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  • EURUSD Weekly Outlook March 24-8 2014: Calm Before The Storm?

    From fxempire.com

    FX Traders’ weekly EURUSD fundamental & technical picture, this week’s market drivers that could change it- the bullish, the bearish and likely EURUSD direction. The following is a partial summary of the conclusions from the fxempire.com weekly analysts’ meeting in which we cover outlooks for the major pairs for the coming week and beyond. Summary Technical Outlook: Near term neutral, longer term bullish Fundamental Outlook: Neutral Near Term, Bearish Longer Term Trader Positioning: Reminiscent Of The Last Big EURUSD Pullback Per Two Surveys Conclusions: Some potentially potent drivers, but the big moves ... (full story)

We think it bullish, but might be bearish...:-). Wonderful analysis - too many words that can be replaced with the 2 desired parameters - the guessed speculative direction (up/down) and the percentage of chance (like 60%).

Example of the analysis:

60% chance to go up next week!

And that is it! No need for "tactical" or "strategical" or colorful graphics with 25 lines on them - eventually the price will cross some of those and that means nothing. Sounding mumbo-jumby and using many colorful words doesn't add up to a trading entry.
Just putting out the facts as I see 'em
Sorry, reality not always clear
Also, my crystal ball in the shop for repairs and polishing
Tho quantifying bullish bearish in terms of %age nice idea
I'm not criticizing the analytical skill. I'm just pointing out that too much of a text induce controversy and the reader can't utilize this analysis in straightforward manner.

I would say - if no significant Crimea conflict escalation - 70% chance for green candle next week for cable and euro.
It’s paid to bet against FF sample in the past weeks. If they’ve made a strong shift to long EURUSD, coming week likely to see a pullback
Quoting Yali Lev
It’s paid to bet against FF sample in the past weeks. If they’ve made a strong shift to long EURUSD, coming week likely to see a pullback
Right, there is a world conspiracy to get $200 dollars from 25 retail trading accounts :-).
Quoting michaelpelly
Right, there is a world conspiracy to get $200 dollars from 25 retail trading accounts :-).
haha best coment ever
Liked the double Bollinger band articles
What they mean is they have no idea
The French feeling is the EU above 1.40 stress the Euro Zone economy and the US$ went down too much in the first quarter.

So for the long run is to short an upside betwen 1.3810 to 1.3850
3700-3850 is the range. Outside daily close = possible breakout.
Quoting michaelpelly
Example of the analysis:

60% chance to go up next week!

And that is it! No need for "tactical" or "strategical" or colorful graphics with 25 lines on them - eventually the price will cross some of those and that means nothing. Sounding mumbo-jumby and using many colorful words doesn't add up to a trading entry.
well mate, which is the mechanism, the mental one, that leads you to 60% and not 90%, not short but long?
just asking
Quoting johnel
well mate, which is the mechanism, the mental one, that leads you to 60% and not 90%, not short but long?
just asking
A spoon of internal guts, some pieces of trading experience hunch and a pinch of pure speculation - there you go :-). It is definitely not an exact science - and if someone try to convince you that it is - only because he plotted several nice lines on a drawing - do not believe him :-).
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:14am Mar 23, 2014 7:01am | Edited at 7:14am
Quoting michaelpelly
A spoon of internal guts, some pieces of trading experience hunch and a pinch of pure speculation - there you go :-). It is definitely not an exact science - and if someone try to convince you that it is - only because he plotted several nice lines on a drawing - do not believe him :-).
just like that? without minimal fundamental analysis ?
stop asking about the TA, you already answered.

Don't take it personally but do not buy it
One last question:
you really are on the market and make money with your strategy?
Anyway, I wish you many pips and inspiration
As far as I'm concerned I still draw lines that hope will take me to the percentages that you talked about...
greetings from north of the Danube
Quoting Yuri57
3700-3850 is the range. Outside daily close = possible breakout.
My support is 1.3686. Pivot 1.3825. Resistant 1.3902. See how close it is.
Quoting michaelpelly
I'm not criticizing the analytical skill. I'm just pointing out that too much of a text induce controversy and the reader can't utilize this analysis in straightforward manner.

I would say - if no significant Crimea conflict escalation - 70% chance for green candle next week for cable and euro.
No offense, just saying the picture isn't straight forward, so first we sort out the technical and fundamental picture, and if no clear conclusion (I do offer likely range, then dig deeper or don't attempt to trade a trend that doesn't exist on the daily charts - as the neutral near term momentum on the daily charts suggests. Either switch to range trading strategies, another time frame where the trend is clearer, or another pair or instrument.

btw discuss that in new post out on how to use double bollinger bands here: http://www.fxempire.com/news/special...icator-part-1/

you might find that helpful if you're not well versed in these.
Quoting Cliff Wachtel
btw discuss that in new post out on how to use double bollinger bands here: http://www.fxempire.com/news/special...icator-part-1/

you might find that helpful if you're not well versed in these.
Thanks for the link - I will definitely take a look.

I'm trading big swing ranges with hedges on E/U and G/U - basically a lot of small positions everywhere on both pairs in both directions - can't really say it matters to me where the EUR/USD will go next week. My goal is company profit amplification - some trades can even go for 1-2 yrs, some are only leveraged 1:2.

I'm just always suspicious when something is too obvious as trading opportunity :-).
Quoting michaelpelly
Thanks for the link - I will definitely take a look.

I'm trading big swing ranges with hedges on E/U and G/U - basically a lot of small positions everywhere on both pairs in both directions - can't really say it matters to me where the EUR/USD will go next week. My goal is company profit amplification - some trades can even go for 1-2 yrs, some are only leveraged 1:2.

I'm just always suspicious when something is too obvious as trading opportunity :-).
Smart. Few seem to understand that forex is so often best used for long term trends (though the brokers push for day trading type styles to up their volume & profits) because fx produces some of the most persistent long term trends. Why? Because it usually takes a lot longer to reverse the underlying fundamentals of a country (ok, relative fundamentals of 2 countries since we're talking about pairs) than it is for the underlying fundamentals of a company and its stock to change its fundys. For example, the USD has been losing ground vs. most majors for decades. See http://thesensibleguidetoforex.com/2...versification/ for illustrations. Good luck
Forex is used as a hedge mostly.
Quoting vladputin
Forex is used as a hedge mostly.
I remember I've read that almost 85% of the volume is just hedge operations to secure the investment portfolios.
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  • Posted: Mar 22, 2014 7:33pm
  • Submitted by:
     Cliff Wachtel
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 19  /  Views: 6,771