A Misconception Believed by Millions | Forex Factory

A Misconception Believed by Millions | Forex Factory

A Misconception Believed by Millions

From dailyfx.com

Despite widespread government and central bank intervention in the financial markets, price action in the dollar index and commodities show that long-standing relationships are still just as reliable today as ever before. While stories about a “new era” of trading and investing have been common in the press and on the Internet over the past couple of years, we disagree with their logic. While we certainly are in an economic environment where central bankers wield much influence, we feel that “this time” is really no different than any other market cycle that has played out over the previous 75 years. It still ... (full story)

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Jul 6, 2013 9:24pm

@Kong: No offense, but if you're going to come out with bold trade calls like that, and they fail (laser sharp short term technical trade system?) expect to get some heat. Running off with your tail between your legs is one way to deal with it. Losing the "I am a pro and you people are noobs" attitude is another way to deal with it. It's your choice, of course.

Jul 5, 2013 8:05pm

Hi Jay,

I am a big fan of your articles but I have to take exception to one of your points here. The USD does not always depreciate during times of global growth.

The second half of the 1990's (95-99) is a prime example.

But thanks for all the thought provoking articles. Have a terrific weekend.

Jul 5, 2013 11:38pm

Great and simple article. Mr kong is way too much a fundamentalist for my taste. Its just poor timing to be shorting usd. There is no catalyst telling me to do that right this second. Your looking at too big of a picture to justify all your usd shorts.....including the ones you made back on june 24. Anyhow, you have a vouch with only 72 posts and no trade evidence on trade explorers? Silly.

Jul 5, 2013 11:50pm

Quoting Forex Kong

Disliked

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...cle4732629.ece

Investments in infrastructure don't give a shit about " the common opinions of people"........it's all about money , money , money.

The article above doesn't even scratch the surface. This one should open some eyes to the macro "consumer wave" coming from both India and China.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40506.html

Ignored

At the end of the day, it's about growing my account, the next trade setup. Interesting articles, but that's all they are.....interesting. But i'm not going to base my next trade on this type of information. My time, energy, and worries are reserved for my next trade. These articles are noise. The forex market does not care for such articles....only information that moves prices in the instant.....not for "ifs" or "maybe" two years from now....that is silly.

Jul 6, 2013 8:20am

Quoting Forex Kong

Disliked

Yes of course it's about growing your account - why else would we be doing this right?

The thing is.....as you progress as a trader, and come to realize that the true noise is what you are actually attempting to trade ( let me guess - a 5 minute time frame with absolutely no grasp of the fundamentals) and that it's pointless, and that the "real money" is in a long term approach and nothing "but" the fundamentals!

Short term tech trading is a large part of my trading too - but it's guided by the fundamentals. Picking up pennies at a time...

Ignored

Yep, thanks for confirming you have no idea what you are talking about........now i know why the call the canadian dollar the "loonie"

Jul 6, 2013 9:38am

"allowing 95% retail traders with less than 50k in their account to just do the work for them."

It's been shown time and again that approximately 30% of retail forex traders are profitable.

If you're going to prop yourself up by making fun of retail traders, which is a standard play for wanna be "pros", you should at least try to quote factual data.

Jul 6, 2013 10:19am

Im in the losing end of it, but at least i have the balls to post all my shit on trade explorers.....my live account....no demo.....i started as a fundamentalist (emphasis added) and now a pure technicalist (great month not to mention this past week)....fundamentals will never tell you which way the price is going to go....anyone on here who has been trading not very long can tell you that.....but your insistence on such is is overwhelmingly ludicrous....especially someone who hypes himself up as a commercial trader

Jul 6, 2013 3:36pm

Quoting Forex Kong

Disliked

Well at least u recognize where you're at with it, and I do encourage you to ask around to find a professional trader who "doesn't" trade off the fundamentals.

You see with an account as small as yours you are "unable" to use fundamental analysis because a stop greater than 200 pips would wipe you out.

If you start looking at weekly charts you'll soon realize that 200 pips isn't even a wiggle when you book 8 and 900 pip trades over time.

As well - you don't have to sit and count candles all day long either... which is also nice. It's...

Ignored

Again, you seem to be missing the point. All markets move in cycles (are you going to disagree with that?) for you to lay down your money on a counter trend and continue to do so because you claim to have enough equity to absorb such a trade and in your core belief on fundamentals. That is not smart trading but just silly. However, let me go along with your theory. Eventually, depending on how much the trend drifted away from your trade, the market may as well move back and perhaps your trade then will realize into a profit. Six months could have easily passed by. It is absurd how you link your profitable trade at that point to fundamentals.....just absurd. It is the norm of the market...cycles. Fundamentals played no part on that winning trade. And lastly, why you would even want to go counter trend when you could have been making money along with the trend at that time is dumbfounding. I don't get you bro.

Jul 6, 2013 11:56pm

"Hilarious....you guys can't phathom a 100 pip swing cuz you've never been in a trade long enough to see one...without shitting your pants."

So you are the shit because you banked a 100 pip swing and assume no one else here has? You're a laughing stock. I banked 73 pips on Friday....does that count for anyting in your book? I have my shit posted on trade explorers. Where is your shit? There are a lot on here who talk a lot about trades and theories, yet, never show their trades.

"Now if you had a clue about the fundamentals - you'd be able to ride much larger waves, and finally move out of yer mom's basement."

Fundamentals? What role fundamentals played in usd/nzd moving between support and resistance? Since we are children, can you explain this to me like I'm a two year old (with some sense). I would really appreciate it.

Jul 6, 2013 7:36pm

Quoting BaitUp

Disliked

And also why we built that wall on the Mexican border. Still panhandling for vouchers I see (Ill-b-back tossed him one) Can't wait for LG to see "Kongs" statement "and that the "real money" is in a long term approach and nothing "but" the fundamentals!" Gonna be fireworks! I'm betting on LG!

Ignored

LOL.. me too,can't wait to see the fireworks

Hey kong, intro yourself to my bestfriend "loadedgun" when he is back.. he is very nice and you will have nice conversation with him.. maybe he will like you more than spready! *fundamental is nothing not nothing but fundamental*

Jul 5, 2013 9:56pm

you are comical mr. kong

Jul 5, 2013 8:36pm

A macro story that few of these fellows are aware of is that current and "coming" expansion in India ( with massive inflows of investment capital from China) over the coming years will continue to support the need/prices for commodities. In fact - we will soon see massive upward pressure as macro global expansion "is" on the rise - despite a near term "perceived slow down".

The charts and correlation with USD and Copper have been the same "forever" but what's not being considered is that "the world" isn't!

Global efforts to diversify "out" of USD as a reserve, as well trade "outside of the american dollar", coupled with impending "chaos" in America (as debt levels balloon) will ultimately contribute to the demise of USD as the worlds reserve.

It's not a matter of "if" this is happening - its only a matter of "how quickly".

I'd have to bet a couple habanero's that the author is American, and has likely never even left his own home town / back yard.

Jul 5, 2013 10:07pm

Quoting Forex Kong

Disliked

A macro story that few of these fellows are aware of is that current and "coming" expansion in India ( with massive inflows of investment capital from China) over the coming years will continue to support the need/prices for commodities. In fact - we will soon see massive upward pressure as macro global expansion "is" on the rise - despite a near term "perceived slow down".

The charts and correlation with USD and Copper have been the same "forever" but what's not being considered is that "the world" isn't!

Global efforts to diversify...

Ignored

Chinese Military leader just told India not to provoke China on the eve of India's Defence Ministry's visit to Beijing on Border Issue. Reminding India that its the only country in the world that claimed to expand its defence capability to counter Chinese's threat.

Except for a common agenda of an Asian Age, China and India remain enemies. What's is the opinion of a common Indian towards China? The only hope is for the mutual BUSINESS INTEREST to increase hopefully if China invest in India for larger good of Asia. But there also its doubtful as India is chronically fearful of Chinese. Just observe the narrative!

Jul 5, 2013 10:31pm

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/pm-invites-chinese-investments-in-infrastructure-sector/article4732629.ece

Investments in infrastructure don't give a shit about " the common opinions of people"........it's all about money , money , money.

The article above doesn't even scratch the surface. This one should open some eyes to the macro "consumer wave" coming from both India and China.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40506.html

Jul 5, 2013 10:43pm

Quoting Forex Kong

Disliked

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...cle4732629.ece

Investments in infrastructure don't give a shit about " the common opinions of people"........it's all about money , money , money.

The article above doesn't even scratch the surface. This one should open some eyes to the macro "consumer wave" coming from both India and China.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40506.html

Ignored

Ok. Fine with the report on the projections.

But I found it funny for India to expect Investment from China in Infrastructure to develop India. China-Pak nuclear deal is going on. India has nuclear deal with Russia, US, Japan and Korea. Once India has deal on nuclear with China, then you can start expecting your expectation on INVESTMENT. Coz' by that time the TRUST is established.

BTW will you put your money at your enemy's hand!

As for commodity, especially gold is not fundamentally related. Gold's price has been driven down by speculator when the physical demands still persist. You will soon see a bull phase again in maybe 6 months time as it has almost bottom. Consider that Gold at 1200 is trading around the mining's production cost of about $1180 per ounce.

Jul 6, 2013 7:29am

Yes of course it's about growing your account - why else would we be doing this right?

The thing is.....as you progress as a trader, and come to realize that the true noise is what you are actually attempting to trade ( let me guess - a 5 minute time frame with absolutely no grasp of the fundamentals) and that it's pointless, and that the "real money" is in a long term approach and nothing "but" the fundamentals!

Short term tech trading is a large part of my trading too - but it's guided by the fundamentals. Picking up pennies at a time trading for -10 pips might buy you a new skateboard sure......

But trading the fundamentals gets you the beach house.

Jul 6, 2013 8:05am

Hi BoringIsGood,
Great name! The late 90's which you referred to was the Russian financial crisis and the Asian contagion which left America relatively unscathed but caused a serious global contraction, and Dollar strength.

Jul 6, 2013 8:22am

On a personal level - you bet, and that will likely never change.

It's interesting, here in Mexico and more specific the area I live in - there is a considerable amount of investment / land / business ownership by Italians.

My local mexican friends have their "feelings" about that too, but oddly would favor working for the Italian rather than the "gringo".

You could forget about them working for a Chinese owner all together.

When living in Costa Rica, if you called a CR gal a "nica" ( as to be from Nicaragua ) - major,major insult.

Of the 8 countries I've lived in over the past 15 years, I've seen more "racial / prejudice" on these smaller "local levels" than I had ever really imagined.

Try being a tall blue eyed Canadian in Spain for example - no one would rent me a hotel room!

And those years in Colombia - wow...not exactly "welcomed" in some places for sure.

Jul 6, 2013 8:31am

Ok Jagon - you must be right.

All the central banks, and regional banks ( exchanging money all day ) and corporations ( converting funds for payroll at foreign offices ) large funds , investment banks , carry traders etc - are all huddled over their laptops each day with some "out of the box" EA or indicator on their charts looking to grab -12 pips at a time then right?

Please.

And the big brokers don't have to do much short term either as they just place trades directly against you as soon as yours hits the system - allowing 95% retail traders with less than 50k in their account to just do the work for them.

You know that right?- Your broker trades against you? And placing those "default stop -25 pips here" is even smarter - as they just run them. You of course showing them exactly what you're doing.

But again you must be right - I have no idea what Im talking about.

Fun stuff here at FF so far. Ugh.

i need to get vouched so I can start a real thread.

Jul 6, 2013 9:30am

Quoting jagonzalez

Disliked

Yep, thanks for confirming you have no idea what you are talking about........now i know why the call the canadian dollar the "loonie"

Ignored

And also why we built that wall on the Mexican border. Still panhandling for vouchers I see (Ill-b-back tossed him one) Can't wait for LG to see "Kongs" statement "and that the "real money" is in a long term approach and nothing "but" the fundamentals!" Gonna be fireworks! I'm betting on LG!

Jul 6, 2013 11:29am

Well at least u recognize where you're at with it, and I do encourage you to ask around to find a professional trader who "doesn't" trade off the fundamentals.

You see with an account as small as yours you are "unable" to use fundamental analysis because a stop greater than 200 pips would wipe you out.

If you start looking at weekly charts you'll soon realize that 200 pips isn't even a wiggle when you book 8 and 900 pip trades over time.

As well - you don't have to sit and count candles all day long either... which is also nice. It's the timy time frames which are noise - forex turns take weeks if not months to fully develop.

Jul 6, 2013 1:34pm

Tidbits from Donkey Kong:

6/28/13 "At this level USD is a sell "literally" today" OOPPPSSS

"the trade is long EUR/USD at these levels - no question, USD is set to reverse" YEA....NO question....LOL!

" I rarely trade "counter trend" as I am a fundamental trader at the root of it" OOOPPPSSS...USD trend is UP

"I look at the big picture almost exclusively - in order to best frame shorter term trade ideas. Without a strong grasp of the fundamentals, and knowledge of the longer term driving factors behind a currency move - most traders ( even great one's ) ..." BLA BLA BLA....

6/30/13 "I am so short USD right now it's scary. my short term tech gives USD about 48 hours here after Sunday's open....to take a serious dive." OOOPPPPSSS

7/1/13 "Reality - there is no recovery, unemployment will increase , USD will create currency crisis and rescession will continue - worse that it's already been. OOOPPPSSS

"the Fed will likley DOUBLE it's QE efforts" Yea right....LOL!

"USD is all downhill from here, as are all things American in my view." OOPPPSSS

"I've got USD falling off a cliff here over the next few months (if not starting tomorrow)" OOOPPPSSS

7/2/13 " I've got USD heading much lower" Bye Bye Demo acct.

7/3/13 "indeed the dollar is toast. " uhhh..that's toast and marmalade to those who can actually see the trend.

"Long gbp/ usd my friend......that's the trade at hand." OOOPPPSSSS

"Im salivating short USD across the board." LOL!!!!! On your keyboard more likely.

"You'd have to be absolutely nuts to believe a single snippet of data coming out of the U.S.
Ask yourselves this: They lie about Bengazi, they lie about 9/11, then they lie about spying on their own people as well the bombing at that marathon." Get out your Tin Foil Hat! LOL!!!

DONG.......GIVE IT A REST! You were wrong by hundreds and hundreds of pips on every call. No amount of mindless blabbering nonsense and rationalization can change that. ENOUGH ALREADY!

Jul 6, 2013 2:02pm

Well one thing for sure - you sure enjoy reading me. Thanks Baitup - you're a real loyal fan, and I appreciate all the hype.

Please get out there and research my "entry strategy" - the "staggered entry strategy over time" - while you're at it.

If a single weeks action in forex had any effect on my account balance as a whole I imagine I'd be concerned. And with no possible concept of the fundamentals...oh boy - then I'd really be in trouble. Such is not the case.

There is no such thing as making "short term trade calls" when trading weekly charts......and there is no such thing as 800 pip moves when trading 15 minute snow on a blank T.V with the cable shut off. You can have it your way. Enjoy!

Jul 6, 2013 3:49pm

This will be it for you kids - pull a 4h chart of NZD/USD going back til June 20th.

Draw a line of support at 77 - then move forward tu June 26 th and draw a line of resistance at 7850 - seriously I'll do this one time for the children.

The trade has been 50 -75 pips up several times since then all the way up to July 3! And I've just added at the lows - even in the middle - who cares!

So now "wooohoooo dollar "rockets higher in the news"! - so NZD / USD falls....just to the bottom of the range! No "big story at all" - but all the while USD gettin mighty over bought no?

So what? Profits taken....profits let ride.....I've only used "entry wave 1" thus far - and have up to 5 more entries/lots and I still trade within my money management rules.

Hilarious....you guys can't phathom a 100 pip swing cuz you've never been in a trade long enough to see one...without shitting your pants.

Now if you had a clue about the fundamentals - you'd be able to ride much larger waves, and finally move out of yer mom's basement.

Cycles you bet - so big boy...where do you see USD being in its cycle?

Lets chat about the intermediate cycle to start...then get into the longer term 3 year cycles.

No need for thick skin - when you're sluggin with skinny lil college punks.

Bring it boys! Mommy's callin ya!

Jul 6, 2013 3:55pm

You continually post abject shite whilst managing to alienate yourself. Nicely done, stay classy eh?

Quoting Forex Kong

Disliked

This will be it for you kids - pull a 4h chart of NZD/USD going back til June 20th.

Draw a line of support at 77 - then move forward tu June 26 th and draw a line of resistance at 7850 - seriously I'll do this one time for the children.

The trade has been 50 -75 pips up several times since then all the way up to July 3! And I've just added at the lows - even in the middle - who cares!

So now "wooohoooo dollar "rockets higher in the news"! - so NZD / USD falls....just to the bottom of the range! No "big story at all" - but all the...

Ignored

Jul 6, 2013 4:09pm

Love it "alienate myself"- while spending these entire chats defending my trade practices.

In any case....this will certainly be the last - and I should say - I very much appreciate the warm welcome and introduction to things here at FF.

I'll search out what ever "ignore" options are available, and hopefully luck into some fellows with a little more to offer themselves, other than just those lookin to poke at the new guy.

Best of luck in the future gents, and I so appreciate all the hype! This thing is blowin up! Whatever you do - don't stop pulling and posting those Kong quotes!

Jul 5, 2013 10:33pm

And yes - Im funny as hell.

Jul 6, 2013 8:08am

Hi Forex Kong,
Thanks for your contribution. We're I Indian I'd likely prefer to work for a Western company than a Chinese one. I understand IBM has more Indian employees than Americans.

Trader#5869

Jul 6, 2013 3:11pm

Hi Jay, accustomed to you writing for seekingalpha. director of education now dude? well done! one of my first mentors had been trading since the early 80's, had a Ph D in mathematics, ran forex courses in London at a few 100,000 pounds a day, was an investment advisor on stocks, and wow did he make a big stuff up telling big audiences early 2009 that the market was headed for a great depression repeat, sucker rally then another crash. that sod probably prevented me from being retired by now. that's why I trade intraday, fast trades usually lasting less than 5 minutes (stuff kids 40 years younger me should be doing). things I have posted on ff recently and got "one fingers" for my efforts. (they won't even register me on ff, (maybe I am too dangerous)

1. USD is the strongest and safest currency to be in (talking medium term at least)
2. gold is history
3. commodities and commodity currencies are shovelled
4. "markets misunderstood Bernanke" at last FOMC speech is incorrect, bernanke misunderstands markets is correct.

At NFP (I usually make money out of trading it). I had already decided beforehand that long Dow was the direction to go, or no trade). I reckoned numbers near forecast (like last month), means QE continues, that's what the bulls are looking for. waited 2-3 seconds while the robots finished trading, and went long dow, closing out +20 pts. problem was that my platform (which has an internet connection speed indicator, looking fast at that time) closed me out at breakeven +0) about a second later. that's when the humans took over from the robots. I got mad and checked the headline numbers on ff - pretty much as expected - and went long again. I closed myself out about 100 pts down 5min later (nowhere near my platform stop).

The human traders realised do long (about 2 hours) afterwards, around 10.30 wall street time, that they had stuffed up. I went long dow again and nearly made up my losses.

so now I submit:

5. markets misunderstand markets

Jul 6, 2013 3:21pm

Wtf...

Quoting Forex Kong

Disliked

Try being a tall blue eyed Canadian in Spain for example - no one would rent me a hotel room!
.

Ignored

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Jul 5, 2013 3:50pm
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