Menu

  • Australian dollar less than 90 U.S. cents for first time since September 2010

it's time to buy aud.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.145.19
hooooo yes and NZD too !!!! i'm long with very very high lot size , don't miss this opportunity.
Quoting orzogc
it's time to buy aud.
why ?
Stevens, the old bald motherfucker.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
Quoting mrbandwidth
Stevens, the old bald motherfucker.
lol
Quoting orzogc
it's time to buy aud.
I wouldn't do that.
I want to be rich.
why time to buy aud ?
what about eurusd
buy aud // oversold
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.145.19
Quoting eurusdthb
I wouldn't do that.
it is precisely because most do not do that is interesting to play , market is driven by a very small percentage of trader/bank which will trade the opposite of the majority and not the reverse.

my long is at 0.9011 with SL 0.75 TP 1.0850 high swap currency so this trade may remain year for me as long as he do not go to stoploss.

Nice w-e all
I think the AUD can go down to 0.88 in the next few days..
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.126.88
0.85 next target
Quoting Guest
it is precisely because most do not do that is interesting to play , market is driven by a very small percentage of trader/bank which will trade the opposite of the majority and not the reverse.

my long is at 0.9011 with SL 0.75 TP 1.0850 high swap currency so this trade may remain year for me as long as he do not go to stoploss.

Nice w-e all
Of course! Bank has a billion or more than trillion dollars.
Nevertheless, Hope you good luck on your trade.
I want to be rich.
Doubt it will even reach 0.85 without major re-trace to almost 1.00
Quoting ForexCat
I think the AUD can go down to 0.88 in the next few days..
today
as long it goes zig zag while going anywhere you all predicting, i like it.
markets are moving in the direction of greatest pain, about 70% retail traders are long
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.230.188
wave 5 completes. It is reversal time to parity
Quoting distancefind
what about eurusd
your typical question

i dont trade anymore EURUSD but if I had I would stay short for now
Quoting pcca-matrix
your typical question

i dont trade anymore EURUSD but if I had I would stay short for now
thanks pcce matrix
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.112.51
Quoting Guest
hooooo yes and NZD too !!!! i'm long with very very high lot size , don't miss this opportunity.

well , i'd like to congratulate you in advanced for your margin call
Quoting Gwan
as long it goes zig zag while going anywhere you all predicting, i like it.
no predictions , but risk reward for buying AUD at this level is very good ! and even better for NZD.

all depends on your trading style , i'm always try to catch big move , some prefer taking small pips , it's a choice.

the important is that it ends in green pips .

G/L
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.112.51
there are some serious news 50 mins from now on USD , if it is positive we will see a massive sell for AUD , if todays candle closes below .9030 then it will be a very good chance to go short on this pair , don't let your emotions get the best of you , the trend is deadly down and trading against this trend is completely a noob idea
some bad data in China, in addition and risk off mode will be part of our reality.
only equities don't believe that, yet.
Quoting orzogc
it's time to buy aud.
it's been "time to buy" for 3 months according to the oversold committee. Aussie makes new lows every week. Anything other than a scalp is silly.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
Quoting johnel
some bad data in China, in addition and risk off mode will be part of our reality.
only equities don't believe that, yet.
They don't need to believe it. Bernanke gave out new syringes of hopium
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
Everyone's got a view, but watch the charts. The AUD is going to close the weekly chart with a huge bearish candle, indicating the downside momentum is resuming after a pause earlier in the week. The one hour chart just closed with a hammer candle so expect a small bounce up, probably capped at 0.9100 or even the 20ema at 0.9134. Definitely not above this and will probably struggle to bounce much at all.

The Chinese GDP is on Monday, so huge event risk with little upside expected, which may put further pressure on the AUD. Price reached the top of the downtrend channel yesterday at 0.93 and has retraced 300 pips to 0.8998 today. The bottom of the channel will be around 0.8830 on Monday, which is now take profit on my short from 0.9852.

Imho it will take a major fundamental change in sentiment of either the AUD or USD to halt the AUD decline. 0.85 and maybe even 0.8000 is a possibility.
Quoting Pip Anon
They don't need to believe it. Bernanke gave out new syringes of hopium
that's why going north, are already injected.
but when opium shall take effect, all equities investors will have my avatar's eyes.
Quoting Pip Anon
it's been "time to buy" for 3 months according to the oversold committee. Aussie makes new lows every week. Anything other than a scalp is silly.
So true Pip. If someone is scalping they should already be in from 0.9000 and maybe out by now at 0.9050.
Quoting johnel
that's why going north, are already injected.
but when opium shall take effect, all equities investors will have my avatar's eyes.
Well, yes. Which is fine and dandy today, just be ready for the withdrawal and crash because that will be an SOB

Quoting Deano9999
So true Pip. If someone is scalping they should already be in from 0.9000 and maybe out by now at 0.9050.
Yes, that would be a nice trade. Goes to show Aussie's nature: I longed Aussie at .9246 TP at .928, look where it went lol. It would be a rarity if I stay in an Aussie trade a few hours max.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
And some wonder why retail traders are their own worst enemies.

Quoting johnel
that's why going north, are already injected.
but when opium shall take effect, all equities investors will have my avatar's eyes.
Yes, that would be a nice trade. Goes to show Aussie's nature: I longed Aussie at .9246 TP at .928, look where it went lol. It would be a rarity if I stay in an Aussie trade a few hours max.[/quote]

Well being from OZ the AUD is one of my basic trading pairs, and has been very kind inspite of the onerous swap costs. I've been short since mid-may and its showing signs of going further. Sometimes when they tank they really crash
Quoting Squeeze
And some wonder why retail traders are their own worst enemies.
I would like to consider me, their best enemy.
trap, false break
New low news indicate time to buy is near.
Quoting Mingary
New low news indicate time to buy is near.
How is that possible if it makes new lows every week? Lower lows is NOT the time to buy. Higher lows are.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
It's the news of it that's important ... it's in the news... every joe herd trader and his cousin will want to get into the "down trend" and sell, sell, sell... Retail traders are so predictable.
Swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show traders see a 75 percent chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its benchmark rate to an unprecedented 2.5 percent at its next meeting on Aug. 6. The probability was 45 percent at the start of the week. The key rate is currently at a record low of 2.75 percent.

This is the reason for the drop. On that basis the Aussie probably has further to fall.
Quoting Squeeze
Swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show traders see a 75 percent chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its benchmark rate to an unprecedented 2.5 percent at its next meeting on Aug. 6. The probability was 45 percent at the start of the week. The key rate is currently at a record low of 2.75 percent.

This is the reason for the drop. On that basis the Aussie probably has further to fall.
my view: If the rate is cut I expect the AUD to go up to rinse out the news followers...
Indicators are useless in a strong fundamental move. Aussie which is followed by NZD are tied into the Chinese economy. China will continue to stumble which will continue to weigh down both the AUD and NZD. There will always be rallies in a DT but unless their is a turn around in the Chinese economy, which may not happen anytime soon, you will see the aud and nzd continue to decline.

China has some fundamental problems in their economy which were masked by their 8-10% growth rate. Now that that period is over and they will probably settle into a more normal 4-7% growth rate these problems will have to be addressed. Chinese banks debt loads, which caused a temporary lock on overnight debt transfers last week and horrendously overvalued real estate are two issues that will plague them for a while. This will in turn to slow down their demand of AUD and NZD products. So long term buying of the AUSSIE is pure foolishness and buying the rallies can be done if you know what you are doing. Me, I am going to continue to sell the rallies, not buy them.
Quoting Squeeze
Swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show traders see a 75 percent chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its benchmark rate to an unprecedented 2.5 percent at its next meeting on Aug. 6. The probability was 45 percent at the start of the week. The key rate is currently at a record low of 2.75 percent.

This is the reason for the drop. On that basis the Aussie probably has further to fall.
not only that
take into account the risk off mode
It's not enough for Aus to rely on the demand from China, they'll have to now enter a phase of selling cheaply, they'll have to stimulate exports by cheapening the Aussie, which is still over valued vis a vis other currencies, due in the main part being out of step with the zirp followed by the majority of developed central banks.

For that reason I'd suggest they'll set out a 'forward guidance' policy suggesting lowering rates to 2.0% based on certain metrics, 'aggressively accommodating' as B.B. termed it.

Folk need to pull up a monthly chart to see where the Aussie has been back in May 2010 and as far back as 2008.

Quoting nanningbob
Indicators are useless in a strong fundamental move. Aussie which is followed by NZD are tied into the Chinese economy. China will continue to stumble which will continue to weigh down both the AUD and NZD. There will always be rallies in a DT but unless their is a turn around in the Chinese economy, which may not happen anytime soon, you will see the aud and nzd continue to decline.

China has some fundamental problems in their economy which were masked by their 8-10% growth rate. Now that that period is over and they will probably settle into...
Quoting Pip Anon
How is that possible if it makes new lows every week? Lower lows is NOT the time to buy. Higher lows are.
Very true
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.145.221
Quoting Pip Anon
How is that possible if it makes new lows every week? Lower lows is NOT the time to buy. Higher lows are.
Keep selling at these level, I'm a buyer not matter what..
@Nanningbob: Yes, I totally agree with u.
Quoting Guest
Keep selling at these level, I'm a buyer not matter what..
I don't, I sell rallies. Worked so far and shall until it no longer does. Keep buying at these levels and Ill see you at .8500
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
Don't buy Aud just yet....Think it will continue to drop and will take a while to recover with just small rallies....So if buying...The motto is to get in and out very quickly...lol
Quoting SusanT
Don't buy Aud just yet....Think it will continue to drop and will take a while to recover with just small rallies....So if buying...The motto is to get in and out very quickly...lol
A carry trade won't set up until consolidation
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
Its good to continue to short. Never try to find tops and bottoms.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.49.157
It is NOT the time to buy AUDUSD. NOT even close, short baby short. This thing was in consolidation for Three years, and now is going south like a Roo running from a fire.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.49.157
I would start to consider buying in the 0.7480 area not even consider a buy long term until then.

happy trade,
Quoting ilvoelv
Its good to continue to short. Never try to find tops and bottoms.
Seems you don't think the bottom has been reached. How can you take your profit if you short and don't look for the bottom? If the bottom is reached will you let all your profit slip away because you aren't looking for the top?

Traders look for bottom and top always. That's how we find entries.

Good to continue to short why? A feeling you have?

Stupid post!
Great insight Deano as you bet China release is likely set to "rock the markets" with very little liklihood of upside surprise.

Long EUR/AUD has been killer , and we will look to jump on more opportunities "after" we get the data out of China.

My system suggests getting long JPY some time on Monday so ....this would be a "risk off" move.
I'm short humanity, and long interplanetary travel. Forexkong.kom
sell audusd from 0.9117. TP : 0.8750
AUD will go to 0.85

A rate cut in August is a virtual certainty now, and that does nothing to strengthen anything.

Employment hours are dropping, job ads are dropping as well, so the AUD is too high at 0.90
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
Quoting nanningbob
Indicators are useless in a strong fundamental move. Aussie which is followed by NZD are tied into the Chinese economy. China will continue to stumble which will continue to weigh down both the AUD and NZD. There will always be rallies in a DT but unless their is a turn around in the Chinese economy, which may not happen anytime soon, you will see the aud and nzd continue to decline.

China has some fundamental problems in their economy which were masked by their 8-10% growth rate. Now that that period is over and they will probably settle into...
Hale Caesar, bob, thank you for saying it exactly like it is.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
[quote=nanningbob;6815977]Indicators are useless in a strong fundamental move. Aussie which is followed by NZD are tied into the Chinese economy. China will continue to stumble which will continue to weigh down both the AUD and NZD. There will always be rallies in a DT but unless their is a turn around in the Chinese economy, which may not happen anytime soon, you will see the aud and nzd continue to decline.

The AUDNZD cross also continues to trend lower, now at 1.1635 and looks likely to keep on going. The Auckland housing market is in a huge bubble so the RBNZ is likely to hold or even raise interest rates later this year - no chance of that in Oz. Also as Oz exports mainly dirt and metals, NZ exports mainly food. Which one do you think has a better chance of holding up as China's economy cools off?

The 78.6 fib of the large move 1.3795/1.0439 is at 1.1157 which is the only tech indicator left before parity. Imho this pair continues to offer the best way to get short on the AUD without the onerous swap costs and global noise, and has been the best single trade of the year (for me) so far. Its probably overdue to retrace but the sentiment and trend remains unchanged.
Quoting nanningbob
Indicators are useless in a strong fundamental move. Aussie which is followed by NZD are tied into the Chinese economy. China will continue to stumble which will continue to weigh down both the AUD and NZD. There will always be rallies in a DT but unless their is a turn around in the Chinese economy, which may not happen anytime soon, you will see the aud and nzd continue to decline.

China has some fundamental problems in their economy which were masked by their 8-10% growth rate. Now that that period is over and they will probably settle into...
Yes, and the two pairs NZDUSD and AUDUSD strongly correlated with gold (Aussie on the stronger side) with has some effect with China. We'll see tonight. GDP is expected to be lower than forecast, but the Chinese give out fake numbers so who knows.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
I see the AUD economy picking up again once their commodities are more attractively priced. I know I do business with the land of OZ when price gets below .85 to the dollar. Now that China will be slowing down on its purchases the AUD will settle into a different range and its products will be better priced for the rest of the world to buy.
  • New Comment
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.14.90
Join FF
  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Jul 12, 2013 8:11am
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Medium Impact Breaking News
    Comments: 59  /  Views: 12,539