Prepare for a Breakdown | Forex Factory

  • Prepare for a Breakdown

    From finances.com

    Tension in Ukraine, have pushed the USDJPY to the brink of a breakdown, and traders should be at the ready to pull the trigger on a close below support. This weekend will go a long way in expressing whether the USDJPY will hold, and this should have a spillover effect to the rest of the capital markets. This weekend’s referendum if voted yes, combined with a technical breakdown could be very negative for the USDJPY . The Japanese yen is the strongest currency against the dollar this week, gaining about 1.6%. The climb in the yen is a function of risk aversion and has not gone lost on Asian equity bourses. The ... (full story)

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traider
Mar 15, 2014 2:49pm
Permalink
Quoting highway
Hmmm.... What is Russia exporting?
To whom?
Dare to boycot Russian products?
Who is earning from the Russians?
Russia gets it's vital products cheaply from China and India. The rest of luxury goods from Europe.
The only economy that could be screwed is the gambling industry - the stock market
When China closed it's door, they survived, and they did not have gas nor oil --- but Russia has both.
The gambling industry is only place being used to undermine Russia; better do away with it.
Malaysia was attacked when it went against the masters...
The Far East is the bedrock on which global liquidity gains momentum. If you haven't sussed this out, you should not be trading.
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traider
Mar 16, 2014 1:00am
Permalink
Quoting highway
Shocks me a bit what you wrote coming from New Zealand. I cannot get your full meaning. Mind clearing it a bit?

By the way, this Malaysia happening was in the 80's.
China was not really opened yet. Only a handful of people would have courage to predict this region being a bedrock as you say. China was absolute communist and Vietnam and Cambodia were not totally finished with war. If you don't mind how old were you then?
China opened up in the '70's when Nixon and Mao shook hands and agreed to transform China into the FDI lovechild it is. China has modelled it's alignment with capital using the Japanese model which most of the Far East is emulating. I read up a fair bit on global developments which has given me a good handle on how to view the market when everyone else is crying end of the world. Whilst I trade pure technicals, I use my fundamental approach to go quietly about my business whilst others are running around in a frenzy. This was the approach I took during Cyprus and Greece.

There are many decades of pure gold to be made trading if you get your technicals tight.

I was in high school in the '80's (19 in 89).
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traider
Mar 16, 2014 4:06am
Permalink
Errr. Have you never heard of learning. I was 12, grew up and learnt along the way. Why are you people so obviously dim when it comes to these straightforward points

Anyways, I can't be bothered whether you agree or not. Thats how I approach fundamentals. If you find another perspective beneficial, get on with it!!
Reply
highway
Mar 15, 2014 12:19pm
Permalink
Quoting mitch77
It will be a yes vote and Russia's economy will be even more screwed than it is now.
Hmmm.... What is Russia exporting?
To whom?
Dare to boycot Russian products?
Who is earning from the Russians?
Russia gets it's vital products cheaply from China and India. The rest of luxury goods from Europe.
The only economy that could be screwed is the gambling industry - the stock market
When China closed it's door, they survived, and they did not have gas nor oil --- but Russia has both.
The gambling industry is only place being used to undermine Russia; better do away with it.
Malaysia was attacked when it went against the masters from the west.
From tin ore market dispute..
Malaysia halted the gambling and controlled the currency from being traded. Malaysia made it through and become more independent. Became less like a slave. After a while, the ex gambling rulers wanted to come back - but economic powers from the far east had diluted the western power.
Reply
highway
Mar 16, 2014 3:06am — Edited
Permalink
Quoting traider
China opened up in the '70's when Nixon and Mao shook hands and agreed to transform China into the FDI lovechild it is. China has modelled it's alignment with capital using the Japanese model which most of the Far East is emulating. I read up a fair bit on global developments which has given me a good handle on how to view the market when everyone else is crying end of the world. Whilst I trade pure technicals, I use my fundamental approach to go quietly about my business whilst others are running around in a frenzy. This was the approach I took...
So, you were about 12 years old when you had such great insight about the east in the 80's while western investors were scrambling out of Asia then?
Great minds!! God bless NZ.
Well, I ain't that smart. I passed my Victorian HSC in 1976 and went to see the whole world. Two years in NWFP, Khyber Pass and saw live the destruction of Kabul from Soviets backed weapons ( regime )
I later left to MASHAD and Tehran and etc before finishing at University of Lausanne. Did not have your great mind to invest in Asia. I made only a small fortune in Switzerland. I did not make it to 9 digits like you sounded.
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highway
Mar 16, 2014 10:01am — Edited
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The investors I met so far don't really care about liquidity, momentum shifting etc. All of them are millionaires.
Here they invest conservatively.
Priority is safety and risk. Until last year investor's capital at Cantonal banks and PTT was guaranteed 100% by SNB
Low interest but safe bonds. They don't buy and sell just because risk or liquidity switch out and in somewhere.
We own stable stocks like Novartis, Holcin etc.
Every year we get good dividends.
One can pull out a chart and see how stable swiss stocks performed for the past 40 years. Dividends gave a good earning and value of stocks had only increased. Had been like gold but one got a dividend every year.
Say one bought gold with annual dividend at USD 440 an ounce and kept it. Whether it crash or not at USD 2000 an ounce now the dividend has more than covered it. Any good crash is good time to buy more.
Trading don't need only to be chasing after market momentum or liquidity every week or everyday.
I can survive even if the stock or FX market ceased to exist.
Reply
wildbill2u
Mar 16, 2014 4:26pm
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Haven't the Japanese had their own share of bad economic data lately? Aren't they still struggling with transparency over the nuclear plant explosion? Doesn't their economy resting on exports more than most economies and won't a expensive Yen hamper exports, resulting in economic problems.

I'm curious as to why the market under risk aversion is preferring the Yen as a safer currency than all the majors including GBP, USD, EUR, and even the traditional safe haven, the Swissy.

I can see it against the AUD and NZD and others as they have traditionally lost favor during crises, right?

I know I'm stupid so please explain it in clearly lucid terms that are easy to understand.
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NathanAhern
Mar 16, 2014 5:35pm
Permalink
Quoting wildbill2u

I'm curious as to why the market under risk aversion is preferring the Yen as a safer currency than all the majors including GBP, USD, EUR, and even the traditional safe haven, the Swissy.

I can see it against the AUD and NZD and others as they have traditionally lost favor during crises, right?

I know I'm stupid so please explain it in clearly lucid terms that are easy to understand.

Perhaps because GBP, EUR, and CHF are fully priced. The only "cheap" currencies are USD and JPY

But not USD because there are concerns that the phasing out of QE might be paused.
Reply
PA is King
Mar 14, 2014 4:03pm
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Aussie bears have to be disappointed with it still above .9000. On the other hand, bulls have to be disappointed it didn't continue above .9100. Have a good weekend all!
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mitch77
Mar 15, 2014 7:43am
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It will be a yes vote and Russia's economy will be even more screwed than it is now.
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Trader#FF85
Mar 15, 2014 1:42am
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Can someone please elaborate why the USD/JPY will go down if the vote is yes.
I am long at 102 and jumped in again at 101.38, so need some understanding here on the dynamics of this
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Trader#771A
Mar 17, 2014 12:34am
Permalink
The Crimea situation has already been priced into the market, it's no longer a factor. Only new, unexpected developments will affect prices now.
Reply

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