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  • Senate Leaders Reach Agreement to End Fiscal Impasse

    From bloomberg.com

    The bipartisan leaders of the U.S. Senate reached an agreement to end the fiscal impasse and to increase U.S. borrowing authority. The Senate and House plan to vote on it later today, and the White House press secretary said President Barack Obama supports the deal. The agreement would end the 16-day government shutdown and allow the U.S. to continue borrowing, the day before its authority lapses. House Republicans today signaled that they will let it pass largely with Democratic votes. Senate opponents of the agreement, including Texas Republican Ted Cruz, said they won’t stall a vote. “The compromise we reached ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Oct 16, 2013 3:25pm Oct 16, 2013 3:25pm
Time to s e/u?
  • #2
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  • Oct 16, 2013 3:26pm Oct 16, 2013 3:26pm
e/u 1.32xx soon
  • #3
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  • Oct 16, 2013 3:30pm Oct 16, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting ibram.forex
e/u 1.32xx soon
Or 1.38xx... Who knows...
  • #4
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  • Oct 16, 2013 3:32pm Oct 16, 2013 3:32pm
Quoting radugh78
Or 1.38xx... Who knows...
Yeah u never know
  • #5
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  • Oct 16, 2013 3:33pm Oct 16, 2013 3:33pm
Quoting ibram.forex
Yeah u never know
Dont trade on EU now. It will always against the news.
  • #6
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  • Oct 16, 2013 3:35pm Oct 16, 2013 3:35pm
Quoting ayodhya
Dont trade on EU now. It will always against the news.
I know what u mean but i think Aud is more of against the news
  • #7
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  • Oct 16, 2013 3:39pm Oct 16, 2013 3:39pm
Quoting ibram.forex
I know what u mean but i think Aud is more of against the news
for AUD was heavily and badly down last few months,and now it is on bullish trend by heavy funds from Banks and other sources. So dont expect more on AUD. There are sell orders at 96-97. you can see that happens to NZD also.
  • #8
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  • Oct 16, 2013 3:41pm Oct 16, 2013 3:41pm
You know what I find funny? The S&P and dollar gain on Congress finally doing their jobs.

Really nothing has changed. A month ago when this deadline wasn't an issue the S&P wasn't at these highs. Now for some reason it's worthy for 20 pt rallies on something that should have been down a year or two earlier.

It's completely mind boggling.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #9
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  • Oct 16, 2013 3:47pm Oct 16, 2013 3:47pm
Quoting Pip Anon
You know what I find funny? The S&P and dollar gain on Congress finally doing their jobs.

Really nothing has changed. A month ago when this deadline wasn't an issue the S&P wasn't at these highs. Now for some reason it's worthy for 20 pt rallies on something that should have been down a year or two earlier.

It's completely mind boggling.
Its short covering. Hedge funds started to short this in late Sept, they only started to cover their positions a week ago after the reps/dems started talking to each other.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #10
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  • Oct 16, 2013 4:09pm Oct 16, 2013 4:09pm
Yea you're right lol. But the market think its in the bag. Maybe so. 7h and 57 mins.

I think what I was trying to point out was the velocity. There is a clear inflection point on 10/9, but until then it was a stair step down. The market has almost eliminated a month of losses in less than two weeks.

I expect a short cover to happen when there is a deal done. I figured some consolidation after that mammoth 36 pt day, but it's topped on another 30 The market never priced in a worst case scenario because 50 or so pts probably wouldn't cut it. Now it's like so is it a sell the fact or lets add another 50 pts.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #11
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  • Oct 16, 2013 4:11pm Oct 16, 2013 4:11pm
Where's a link to the time line before we have to go through this charade again? Anyone got any figures on the actual raise amount and how long before Obama has to go back cap in hand?
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #12
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  • Oct 16, 2013 4:23pm Oct 16, 2013 4:23pm
Quoting Spreadbetter
Where's a link to the time line before we have to go through this charade again? Anyone got any figures on the actual raise amount and how long before Obama has to go back cap in hand?
The market doesn't care, should we? I mean, I do because it's feckin up my children's children; but, we live in a world were you can put a bandaid on a festering boo boo and it's better. The wound becomes gangrenous and then say "wait, how did that happen?"
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #13
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  • Oct 16, 2013 4:27pm Oct 16, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Yea you're right lol. But the market think its in the bag. Maybe so. 7h and 57 mins.

I think what I was trying to point out was the velocity. There is a clear inflection point on 10/9, but until then it was a stair step down. The market has almost eliminated a month of losses in less than two weeks.

I expect a short cover to happen when there is a deal done. I figured some consolidation after that mammoth 36 pt day, but it's topped on another 30 The market never priced in a worst case scenario because 50 or so pts probably wouldn't cut it....
They know its in the bag once the reps/dems started talking to each other, this is all political brinkmanship anyways, nobody really expects the US govt to default.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #14
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  • Oct 16, 2013 4:28pm Oct 16, 2013 4:28pm
Seriously mate, I feel your pain, its fubar, Fed, ECB, BoE = joke (on us). You seen any figures on the actual raise? Despite the tub thumping it looks and smells like a fudge to me...it's not a can that's being kicked anymore, just a misshaped shard of rusty metal...

Quoting Pip Anon
The market doesn't care, should we? I mean, I do because it's feckin up my children's children; but, we live in a world were you can put a bandaid on a festering boo boo and it's better. The wound becomes gangrenous and then say "wait, how did that happen?"
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #15
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  • Oct 16, 2013 4:44pm Oct 16, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting Spec_And
They know its in the bag once the reps/dems started talking to each other, this is all political brinkmanship anyways, nobody really expects the US govt to default.
Really? They don't default by borrowing money. The well will tap out. We can be nonchalant this time like the many times before, but I hope you're not in the country when it happens. When obligations are $20-25 trillion, how willing will China and Japan be than?

See what the market should really rally on is an actionable plan that cuts the bullshit.

Nobody really expected the US govt to do their job neither
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #16
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  • Oct 16, 2013 4:56pm Oct 16, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Really? They don't default by borrowing money. The well will tap out. We can be nonchalant this time like the many times before, but I hope you're not in the country when it happens. When obligations are $20-25 trillion, how willing will China and Japan be than?

See what the market should really rally on is an actionable plan that cuts the bullshit.

Nobody really expected the US govt to do their job neither
The dollar will devalue when the national debt become that big, in any case it makes no sense to hold onto cash, stocks will still perform far better than cash in such a scenario.

A hard default is not an option that the US govt or lawmakers will ever consider.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #17
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  • Oct 16, 2013 5:02pm Oct 16, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting Spec_And
The dollar will devalue when the national debt become that big, in any case it makes no sense to hold onto cash, stocks will still perform far better than cash in such a scenario.

A hard default is not an option that the US govt or lawmakers will ever consider.
At that point they won't have an option in the matter.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #18
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  • Oct 16, 2013 6:03pm Oct 16, 2013 6:03pm
Valid point, I wonder if there's a debt limit, that means the USA finally breaches a rubicon, from where investors believe there's no recovery? 25 trn, 30 trn?

Quoting Pip Anon
Really? They don't default by borrowing money. The well will tap out. We can be nonchalant this time like the many times before, but I hope you're not in the country when it happens. When obligations are $20-25 trillion, how willing will China and Japan be than?

See what the market should really rally on is an actionable plan that cuts the bullshit.

Nobody really expected the US govt to do their job neither
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #19
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  • Oct 16, 2013 6:11pm Oct 16, 2013 6:11pm
In corporate finance (for those schooled in business) we study about certain irrelevancies - seems fundamental analysts (a non science and in fact a non subject really) aught to do the same sometimes - there aught to be some limit even to nonsense. Nice One!

BTW: as I am wont to say it is after all akin to reading the future by the entrails of dead animals (think about that). what a laugh
  • #20
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  • Oct 16, 2013 6:18pm Oct 16, 2013 6:18pm
But reading some of the posts here - especially the first three or so one would wonder why the followers of fundamentals bother at all - really why? what a laugh at a scandal
  • #21
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  • Oct 16, 2013 6:20pm Oct 16, 2013 6:20pm
Until a suitable market demand substitute has been developed, I'm not sure the US debt calamity will be left high and dry and short of credit.
If China really gets it's domestic demand act together though...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #22
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  • Oct 16, 2013 6:37pm Oct 16, 2013 6:37pm
  •  Trader#2AD4
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
I agree with PipAnon
when a debt ceiling is raised to such a level that it is there simply to pay interest on previous borrowings (16-18 Trillion ) and the balance of trade is in deficit, and fiscal spending is greater than fiscal revenue, then a currency begins an unstoppable slide into a devalued and worthless currency.

All it will take is for BOJ and PBOC to "quietly" sell off some of their 3 Trillion holdings between now and January 2014 then the US will really fall off the Fiscal cliff.

Old dog ( kiwi )
  • #23
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  • Oct 16, 2013 6:48pm Oct 16, 2013 6:48pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Until a suitable market demand substitute has been developed, I'm not sure the US debt calamity will be left high and dry and short of credit.
If China really gets it's domestic demand act together though...
I think it will happen in China sooner than later. But even if it's a decade...

It's funny to read some comments that basically indicate as long as it doesn't happen now all is well... for now. So, if the US implodes in five, ten or 15 years is that any better knowing it could have been avoided?

If the US goes down, world will hurt for a long time.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #24
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  • Oct 16, 2013 6:51pm Oct 16, 2013 6:51pm
Quoting Spreadbetter
Valid point, I wonder if there's a debt limit, that means the USA finally breaches a rubicon, from where investors believe there's no recovery? 25 trn, 30 trn?
I believe as long as they can borrow it doesn't matter. It's already $.60 per dollar spent is foreign funds. Roughly 2 billion in interest paid to debtors every quarter.

I believe that the US is the only country in the world that can simply just raise the debt limit like it was a line drawn in sand.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #25
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  • Oct 16, 2013 7:27pm Oct 16, 2013 7:27pm
Quoting Pip Anon
I think it will happen in China sooner than later. But even if it's a decade...

It's funny to read some comments that basically indicate as long as it doesn't happen now all is well... for now. So, if the US implodes in five, ten or 15 years is that any better knowing it could have been avoided?

If the US goes down, world will hurt for a long time.
I agree.

My initial thought is that they would go down swinging.

However, I'm pretty sure they are aware of their precarious position and are "gradually" planning and implementing more pre-emptive strike propaganda BS to increase financial control/influence as their financial burdens mount.

I think it will soon get to the point where they say "fcuk it", we are going to do what ever we have to do to maintain our position. (If they are not there already).

If it gets to this, you can be sure of more justifiable hilarity of such a ridiculous nature, the big BS shoes of their last pre-emptive strike will well and truly be filled
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #26
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  • Oct 16, 2013 8:44pm Oct 16, 2013 8:44pm
Quoting Pip Anon
At that point they won't have an option in the matter.
I dont think you got my point.

Devaluing currency = soft default

Refusing to pay your bills = hard default

And yes its always possible to soft default.

But like what Ill-b-back said, there is currently no urgency to resolve this issue because there is no substitute for the dollar, yet. The dollar would be worth probably 1/10th of what its worth right now if the euro wasn't that problematic.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
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  • Posted: Oct 16, 2013 3:22pm
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     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 26  /  Views: 4,695