'Sorry Is The Hardest Word': We Got It Wrong On EUR But...- Deutsche Bank | Forex Factory

'Sorry Is The Hardest Word': We Got It Wrong On EUR But...- Deutsche Bank | Forex Factory

'Sorry Is The Hardest Word': We Got It Wrong On EUR But...- Deutsche Bank

From efxnews.com

In an apologetic note to clients today, Deutsche Bank admitted that they got it wrong on the EUR for most of this year with their 1.25 (revised from 1.20) year-end forecast for the single currency against the US dollar. Here is how Bilal Hafeez, global head of FX strategy at DB put it: "How to say ‘mea culpa’: I'm beginning to feel like Mervyn King when he was Governor of the Bank of England constantly having to write letters to the Chancellor explaining why he missed his inflation target. Yesterday, the euro reached a new high for the year at 1.3793 contrary to my expectation of a weaker euro into year-end. Since ... (full story)

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Oct 26, 2013 3:11am

I give the guy 10 point (out of 10). He got it wrong like I did for exactly the same reasons and is still not getting bullish the Euro just like I'm not for exactly the same reasons. I'm not saying we won't see a higher Euro before year end, but at some point soon, we will know how the market feels about any potential future Fed action... After all, this is all about the Fed. Nothing else.

Oct 27, 2013 11:31am

Quoting jaygee

Disliked

What does quite some time mean? 10 minutes, 10 days, 10 years. When people post about timeframes and don't specify the actual tf they are talking about, it is useless to read. It means nothing.

Ignored

It's been long for a year now .............
It's been on wave 3 for, 4 months now.
When you talk about Monthly and Weekly charts you are not talking about 10 minutes, or 10 days or 10 Years if anyone knows anything about the EU chart................IMO

Oct 27, 2013 11:48am

Quoting jaygee

Disliked

Please be around when i cover. I will want to hear your opinion then. eu, gu, uj short, long uc, oil. Because someone doesn't trade like you, doesn't mean they aren't profitable. There is more than one way to skin a cat. O yes, btw just getting this eu short going so plenty of room to add more if need be.

Ignored

Last 3 weeks in posted in various threads 3 profitable cable signals:

- short at 1.6230 (before 3 weeks) - take profit at 1.5950
- long at 1.5916 (before 2 weeks) - take profit at 1.6230
- long at 1.6125 (last week) - take profit at 1.6230

All above were implemented with only 30 pips SL. You can calculate the RR ratios and the total pips gained (no negative trades in this period). Each trade - 1 lot size (I trade my own capital - doesn't have hedge fund to cover me up

.

Oct 27, 2013 11:50am

Quoting jaygee

Disliked

Please be around when i cover. I will want to hear your opinion then. eu, gu, uj short, long uc, oil. Because someone doesn't trade like you, doesn't mean they aren't profitable. There is more than one way to skin a cat. O yes, btw just getting this eu short going so plenty of room to add more if need be.

Ignored

Will take special care to send you cable signal on PM when one occurs!

Oct 27, 2013 12:34pm

Quoting jaygee

Disliked

good trades. have my own signals though. Thanks anyway. Holding 124 lots here. Some long, some short. hedge fund? lol.

Ignored

Well, size is good :-). But honestly I remember my first successful 250+ pip trades (like a dollar per pip) when I started FX - those kind of gave me splendid satisfaction, storm of emotions :-). Now is more cold calculated math :-). Good luck next week!

Oct 25, 2013 12:40pm

It happens. I am a lower target, too, but it was was before the trend shift.

I noticed a lot of these analysts, and some posters on here, are too prideful to admit they were wrong or afraid to change their outlook. They fail to see trend changes.

It's ok to say given the circumstances three months ago led me to target A, but due to new circumstances now leads be to target B

FX is dynamic. A trader's recognition, problem solving and implementation must be dynamic too.

Keynes said something like (loose paraphrase), as the facts change so does my mind.

I still give this analyst props for eating crow. Not many will.

Oct 25, 2013 12:43pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

yea...
\"nobody is perfect\"

maybe it's for next year...
now seems heading 1.4, cable to 1.65...
who knows?

\"world is complex\"

Ignored

Very possible. Given continued dollar weakness, technically 1.3950ish is probable. But I would like to see a close above 1.383

Oct 25, 2013 2:39pm

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

\"When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir?\"

It's not the worst article from EFX, despite it being click bait first and content second. Deutsche isn't publishing its opinion and notes for retail and the vast majority of their clients are institutional, mainly taking positions to smooth currency fluctuations, think BMW, Merc, BASF.

Ignored

Ah, yes! That's it. For the life of me I couldn't remember it exactly, but I think it holds water.

And agree to your second comment. I know a lot of these were the author gets paid per view, which I why I don't click on seekingalpha. If the excerpt FF offers doesn't tell me something I don't already know, not worth paying someone to read it lol

Oct 27, 2013 7:40am

Quoting Trout

Disliked

Nothing is life is predetermined to the point we'd risk all our hard earned eggs in one basket. Grand pattern in EURUSD is still lower. In 2013 the secondary rally which kicked off in Aug '12 morphed into a primary rally. I like the idea of scouting long-term shorts from here up to 140.

Ignored

Looking for 1.395 by year end

Oct 25, 2013 12:54pm

Today I've scrolled through EURUSD related messages around this year February top and March bottom. DB correctly predicted 1,37 top a week before it actally happened, but predicted pair to fall to 1,2 in days around March low.

Oct 26, 2013 8:22am

yah you are not bullish on EUR now!!!! this time you are on right side, the up side almost reach from 1.20 to 1.37. my be 200-400 more pips.

Oct 27, 2013 11:02am

The weekly and Monthly have been pointing long for quite some time.
How can you get this one wrong?

Oct 25, 2013 1:00pm

Nobody is printing like the US Fed is printing. Game over!

Oct 25, 2013 11:48pm

Good thing is no serious trader actually even reads the banks trading tips :-).

Oct 27, 2013 9:07am

More jaygee short on E/U :-).

Oct 25, 2013 5:08pm

Nice - they threw in a towel. That's a good short signal.

Oct 26, 2013 10:22am

Goldman Sachs long-term projections are usually eeringly accurate.makes u wonder....

Oct 26, 2013 11:16am

The EurUsd has climbed from it low of the year to an equivalent of one thin US Dime / 1000 pips with a little overshoot. Just my opinion, @ 1.3830, there's a strong supply zone on the Weekly with a pivot to match. Looks grossly overbought and I am just waiting for the Open this week and will look to short back down to near 1.37.

Oct 25, 2013 2:56pm

At least Bilal isn't compounding his mistake by flip flopping and trying to chase the euro above 1.50.

Oct 26, 2013 6:18pm

it still should correct down some....got the craziness of the Congress debt fight again coming up and any world unrest and we may have a trend back downward....at least temporarily.....

Oct 28, 2013 6:44am

"We Got It Wrong On EUR But...- "

I wonder if Eur is about ready to flip over and die. It doesn't seem likely but when I read a post like this, I always recheck my charts.

Oct 25, 2013 2:22pm

"When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir?"

It's not the worst article from EFX, despite it being click bait first and content second. Deutsche isn't publishing its opinion and notes for retail and the vast majority of their clients are institutional, mainly taking positions to smooth currency fluctuations, think BMW, Merc, BASF.

Quoting Pip Anon

Disliked

It happens. I am a lower target, too, but it was was before the trend shift.

I noticed a lot of these analysts, and some posters on here, are too prideful to admit they were wrong or afraid to change their outlook. They fail to see trend changes.

It's ok to say given the circumstances three months ago led me to target A, but due to new circumstances now leads be to target B

FX is dynamic. A trader's recognition, problem solving and implementation must be dynamic too.

Keynes said something like (loose paraphrase), as the facts change...

Ignored

Oct 25, 2013 2:52pm

It's actually quite a sad indictment that skilled authors and traders are reduced to writing articles for a few dollars and then relying on pumping the article for all its worth on forums etc. There's just far too many generic FX and trading websites out there. FF and a couple of others have nailed it in the FX space but the volume of 'noise' is deafening at times.

Quoting Pip Anon

Disliked

Ah, yes! That's it. For the life of me I couldn't remember it exactly, but I think it holds water.

And agree to your second comment. I know a lot of these were the author gets paid per view, which I why I don't click on seekingalpha. If the excerpt FF offers doesn't tell me something I don't already know, not worth paying someone to read it lol

Ignored

Oct 26, 2013 5:31am — Edited

One instructive thing here (especially for noobs and other not so new to industry traders that tend to cling to notions of manipulation and exclusive knowledge by so-called big boys, etc). Anyone can get it wrong and no one in particular has exclusive advantage. It is a market and to the extent that anyone manages participation successfully we can assume such success is based on hard work, commitment, etc and so we all have a chance.

My point is i would rather apply effort to improving myself as a trader than engage in the escapist fantasies that tend to shift the reasons for failure to others especially via excuses based on conspiracy theories. For me this is hard evidence that there is little substance in such an attitude.

Nice One1

Oct 26, 2013 1:21pm

Nothing is life is predetermined to the point we'd risk all our hard earned eggs in one basket. Grand pattern in EURUSD is still lower. In 2013 the secondary rally which kicked off in Aug '12 morphed into a primary rally. I like the idea of scouting long-term shorts from here up to 140.

Oct 26, 2013 2:08pm — Edited

Quoting Subdude

Disliked

Nice - they threw in a towel. That's a good short signal.

Ignored

Nothing and absolutely nothing suggests a reversal of the long-term direction of the Euro at this time. Lets not forget that the Euro has been falling now over 4 years and at this stage that is not changed and I reckon the probability of that changing is pretty low. However whether going up or down price moves up and down and the Euro is moving up with space up to !.47/48 still consistent with its overall bearish tendency long-term. Therefore if you see a decay in prices it is more likely to be some temporary discounting nothing to worry the longer-term investor. Just a thought.

BTW: This is based on thorough analysis of the market and I am not suggesting at this point that the indication above should be thought of as a forecast rather it serves merely to clarify the points made in this post. However, by my projections (and in line with my overall analysis of the market) 1.40+ is my current projection at which point it would be reasonable to review things once again.

Oct 26, 2013 2:59pm

Quoting WhiteHorse

Disliked

I still dont have a clue, why some trader or banker will ever declare his/her position in market?

Ignored

I hear you Whitehorse...but I just can't help it sometimes. And it's fun to step out. I'm guessing it may be an alpha thing too.

At least I know to fade myself, and, above all: follow the method and manage trades to plan.

Oct 27, 2013 8:46am

Quoting Trout

Disliked

I hear you Whitehorse...but I just can't help it sometimes. And it's fun to step out. I'm guessing it may be an alpha thing too.

At least I know to fade myself, and, above all: follow the method and manage trades to plan.

Ignored

Fade yourself? lol. Please post your trades then so i can too!

Yes though, short euro from here will pay off. Very good odds.

Oct 27, 2013 9:25am

Please be around when i cover. I will want to hear your opinion then. eu, gu, uj short, long uc, oil. Because someone doesn't trade like you, doesn't mean they aren't profitable. There is more than one way to skin a cat. O yes, btw just getting this eu short going so plenty of room to add more if need be.

Oct 27, 2013 9:32am

eur/usd weekly 62 fib from 2011 high to 2012 low exact high from last week. Weekly dtl just above. When was the last time price touched the monthly upper band and not retrace the next month? Just a couple of items to consider.

Oct 27, 2013 11:14am

They need not apologize for calling the wrong direction, traders who listen to so called experts to make trading decisions should be sorry for depending on someone else to tell you which way and when to trade.

Study your charts and learn to read them - charts will tell when to trade and which way. Do not blame others for your losses - you must be responsible and make decisions on your own based off your charts

Oct 27, 2013 11:26am

Quoting forexalien

Disliked

The weekly and Monthly have been pointing long for quite some time.
How can you get this one wrong?

Ignored

What does quite some time mean? 10 minutes, 10 days, 10 years. When people post about timeframes and don't specify the actual tf they are talking about, it is useless to read. It means nothing.

Oct 27, 2013 12:24pm

Quoting forexalien

Disliked

It's been long for a year now .............
It's been on wave 3 for, 4 months now.
When you talk about Monthly and Weekly charts you are not talking about 10 minutes, or 10 days or 10 Years if anyone knows anything about the EU chart................IMO

Ignored

When you don't specify, the posts don't matter. Nothing against your posts but without a tf, i can't talk about them. Now if you see a monthly up trend, i am all years because i see a flag with a 1.2 base and ever descending highs. Not so bullish for me. good luck with it though.

Oct 27, 2013 1:00pm

I'm not sure if you're attempting ironic humour here, or just blatant hypocrisy, but your comments, coming as they do from a methodless hopeless gambler, someone who blurts out random meaningless 'bingo' calls on a regular basis, you've got some front to challenge others' on their observations.

Quoting jaygee

Disliked

What does quite some time mean? 10 minutes, 10 days, 10 years. When people post about timeframes and don't specify the actual tf they are talking about, it is useless to read. It means nothing.

When you don't specify, the posts don't matter. Nothing against your posts but without a tf, i can't talk about them.

Ignored

Oct 25, 2013 12:44pm

So you predict higher, sell to your clients and it goes lower and then the sorry's comeout? Learn how to play the game Deutshbank, never apologize for making money off your clients. geeeeez.

Trader#7FF8

Oct 25, 2013 1:47pm

The Fed is being exposed for what they are. Tapir could well come next week. Does anyone really think the Fed likes short-term traders? They laughed when most traders got wrong-footed by the previous decision not to taper. And they may well laugh again when they taper next week. Bernanke has crashed the S&P (temporarily) a few times during the last few years with his announcements. The last few weeks I have been trading real small and keeping a hawk eye on the markets, whilst remaining long cash in a third world trash currency that pays good interest and has remained little changed (maybe even strengthening) against USD over the last few weeks.

I must congratulate some of the commentators on ff for doing a bit research recently about the US Fed, well done.

Maybe a huge scam is about to be exposed? A couple guys are really getting worried that the emperor has no clothes.

Oct 26, 2013 1:14am

I still dont have a clue, why some trader or banker will ever declare his/her position in market?

Trader#C466

Oct 26, 2013 6:00am

You need to accept the part probabilities play as part of the process in trading, 50:50 win loss ratio, with 1:2 RR works superbly if the trader maintains discipline and tight MM. New traders (such as you) spend far too much time devoted to various strategies trying to "improve yourselves as traders" when the obvious improvements are incredibly easy to implement.

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

One instructive thing here (especially to noobs and other not so new to industry traders that tend to cling to notions of manipulation and exclusive knowledge by so-called big boys, etc). Anyone can get it wrong and no one in particular has exclusive advantage. It is a market and to the extent that anyone manages participation successfully we can assume such success is based on hard work, commitment, etc and so we all have a chance.

My point is i would rather apply effort to improving myself as a trader than engage in the escapist fantasies that...

Ignored

Oct 26, 2013 10:56pm

too funny for words...

Oct 27, 2013 12:16pm

good trades. have my own signals though. Thanks anyway. Holding 124 lots here. Some long, some short. hedge fund? lol.

Oct 27, 2013 12:51pm

well my girl friend keeps telling me that but i can't decide if it is a compliment or if she is dissing me. gl to you to.

ahhhh, those first trades

Trader#306A

Oct 27, 2013 2:37pm

Quoting Trout

Disliked

Nothing is life is predetermined to the point we'd risk all our hard earned eggs in one basket. Grand pattern in EURUSD is still lower. In 2013 the secondary rally which kicked off in Aug '12 morphed into a primary rally. I like the idea of scouting long-term shorts from here up to 140.

Ignored

don't wait start averaging

Trader#4610

Oct 25, 2013 12:15pm

yea...
"nobody is perfect"

maybe it's for next year...
now seems heading 1.4, cable to 1.65...
who knows?

"world is complex"

Trader#49C1

Oct 25, 2013 12:21pm

"So "through my fault, through my fault, through my most grievous fault"...

pffft i bet he knew all along. like the federal reserve creates the bubbles.

Trader#7FF8

Oct 25, 2013 1:47pm

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/rand-paul-threat-block-yellen-nomination-kicks-us-172308231.html

Trader#B80F

Oct 25, 2013 3:47pm

I respect the man even more he is admitting his mistake. Very few do.

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Oct 25, 2013 11:40am
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