and then inflation lifted and interest rates followed - and all those with low-paid jobs who had massive mortgages (and who had been paying them until that event) were suddenly unable to pay their mortgages.

The real crimes were those who packaged the subprime mortgages into SIVs and sold them as 'AAA' rated investments to the greedy herd. ...and here we are today. Shady dealings were not confined to the US, the guy who worked for the Halifax bank (in the UK) was fired for suggesting that the bank was over-extending itself with mortgage lending. That bank was quietly absorbed by Lloyds banking group as Gordon FW Brown struggled to prevent the whole UK banking system following Iceland's banking system down the toilet.

It has taken 6 years to nearly recover.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
Quoting Exodus
In the UK there were signs of the next (as it was in 2007) disaster on the high street. It was possible to obtain a mortgage for more than the face value of the security. You would have had to have seen that before to know what was coming next. 1989 or '90 was the last time I saw that in the UK.

In the US you had 'liar loans', as my cousin put it. She lived in California at the time. I have no idea how visible this sort of lending practice is to the man on the street, but also at the time the US was enjoying the Greenspan stimulus with interest...
Yeah I saw it coming in roughly 2004. In 2001 I bought a nice little chalet on 3 acres. Fair market value was about 105k. I got it for 98k. Lived there for a couple years when my relationship went belly up. She kept the house. In 2004 I saw the signs of "free money for all" (whether you could afford it or not) lending coming and just smiled and watched as property values began to soar way beyond true market value.

I smiled because I still loved my EX and knew she had a gold mine on her hands. From 2006 to mid 2007 I BEGGED her to sell at what was now almost triple the cost. She didn't of course because I was now the "bad guy" and her new boyfriend<<(man on the street?) said I was nuts and just trying to hurt her.....LOL

Of course now it's back to (if not a tad less than) it's original fair market value. Go figure huh?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
Fabers great , and correct , Buy Gold and smile
Marc Faber is having spaghetti for dinner.
Faber and Schiff may seem silly, but they are merely the man on the crows nest yelling "iceberg, right ahead" before the Titanic (US - the unsinkable economy) crashes.[/quote]

Yes, they are silly. Who did not see the 2008 disaster coming? And Schiff is selling his investment fund, so I discount all he says. Weren't we supposed to be in WWIII now?
Fear sells.
Chance favors the prepared
Quoting JohnW
.... Weren't we supposed to be in WWIII now?
Fear sells.
You don't think this Ukraine stuff is the opening skirmish?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
Having watched Grenada/Falkland war, I have more understanding why Ukraine is ignored. It cost England and UK dearly, takes decades to build her economy, and GBP nose dived, and makes G. Soros a billionaire. So is Argentine.
Quoting JohnW
Faber and Schiff may seem silly, but they are merely the man on the crows nest yelling "iceberg, right ahead" before the Titanic (US - the unsinkable economy) crashes.
Yes, they are silly. Who did not see the 2008 disaster coming? And Schiff is selling his investment fund, so I discount all he says. Weren't we supposed to be in WWIII now?
Fear sells.[/quote]




.......Who didn't see it coming?
The Fed, and all those who lost their shirts.
Also a bunch of clown like panelists on investment news highlights who all literally laughed at him when he predicted the time and scope of the crisis.

Schiff makes a lot of sense with his fundamentals.
When someone makes a claim that a new and bigger disaster is coming, does it mean this week/month?
Schiff didn't anticipate the Fed would be so aggressive with its QE, but it has only delayed the inevitable, as mass printing and more debt doesn't work without structural change from consumerism to production which I believe is the main premise of his argument.
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting Ill-b-back
.......Who didn't see it coming?
You missed out Gordon FW Brown:
Budget statement 21st March 2007, "we will never return to the old boom and bust"
The links to previous speeches are strangely non-functional.
Never trust a politician unless you can see both his hands!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
It has occurred to me that the guy who is responsible for managing the government's budgeting and expenditure may not be 'the guy' who is responsible for monitoring the health of the economy and its financial workings. In which case there may not actually be anyone whose job it is to keep an eye on the general workings of the economy. That would explain a lot.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
Quoting Exodus
You missed out Gordon FW Brown:
Budget statement 21st March 2007, "we will never return to the old boom and bust"
The links to previous speeches are strangely non-functional.
Never trust a politician unless you can see both his hands!
"Never again see booms and bust"

Yep, someone said the exact same thing before the Great Depression.
We will only see plateaus, dips, then continual rises they said.

DOH!!!
Come with me if you want to live....
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  • Posted: May 9, 2014 1:10pm
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     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 32  /  Views: 7,187