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  • USD/JPY lower again

    From forexlive.com

    The Nikkei is recovering some of its Friday’s losses, but a long USD/JPY market is seeing stops getting hit taking it lower. The USD as a whole is overall weak, but the move against the yen is by far the biggest. There are more stops below 99.70

ej dropped 90, gj down 106, uj down 72.. seems pretty fishy seeing as the Nikkei is up on hopes for a cheap yen and improving exports.
The market makers take em down Yen Pairs to max the profit. They will be going back up IMHO.
Quoting wlarimer
ej dropped 90, gj down 106, uj down 72.. seems pretty fishy seeing as the Nikkei is up on hopes for a cheap yen and improving exports.
long time ago I promissed myself not to trade JPY crosses and this is the reason after the election and things said about Shinzo Abe the expectation was massive JPY weakness and Nikkei losses 300 pips in 20 minutes and JPY gains almost 100 pips against all crosses,
Quoting holmes
long time ago I promissed myself not to trade JPY crosses and this is the reason after the election and things said about Shinzo Abe the expectation was massive JPY weakness and Nikkei losses 300 pips in 20 minutes and JPY gains almost 100 pips against all crosses,
i dont believe nikkei fell after his election win... this is ridiculous... are they kidding?
Just watch and see, ABE is not yet finished. Remember he promised to come back after election.
the more times it crosses 100 the better..... a 100 pip drop is just a added bonus.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
how can nikkei and USD/YEN possibly fall?
Maybe it was the earthquake in New Zealand. I don't see any other logical reason for it.
Quoting holmes
long time ago I promissed myself not to trade JPY crosses and this is the reason after the election and things said about Shinzo Abe the expectation was massive JPY weakness and Nikkei losses 300 pips in 20 minutes and JPY gains almost 100 pips against all crosses,



You said very true ! They run the toy Kingdom in japan & Nikkei is a chocolate factory ,so beware yen this time ?
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traders were taking speculative longs on USDJPY and nikkei late friday, my platform closes around 10 minutes after MT4. same traders probably took profit this morning.
nice dip below 100, there cashing in stops around 100, typical fx
perhaps will clean out all the stops below 100 and from there it will take off upwards
the interesting thing is stop hitting happens mostly when the market is illiquid or absent of big money, this means the big players are sitting on the sideline. what are they waiting for? what is the other shoe that needs to drop for big gap to happen?
Perhaps people should consider that there was a massive inflow of Yen back to Japan last week as Japanese institutions and individual investors repatriated money. This was all over the news - a kind of Risk-Off out of caution for the election results.

So with most of their money in Japan over the weekend and the outcome of the election favourable toward additional QE by BoJ, what would be the expected action most investors would take? Expecting my Yen in Japan to be devalued (massively and 100% sure) I would invest it abroad.

Yen outflow from Japan results in Yen appreciation as the domestic and international money base shrinks. Combine that with a bearish stance toward the USD and behold: USDJPY down.
cryptocurrency everytime
VENZEN GREAT POST!
In a way the market is being good to us: I expect that by Tokyo market close all the Yen would have become Dollars and bonds and foreign stocks and then the UJ uptrend will resume. Alternatively a week of UJ down while the USD bears have their way.

Of course, do not forget those wiley foxes who thought about this long ago and strategized to get maximum bang for their buck at this time of relative Yen strength around $100. Some spikes and volatility in the week ahead maybe?

During the past 3 weeks Commercials have been net short USD and net long (77.7%) the Yen. Clever.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting venzen
Perhaps people should consider that there was a massive inflow of Yen back to Japan last week as Japanese institutions and individual investors repatriated money. This was all over the news - a kind of Risk-Off out of caution for the election results.

So with most of their money in Japan over the weekend and the outcome of the election favourable toward additional QE by BoJ, what would be the expected action most investors would take? Expecting my Yen in Japan to be devalued (massively and 100% sure) I would invest it abroad.

Yen outflow...
Thanks for covering that Venzen.
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interesting theory, so the Japanese can move vast amounts of money (yen) into and out of Japan at short notice. that would definitely not be legally possible in some countries with stringent foreign exchange control regulations. just saying ...
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Short since the 2nd of July on technicals' only - expect this to go below 95 - China crisis looming - Japs become golden boys of Asia again & everybody wants some yen (demand). US does as much about debt (cost of Obamacare) as it does about gun control, BB's recovery stalls and GC is value (greenback distribution + gold accumulation) plus ES & Bonds positively correlated again for the big drop - question is when?
Possibly after current earnings season fails to live up to expectations and the summer euphoria is over.

Start building the position now (small, selling on rallies above 100) and add on confirmation (break below 97, 95 etc) target 75 - hedge with another pair.

Always do the opposite of what the talking heads suggest !! Do you remember Soros advice to buy gold at the end of last year?
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@Venzen

"Expecting my Yen in Japan to be devalued (massively and 100% sure) I would invest it abroad."

Don't see the relevance. We are talking specifically about the USD/JPY and the US has just as much QE going on as Japan - therefore the arguments for devaluing apply equally to both currencies - why would the Yen be devalued any more than the USD? What is the Macro picture here? - If I was a Jap institution one of the last things I'd buy at the moment is the USD. I would be looking to invest in Gold, Gov't backed utilities in emerging mkts like Africa along with telecoms, agriculture & mining - def wouldn't be swapping yen for dollars. So it boils down to which one will be more greatly effected by global bearish sentiment ! If you had to pick a BUY would you go with the overbought USD or the oversold JPY?

Rhetorical questions are great !!
Well some fair commentary. I mentioned the USD as an example of where cash Yen may go now the "safe haven" timeframe has passed. As you say, Gold enjoyed a strong up-day today since market open.

As for the Dollar being overbought, that is debatable. Surely the past 4 years of QE has not left us with a strong USD and the prospect of higher rates does not herald a weaker USD. Yes, the USD index is currently sliding downwards, but longterm...

An earlier comment regarding "the Japanese can move vast amounts of money (yen) into and out of Japan at short notice". When investment funds move the laws are not the same ones pertaining to the man in the street and his retail bank account. Evenso, retail investors can usually invest around 1mil in foreign assets and institutions much more.
cryptocurrency everytime
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  • Posted: Jul 21, 2013 8:17pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Medium Impact Breaking News
    Comments: 21  /  Views: 5,636