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  • Citi Exists AUD/NZD Long, Enters AUD/USD Short

    From efxnews.com

    CitiFX Technicals exited its AUD/NZD long position at 1.0581, around cost. The position entered at 1.0579 on March 12, 2014. "Since then, there has been little follow through on the move. The set-up on AUDUSD also makes us less constructive on the AUDNZD view," Citi says as a rational behind this call. Meanwhile, Citi enters a fresh AUD/USD short position at 0.9016 with an initial target of 0.8660-0.8720 and a stop at 0.9150. Citi reasons that the AUD/USD posted a bearish key day yesterday with a good resistance around the 0.9130-0.9145, which includes the 200 day moving average. Citi adds that "it is worth ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Mar 20, 2014 8:57pm Mar 20, 2014 8:57pm
More bullsh#t
  • #2
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  • Mar 20, 2014 9:02pm Mar 20, 2014 9:02pm
Hahahaha...didn't BoA say to short AUD earlier today too? There was no selloff earlier and looks like Asian session is starting off buying Aussie as well(albeit, not a huge rally by any means).

So thanks to Citi, we should all expect to see .9150 on a/u sometime soon to stop them out.
  • #3
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  • Mar 20, 2014 9:15pm Mar 20, 2014 9:15pm
No patience for AUDNZD I see... I will keep my longs. Daily charts looks good for double bottom so far.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #4
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  • Mar 20, 2014 9:22pm Mar 20, 2014 9:22pm
Mean I enter long for A/U
  • #5
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  • Mar 20, 2014 9:23pm Mar 20, 2014 9:23pm
I have the same trade as them
  • #6
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  • Mar 20, 2014 9:24pm Mar 20, 2014 9:24pm
Just thinking about it some more...why is this article coming out now? In order for Citi to have entered at .9016 short a/u...the last time price was that low on a/u was 10-11am NY time this morning. Price has done nothing but go UP UP UP since then. You'd think if a major bank with millions/billions of dollars put a position on...price would go down some. lol

Again, I repeat...trade AGAINST Citi. I full expect a rally over .9100 now, my technicalls called for it. Citi and BoA back me up! haha In fact, we just hit .9065 as I was typing this. lol Happy Trading!
  • #7
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  • Mar 20, 2014 9:25pm Mar 20, 2014 9:25pm
some good advice for newbies or anyone really...NEVER, NEVER, NEVER listen to what the Big Banks on here say they are doing. They are wrong 80% of the time(and that's being generous).
  • #8
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  • Mar 20, 2014 9:48pm Mar 20, 2014 9:48pm
i think trading analysis from citi full of idiot person, thats why they blow some bullshit to disguise their wrong position of loses trade....lmao
simple is better
  • #9
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  • Mar 20, 2014 10:00pm Mar 20, 2014 10:00pm
I'm glad that i checked in. I'm also short Gdp/Aud. Nice to see others quoting the error in the Big Banks. I'm hoping to hit 1.8186 from 1.8251
  • #10
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  • Mar 20, 2014 10:22pm Mar 20, 2014 10:22pm
Quoting PA is King
Hahahaha...didn't BoA say to short AUD earlier today too? There was no selloff earlier and looks like Asian session is starting off buying Aussie as well(albeit, not a huge rally by any means).

So thanks to Citi, we should all expect to see .9150 on a/u sometime soon to stop them out.
Strongly doubt 0.9150, as the daily 200sma is at 0.9140 and will be formidable resistance. Exited my short after yesterday's pinbar and looking to short again around 0.9100. The AUD is ranging nicely at present, at least until Monday when the Chinese Flash PMI could generate lots of volatility.
  • #11
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  • Mar 20, 2014 10:23pm Mar 20, 2014 10:23pm
this quite tricky
  • #12
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  • Mar 20, 2014 10:25pm Mar 20, 2014 10:25pm
The article also states a AUD of 0.76-0.80 long term. This will be unlikely given the improving current account deficit - low 0.80's is probably the limit.
  • #13
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  • Mar 20, 2014 10:27pm Mar 20, 2014 10:27pm
Quoting Deano9999
The article also states a AUD of 0.76-0.80 long term. This will be unlikely given the improving current account deficit - low 0.80's is probably the limit.

Strongly doubt it...upper .80's more likely. RBA stopped their .8500 non-sense talk.

Doing well buying the dips...will be looking to buy again if we get a pullback.
  • #14
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  • Mar 20, 2014 10:39pm Mar 20, 2014 10:39pm
The serenity
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #15
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  • Mar 20, 2014 11:01pm Mar 20, 2014 11:01pm
Quoting PA is King
Strongly doubt it...upper .80's more likely. RBA stopped their .8500 non-sense talk.

Doing well buying the dips...will be looking to buy again if we get a pullback.
ditto
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #16
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  • Mar 20, 2014 11:05pm Mar 20, 2014 11:05pm
Quoting Deano9999
Strongly doubt 0.9150, as the daily 200sma is at 0.9140 and will be formidable resistance. Exited my short after yesterday's pinbar and looking to short again around 0.9100. The AUD is ranging nicely at present, at least until Monday when the Chinese Flash PMI could generate lots of volatility.
Not to menton the weekly down trend line at the same point. Technically, anyone that thinks it is going to clear those two right away is kidding themselves. If some news event pops everything than maybe. Buying up against those two doesn't make a lot of sense.
  • #17
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  • Edited Mar 21, 2014 2:11am Mar 20, 2014 11:10pm | Edited Mar 21, 2014 2:11am
Quoting PA is King
some good advice for newbies or anyone really...NEVER, NEVER, NEVER listen to what the Big Banks on here say they are doing. They are wrong 80% of the time(and that's being generous).
Excellent advice
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #18
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  • Mar 20, 2014 11:20pm Mar 20, 2014 11:20pm
never listen to and broker for any advice
  • #19
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  • Mar 20, 2014 11:47pm Mar 20, 2014 11:47pm
Quoting PoundTrader
never listen to and broker for any advice
to right they just looking to get your money
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #20
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  • Mar 20, 2014 11:51pm Mar 20, 2014 11:51pm
Quoting PA is King
some good advice for newbies or anyone really...NEVER, NEVER, NEVER listen to what the Big Banks on here say they are doing. They are wrong 80% of the time(and that's being generous).
I fully agree. Not only that, but the big banks are corrupt, dirty, rotten stinking, greedy, thieving and deceiving liars!

Oh, they may have gone to the trouble of taking a short position, in order to say they did, all one micro-lot of it! But the lie is that they are banking on the hundreds of millions they place long!

...NEVER, NEVER, NEVER listen to what the Big Banks on here say they are doing, because they are dirty, rotten stinking, greedy, thieving & deceiving, market corrupting liars that do what they can to take your money away from you and put it into their pockets.
  • #21
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  • Mar 21, 2014 12:22am Mar 21, 2014 12:22am
I agree with them. Short at 0.9060. SL 0.9460. TP 0.88. Will short again at 0.9240. This is the first time I reveal my strategy.
  • #22
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  • Mar 21, 2014 2:51am Mar 21, 2014 2:51am
Quoting frx_trader
I agree with them. Short at 0.9060. SL 0.9460. TP 0.88. Will short again at 0.9240. This is the first time I reveal my strategy.
SL 0.9460 = cool target. Thanks.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #23
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  • Mar 21, 2014 3:04am Mar 21, 2014 3:04am
Quoting frx_trader
I agree with them. Short at 0.9060. SL 0.9460. TP 0.88. Will short again at 0.9240. This is the first time I reveal my strategy.
thank god..u play with 0.05 lots ?
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #24
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  • Mar 21, 2014 3:18am Mar 21, 2014 3:18am
  •  Trader#8DD3
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
frx trader - you're risking 400 pips loss to make 260 pips profit - you won't last long in this game with those parameters!!
  • #25
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  • Mar 21, 2014 4:32am Mar 21, 2014 4:32am
Let us see if the mentioned SL at 9150 will be hit today or next week
Such "news" are being published just for misleading small traders and taking them out.
  • #26
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  • Mar 21, 2014 4:32am Mar 21, 2014 4:32am
Quoting Guest
frx trader - you're risking 400 pips loss to make 260 pips profit - you won't last long in this game with those parameters!!
Ask him how his last. A/U short trades worked out.


On a side note, Aussie still climbing...even though e/u and g/u show flat to down(usd strength)....Thanks for the great advice Citi and BoA!
  • #27
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  • Mar 21, 2014 4:40am Mar 21, 2014 4:40am
City,of course, went short first, then told everybody what they did , (It was only the truth), in the hopes that others would follow suit and drive them into profit.

Were they still acquiring those shorts, You'd better believe it would be in secret, lest others find out, and drive the price down before they acquire it at the higher, more profitable price.

I call it immoral honesty.
  • #28
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  • Mar 21, 2014 5:15am Mar 21, 2014 5:15am
Quoting PA is King
some good advice for newbies or anyone really...NEVER, NEVER, NEVER listen to what the Big Banks on here say they are doing. They are wrong 80% of the time(and that's being generous).
They are not wrong, but just manipulate market with this kind of bullshit. Thanks to this article I'm pretty sure that my long position at 0.9019 and TP 0.9124 will hit that level Anyway SL is now situated at 0.9052 so 1,26 reward to risk is secured.
  • #29
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  • Mar 21, 2014 5:23am Mar 21, 2014 5:23am
wat? going short, this thing is running
  • #30
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  • Mar 21, 2014 5:36am Mar 21, 2014 5:36am
Quoting PA is King
Ask him how his last. A/U short trades worked out.


On a side note, Aussie still climbing...even though e/u and g/u show flat to down(usd strength)....Thanks for the great advice Citi and BoA!
The Risk I am willing to take. Will you?
  • #31
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  • Mar 21, 2014 5:45am Mar 21, 2014 5:45am
Quoting Guest
frx trader - you're risking 400 pips loss to make 260 pips profit - you won't last long in this game with those parameters!!

Seems, I have to give you some calculation. But that's my trade. Win, Lose or Draw.

Let say 400 pips up with .3333 probability, and 260 pips with .6667 probability.

Expected Net Lose : 400/3 = 133.33 pips.
Expected Net Win : 260 *2/3 = 173.33 pips

Expected Net win = 40 pips. But I can lose 400 pips with 1/3 probaility and take 260 pips with 2/3 probability. Your choice.
  • #32
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  • Mar 21, 2014 5:53am Mar 21, 2014 5:53am
I had a trade that I held for 3 months and got profit in the end because it never hit my SL that I set pretty high.
  • #33
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  • Mar 21, 2014 6:57am Mar 21, 2014 6:57am
Careful people, this 4hr bar looks suspiciously look a doji, and if so I may get my system re-entry signal to short, stop above 0.9150. target 0.8990. The closer it is to 0.9140 the better the R:R,
  • #34
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  • Edited 9:39am Mar 21, 2014 7:16am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting Deano9999
Careful people, this 4hr bar looks suspiciously look a doji, and if so I may get my system re-entry signal to short, stop above 0.9150. target 0.8990. The closer it is to 0.9140 the better the R:R,

Don't get me wrong, I clearly see some resistance levels at .9100 and .9130 areas. But looking at the daily chart(which you use)...you can't deny the fact that price has been trending up since Jan. 24th. Also, it's a fact price hasn't Closed below .8900 on the daily chart since Feb. 3rd! 4hr chart has been trending up, the 1hr chart is sideways to up(higher lows, flat highs around .9100-30). For me, in order to reduce risk and have a higher probability of a winning trade...I trade WITH the current trends which is up. So until .8900 is broken and closed below on the Daily chart...I'll be buying the dips.
  • #35
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  • Mar 21, 2014 7:18am Mar 21, 2014 7:18am
Quoting frx_trader
I had a trade that I held for 3 months and got profit in the end because it never hit my SL that I set pretty high.
That's where you and I differ...no way can I waste 3 months just to "get into profit." I'm typically in profit 3 days a week. Good luck on your new a/u short though.

I'm actually hoping it does sell off some, I need a dip to buy. But it's already up to
.9090 that didn't take long for the Fed/Yellen affect to wear off.

just a side note: e/u and g/u are ready to start heading back up too in case you like trading those pairs. But those are more countertrend trades...wouldn't expect huge profits.
  • #36
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  • Mar 21, 2014 7:46am Mar 21, 2014 7:46am
On the daily AUD/USD, is the inverted head and shoulders still in play? Isn't that one of the reasons it keeps coming up? Technically speaking, it is possible to get up to 0.9250...eventually.
  • #37
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  • Mar 21, 2014 7:57am Mar 21, 2014 7:57am
It has definitely been bullish since 21 Jan 2014 tbh. As they say "if it's going up it's going up"
  • #38
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  • Edited 1:08pm Mar 21, 2014 12:56pm | Edited 1:08pm
How are those aussie shorts working out for you bears? lol I kid I kid

A/U looks determined to close at/above .9100 today. 4 out of 5 daily candles this week are bullish...3 out of 5 last week...4 out of 5 the week before that. I really don't know why people are trying to sell right now when it's obviously being bid up on every dip.

But all kidding aside, nothing goes up or down forever...it will eventually selloff. But how high will it go first? Or when will that selloff happen? I have no crystal ball or clue and that's exactly why I don't fight trends(lost too much money in my early trading days trying to pick tops/bottoms of trend).

Have a good weekend all and many pips to you next week!
  • #39
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  • Mar 21, 2014 2:29pm Mar 21, 2014 2:29pm
battle aud and nzd with any major, i consent for this currency this year. but i think aud may be better
  • #40
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  • Mar 21, 2014 2:29pm Mar 21, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting PA is King
That's where you and I differ...no way can I waste 3 months just to "get into profit." I'm typically in profit 3 days a week. Good luck on your new a/u short though.

I'm actually hoping it does sell off some, I need a dip to buy. But it's already up to
.9090 that didn't take long for the Fed/Yellen affect to wear off.

just a side note: e/u and g/u are ready to start heading back up too in case you like trading those pairs. But those are more countertrend trades...wouldn't expect huge profits.
I don't always look at my monitor. I think you sleep already. Today I only lose some 30 pips. But you cannot rule out .89 yet. And although it reached .91 but couldn't hold on.

.91 is finished. Monday it will try .89.
  • #41
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  • Mar 21, 2014 2:37pm Mar 21, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting frx_trader
I don't always look at my monitor. I think you sleep already. Today I only lose some 30 pips. But you cannot rule out .89 yet. And although it reached .91 but cannot hold on.

.91 is finished. Monday it will try .89.

.8900 on Monday? Almost a 200pip drop based on what? LMAO. You're either joking or talking about some Monday in April or May right?

I said either it's clear that .9100-30 is a resistance area. No surprise there.
  • #42
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  • Mar 21, 2014 2:42pm Mar 21, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting PA is King
.8900 on Monday? Almost a 200pip drop based on what? LMAO. You're either joking or talking about some Monday in April or May right?

I said either it's clear that .9100-30 is a resistance area. No surprise there.
With one of the best CB, Yellen, this year belongs to USD. Oh, and Ukraine crisis helps somewhat. Now , one party has been hurt, it's hard to make up.
  • #43
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  • Mar 21, 2014 2:53pm Mar 21, 2014 2:53pm
What are you seeing as a high impact news event for that to happen?


Quoting frx_trader
I don't always look at my monitor. I think you sleep already. Today I only lose some 30 pips. But you cannot rule out .89 yet. And although it reached .91 but couldn't hold on.

.91 is finished. Monday it will try .89.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #44
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  • Mar 21, 2014 3:11pm Mar 21, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting Spreadbetter
What are you seeing as a high impact news event for that to happen?
Hi, SB. I am not a daily trader. Whatever news it just moves 50 pips and break one or two resistants. Fine. but I am a range trader.
  • #45
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  • Mar 21, 2014 5:05pm Mar 21, 2014 5:05pm
Well, it looks like yet again, short means long and long means short
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #46
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  • Mar 21, 2014 5:23pm Mar 21, 2014 5:23pm
This is from DailyFX Plus today:

The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 2.03 as 67% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 2.56; 72% of open positions were long. Long positions are 3.3% lower than yesterday and 8.5% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 22.3% higher than yesterday and 17.6% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 3.9% higher than yesterday and 10.1% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

In the words of Zoidberg, I'm confused Fry...
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #47
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  • Mar 21, 2014 5:27pm Mar 21, 2014 5:27pm
Quoting PA is King
.8900 on Monday? Almost a 200pip drop based on what? LMAO. You're either joking or talking about some Monday in April or May right?

I said either it's clear that .9100-30 is a resistance area. No surprise there.
Sorry, I mean .89xx will appear someday next week. Trade well. Meanwhile, I have to sharpen my trading skills. This week is roller coaster. In the end of the day, make some good profit.

Have been trading indices lately. The movement is better and faster. The direction is clearer.
  • #48
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  • Edited 6:03pm Mar 21, 2014 5:38pm | Edited 6:03pm
Quoting AussieForexM
This is from DailyFX Plus today:

The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 2.03 as 67% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 2.56; 72% of open positions were long. Long positions are 3.3% lower than yesterday and 8.5% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 22.3% higher than yesterday and 17.6% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 3.9% higher than yesterday and 10.1% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long...
It's easy. The ratio was 2.56. And Now 2.03.

Some of long traders exit long either taking profit or cut loss.

So now long traders are 3.3% lower.

Short position is 22.3 higher. Means, traders hold to their shorts or adding their shorts. These can be hold for more profit or hold in loss.

BTW, it's a contrarian indicator. It means, short lots should be reduced or not to be added, since the ratio is 2.03 lower than 2.56 yesterday for long.
  • #49
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  • Mar 21, 2014 7:21pm Mar 21, 2014 7:21pm
Quoting frx_trader
It's easy. The ratio was 2.56. And Now 2.03.

Some of long traders exit long either taking profit or cut loss.

So now long traders are 3.3% lower.

Short position is 22.3 higher. Means, traders hold to their shorts or adding their shorts. These can be hold for more profit or hold in loss.

BTW, it's a contrarian indicator. It means, short lots should be reduced or not to be added, since the ratio is 2.03 lower than 2.56 yesterday for long.
Thanks
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  • #50
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  • Mar 22, 2014 6:32pm Mar 22, 2014 6:32pm
Quoting frx_trader
It's easy. The ratio was 2.56. And Now 2.03.

...

BTW, it's a contrarian indicator. It means, short lots should be reduced or not to be added, since the ratio is 2.03 lower than 2.56 yesterday for long.

Same as, Buy the dips!
  • #51
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  • Mar 22, 2014 10:56pm Mar 22, 2014 10:56pm
Quoting PA is King
Same as, Buy the dips!
The SSI is dynamic, it doesn't stay the same. We have different view. I respect that.
  • #52
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  • Mar 24, 2014 3:29pm Mar 24, 2014 3:29pm
And there goes yet another efxnews SL
Come with me if you want to live....
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  • Posted: Mar 20, 2014 8:34pm
  • Submitted by:
     eFx Newz
    Category: Technical Analysis
    Comments: 52  /  Views: 12,087