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  • UK new business rises at survey record pace during October

    From markiteconomics.com

    The UK service sector maintained its recent run of strong growth during October, with activity expanding at the fastest pace since May 1997 as levels of incoming new business rose at a survey record rate. Capacity was subsequently tested, with backlogs increasing at a sharp pace. Companies responded by adding to their payrolls, and the rate of growth was the best seen in nearly sixteen-and-a-half years. The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index reached a level of 62.5 in October. That was an improvement on September’s 60.3 and represented the sharpest rise in activity signalled by the survey since ... (full story)

Some really shameless front-running
Wooooh....
+ Yesterday Construction PMI = kaboommm
The overrun front runner has created hesitation by the small traders to enter the market after the official release of the data.

Quoting umaga
Some really shameless front-running
So the UK looks likeley to be leading the recovery in Europe, and maybe the rest of the world?
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
just follow the market
So the gbp jumps 80 pips ... it will now retrace 65 a least
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
At least it triggered my short gbp/jpy!
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
Quoting timos
+ Yesterday Construction PMI = kaboommm
Kacoommm for what range and duration? That is the problem with this approach of reading entrails - the market is not linear therefore you have no equations that work in the sense you think and have expressed here. In other words it is akin to reading the entrails of dead animals no matter how hard we think it should be otherwise What a laugh at a scandal
Quoting Kok Teong
The overrun front runner has created hesitation by the small traders to enter the market after the official release of the data.
True, but i'm definately buying on a 30-ish pip retracement, just below the daily r2
growth due to debt
Quoting Loadedgun
Kacoommm for what range and duration? That is the problem with this approach of reading entrails - the market is not linear therefore you have no equations that work in the sense you think and have expressed here. In other words it is akin to reading the entrails of dead animals no matter how hard we think it should be otherwise What a laugh at a scandal
kaboommm the upside.
Yesterday was postive,but big guys were waiting & loading for today news too,they don't like to risk money
Take care.
Ho ho.. Deja vu.. Pound creating new high.. After that Euro Aussie and kiwi is catching up
Quoting timos
kaboommm the upside.
Yesterday was postive,but big guys were waiting & loading for today news too,they don't like to risk money
Take care.
I know you are thinking upside and naturally yes after a long ride down such as we have had there will be corrective play. But is the upside the prevailing trend? If not is it possible we are in a range at this point? In a range do not forget your indicators will give you large signals for small moves since their registers measure relative momentum in a range so market type is key to discerning what kind of volatility to expect. Look I am not taking a side this way or that way but merely being the devils advocate here and pointing out why what you call fundamental analysis is no better than voodoo or reading the entrails of dead animals. But of course I am sure you already know that and agree with me that more care is needed. I would say lets wait until tomorrow may be to really sus out what price is doing - even for intraday trading Nice One!
Quoting Loadedgun
I know you are thinking upside and naturally yes after a long ride down such as we have had there will be corrective play. But is the upside the prevailing trend? If not is it possible we are in a range at this point? In a range do not forget your indicators will give you large signals for small moves since their registers measure relative momentum in a range so market type is key to discerning what kind of volatility to expect. Look I am not taking a side this way or that way but merely being the devils advocate here and pointing out why what you...
Bro i don't use a singe indicator.And no,the today upmove was not random,either because offundamentals .Please open monthly chart and see last months,do you think the trend is going to change that easy?
May the pips be with you
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.250.187
Hi Loaded gun , can you please advise your technical graph that where EUR is going ?
Market will go its own direction...............just a boom for now
Quoting makrazeeb
Market will go its own direction...............just a boom for now
No. It was indicating GBP up from yesterday, if you look closely the chart. I bought GBP yesterday. Sometimes, with the same data(ex, Cash rate), it moves up or down. Why ? Fundamental just follows technical, I think.
If ever GBP goes down in coming days, it will be GBPJYP pair. Why...?
People need to understand that in economics everything acts with a lag and much that we have now are dated or historical data (reported currently). However, professional interpretation is tricky because of things like the lags we have in real economies (which models like the multiplier exemplify). So there are no linear equations that describe effects that in interaction become completely unpredictable. That is the basis of chaos theory - you cannot project current results into the future in any meaningful way so fundamental analyses makes no sense in assessing trades and in fact it is empirically established that this is indeed true and that most pros do not rely on so called fundamentals "in its strict sense" to trade.

As a result we submit that the study of price and market dynamics is best conducted on the precepts suggested by micro economics. I wonder why that is so tough to penetrate the minds of people. You can call such analysis "fundamental analysis" too if you like (if nothing else just to satisfy any psychological need to say you are engaged in intelligent analysis). But this misapplication (and indeed based on ignorance or misunderstanding of economics) is devastatingly sad. what a laugh at a scandal
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.242.147
So if you're not taking a side is that your prediction that price might go up or price might go down? We might be in a range?

Quoting Loadedgun
I know you are thinking upside and naturally yes after a long ride down such as we have had there will be corrective play. But is the upside the prevailing trend? If not is it possible we are in a range at this point? In a range do not forget your indicators will give you large signals for small moves since their registers measure relative momentum in a range so market type is key to discerning what kind of volatility to expect. Look I am not taking a side this way or that way but merely being the devils advocate here and pointing out why what you...
Quoting timos
Bro i don't use a singe indicator.And no,the today upmove was not random,either because offundamentals .Please open monthly chart and see last months,do you think the trend is going to change that easy?
May the pips be with you
That is fine I just checked my vectors for that pair (per my Non Linear Regression model of the market) as I really do not trade the pair and sure you are ok for any upside limited to or less than 1.62560 in the very short-term and sure I agree with you that the long-term analysis is positively upside per my regressor so sure you are cool based on my cursory look and I guess you know what you are doing if you are sophisticated enough to read the monthly chart and trade by it. Cheers Nice One!
Quoting Loadedgun
That is fine I just checked my vectors for that pair (per my Non Linear Regression model of the market) as I really do not trade the pair and sure you are ok for any upside limited to or less than 1.62560 and sure I agree with you that the long-term analysis is positively upside per my regressor so sure you are cool based on my cursory look and I guess you know what you are doing if you are sophisticated enough to read the monthly chart and trade by it. Cheers Nice One!
Thanks."Dobule -triple wicks" are my favourite candles Especially in weekly,monthly candles in line with the trend.
Take care and make some pips
Gawd help us, is he typing reams of shite again to confuse new traders whilst trying to make himself appear 'dead clever like'? Someone put him out of his misery please, otherwise we're in for another day of his chaotic trolling all over the news section.

Quoting Guest
So if you're not taking a side is that your prediction that price might go up or price might go down? We might be in a range?
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.242.147
Could you perhaps simplify that into a tweet length answer?


Quoting Loadedgun
People need to understand that in economics everything acts with a lag and much that we have now are dated or historical data (reported currently). However, professional interpretation is tricky because of things like the lags we have in real economies (which models like the multiplier exemplify). So there are no linear equations that describe effects that in interaction become completely unpredictable. That is the basis of chaos theory - you cannot project current results into the future in any meaningful way so fundamental analyses makes no sense...
For new traders, still seduced into thinking technical analysis 'works', take a look at cable, the currency pair breaks to the upside based on a high impact news event. It really is that simple.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting Spreadbetter
For new traders, still seduced into thinking technical analysis 'works', take a look at cable, the currency pair breaks to the upside based on a high impact news event. It really is that simple.
Totally agree, only question is how far? Its rallied 90 pips which is almost a day's ATR and sits neatly on the daily 20ema. The EURGBP cross is now very oversold on the 4hr, so with the EUR not going anywhere fast the GBP will probably settle around here for a few bars. After that watch the USD.
Now this is how we would look at it by chaos (I do not trade technicals since it is just too imprecise for me - but respect those who do while completely in disagreement with those who do fundamentals trading based on some of what I have posted above). But the first thing you want to do before taking a position in any pair is really simple and that is to check the volatility structure and the simplest way to do that is by checking for market type in the range you are trading.

Now you must find a way to do that on your own and it is not in my experience an easy assessment to make. BUT PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT MARKET TYPE IN THE RANGE YOU WISH TO TRADE IS A VERY IMPORTANT ASSESSMENT TO MAKE BEFORE COMMITTING TO THE MARKET. Now that is a fairly straightforward analysis to make by chaos but then again requires knowledge and this is not the place.

In addition, I am not trading this pair and would be cautious to make any comments that might lead others to assume things I have not committed time to assessing. Hope that helps Nice One!


Quoting Guest
So if you're not taking a side is that your prediction that price might go up or price might go down? We might be in a range?
Quoting pt49
So the gbp jumps 80 pips ... it will now retrace 65 a least
GBP/AUD has retraced. I think there's an uptrend in play here - albeit, a weak one.
Quoting Guest
Hi Loaded gun , can you please advise your technical graph that where EUR is going ?
Well the Euro looks bearish (GIVEN THE DROP OVER LAST WEEK) - but I am uncommitted at this point and would like to wait till tomorrow or so to come up with a clearer picture. My sense is that we are still in some consolidation at this stage and clearly one needs time to review (in my case for key time frames to have their vectors updated enough for a reading in the range I trade). I hope that helps Nice One!
Quoting Loadedgun
Well the Euro looks bearish (GIVEN THE DROP OVER LAST WEEK) - but I am uncommitted at this point and would like to wait till tomorrow or so to come up with a clearer picture. My sense is that we are still in some consolidation at this stage and clearly one needs time to review (in my case for key time frames to have their vectors updated enough for a reading in the range I trade). I hope that helps Nice One!

Which TF you are talking about? I saw change on D1(50) for bearish vector.
You agree with me, then you quote revisionist, selective, curve fitting tech analysis B.S.? I'm almost tempted to give you a vouch for taking the piss


Quoting Deano9999
Totally agree, only question is how far? Its rallied 90 pips which is almost a day's ATR and sits neatly on the daily 20ema. The EURGBP cross is now very oversold on the 4hr, so with the EUR not going anywhere fast the GBP will probably settle around here for a few bars. After that watch the USD.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Hope you guys are adding to cable shorts ready to land feet first on 1.57
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting Kuba
Which TF you are talking about? I saw change on D1(50) for bearish vector.
Sure Kuba that is correct using a 3rd power regressor but at the same time (and by my theory) the H4 vector is pointing up and is displaying a quadratic vector at this stage with midline or sentiment line graphing end behaviors that (crudely) reflect plus infinity at both ends. Therefore I would suggest that by that reading (given phase inconsistencies between the intraday cycle and the medium-term cycle) some delay in the downside intraday might reflect and that some upside might take place (per H4 vector geometry) before we see the D1 projections kick in.

So one issue therefore is timing the context of market equations per time frame and not ignoring that subsequent updates depend on current data streams. Once you can manage that and not assume that an equation is stable for your projection - then fine. But I hope that is some help or at least shares some clear ideas. cheers. Nice One!
Kuba - the study of sine waves is indispensable to reading vector configurations and their meaning in projected or extrapolated time. Do not forget that in fact what all markets do is really simple and we merely are trying to process vast data on bids and offers - buying and selling on a recursive basis. Therefore, these market impulses registering on our screens are simply waves and waves of orders of a basic (fractal) structure and therefore can be modeled after sine waves.

This would be an improvement on the thinking of Elliot Waves and the rest who tried to analyse wave dynamics in terms of statics. We can ignore them now completely and employ the dictates of modern physics in the sense I have just conveyed. Therefore in reading your vector configs consider the market is made up of orders depicted by sine waves of different wavelengths and that we have constructive and destructive interference going on.

This means you can engage in additive and subtractive assessments across different time frames and you can also read flat markets for instance as situations involving wave cancellation. Now these are my theories no doubt but if as a mathematician you consider what I am saying and are somehow able to implement it you will find clearly how imprecise and why so traditional TA is and as a result you can be dismissive of it all including the vaunted Elliot Waves which while a great study in its time is rudimentary to say least in describing the market. As for FA you know my views are that it is akin to reading the future by the entrails of dead animals.

Cheers and good luck
Quoting Loadedgun
Sure Kuba that is correct using a 3rd power regressor but at the same time (and by my theory) the H4 vector is pointing up and is displaying a quadratic vector at this stage with midline or sentiment line graphing end behaviors that (crudely) reflect plus infinity at both ends. Therefore I would suggest that by that reading (given phase inconsistencies in the intraday cycle and the medium term cycle) some delay in the downside intraday and that some upside might be take place (per H4 vector geometry) before we see the D1 projections kick in.

So...


But the W1 and MN are still set for up move. So at the moment I am wondering how far can we go on D1 and what is more we touched already the lower SD band.

Thanks
Quoting Kuba
But the W1 and MN are still set for up move. So at the moment I am wondering how far can we go on D1 and what is more we touched already the lower SD band.

Thanks
Well the geometry of the time frame vector you are looking at is defined by some rather complex 3rd power function that appears to be still evolving if you understand what I have said in my second post to you. Therefore try to work out the math on the basis of my second post to you concerning waves and on my logic and see if it helps. Alternatively and preferably allow (wait for) the D1 function to evolve into a clearer function. Note that volatility on a relative scale is mighty low and therefore market is flat given wave cancellations - it is for you to investigate this based on the physics and math of it. However, simply waiting for the current function to become clearer is also good - the market is not running away. Nice One!

BTW: Do not use the regressor like you would a technical tool you must read it as a series of market equations (per time frame) that are constantly subject to updates which updates rarefy the overall class of equation. Important to master polynomials and their graphs.
Well, as we can see, the excess and totally unnecessary Verbal dribble that is associated with the chaotic trading method along with their conflicting and contradicting "constructive and destructive elements" lol..., has the poor deluded chaotic traders totally confused as to Cables next move.
Thus leaving them helpless and hapless on the market sidelines waiting for their mathematical stars to align.

Simple technical analysis and market segmentation on the other hand brings 1.5705 ever so clearly into view as the next major target
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting Ill-b-back
Well, as we can see, the excess and totally unnecessary Verbal dribble that is associated with the chaotic trading method along with their conflicting and contradicting \"constructive and destructive elements\" lol..., has the poor deluded chaotic traders totally confused as Cables next move.
Thus leaving them helpless and hapless on the market sidelines waiting for their mathematical stars to align.

Simple technical analysis and market segmentation on the other hand brings 1.5705 ever so clearly into view as the next major target
So eloquent!!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
Quoting realjumper
So eloquent!!!!
Cheers, and nice(r) one lol...

Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting Loadedgun
Well the geometry of the time frame vector you are looking at is defined by some rather complex 3rd power function that appears to be still evolving if you understand what I have said in my second post to you. Therefore try to work out the math on the basis of my second post to you concerning waves and on my logic and see if it helps. Alternatively and preferably allow (wait for) the D1 function to evolve into a clearer function. Note that volatility on a relative scale is mighty low and therefore market is flat given wave cancellations - it is...
I ll take into account what you wrote. Thanks
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.4.86
Quoting Ill-b-back
Cheers, and nice(r) one lol...

sorry they make sense but you need to understand what they are doing and talking about. It is really very simple. Thank you
Quoting Kuba
I ll take into account what you wrote. Thanks
Sure Nice One!
Quoting Guest
Hi Loaded gun , can you please advise your technical graph that where EUR is going ?
Sure missed this earlier but replied to a similar post and hope that was some help. Cheers Nice One!
From my opinion GBP/USD finished major bearish correcrive phase at price 1.5900 and started bullish continuation.We got decreasing in volume of previous down legs and also our FE 100 % held which good confirmation that pound will be stronger.The next upper statio may be previous high level at price 1.6250.Selling this pair looks very risky and i advise you yo watch for buying opportunities...

Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
Quoting Petar_Serbia
From my opinion GBP/USD finished major bearish correcrive phase at price 1.5900 and started bullish continuation.We got decreasing in volume of previous down legs and also our FE 100 % held which good confirmation that pound will be stronger.The next upper statio may be previous high level at price 1.6250.Selling this pair looks very risky and i advise you yo watch for buying opportunities...

Best Regards,
Petar
Nice one!

BTW: Not trading this pair and not assessed it beyond the cursory look by chaos but thumbs up for this chap because he serves all with a justified opinion which can be verified by others using the tools he has indicated and that to my mind deserves a salutation of the kind given. a thinking trader is welcome any day especially one avoiding the reading of entrails.
I'm a relative newbie and although it took a while to suss out all you 'regulars', I now sit back & larffff. Though I've studied law & know what to ignore and what to take seriously. BUT this lot is dangerous stuff for newbies who (like I was not so long ago) confused & bewildered !!!!
wow this pdf become the most commented in 24h
what so interesting in the pdf ?

ignorance is a bless really...no pusing2 translate and understand it.
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
Quoting Guest
Could you perhaps simplify that into a tweet length answer?
agreee. hahahahah
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
But I do not do twits
Quoting Guest
sorry they make sense but you need to understand what they are doing and talking about. It is really very simple. Thank you
missed this earlier Nice One!
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