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  • The Chart That Best Illustrates How Gold Was A Bubble

    From businessinsider.com

    The bubbles in the chart below represent the total market value of all positions in the gold futures market (open interest multiplied by price). The last time there were fewer open contracts on gold in the futures market was four years ago, when gold was trading under $1000 an ounce. What does this mean? Investor interest in gold has waned dramatically since prices peaked in 2011. The flip side of this, of course, is that seven years ago, there was nowhere near this much activity in the gold market. Miller Tabak Chief Economic Strategist Andrew Wilkinson writes today in a note to clients: The current reading of open ... (full story)

where is that gold god dude? he was always bullish on it.
Quoting jaygee
where is that gold god dude? he was always bullish on it.
You still think Gold is the bubble?
Come with me if you want to live....
it is one of them. overlay the monthly gold chart on the nasdaq y2k bubble chart and see if you see any similarities. not as big as the china bubble though.
it can go down a bit to 11xx, then go up.
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whatever goes up it comes down, it will go up again. telling where to buy and sell it is hardest. everyone can comment after the facts
look at the 1980's move. It is very similar to that move. It bounced off the 62 fib, then continued lower. if that holds this time, 800 is not impossible.
Quoting jaygee
look at the 1980's move. It is very similar to that move. It bounced off the 62 fib, then continued lower. if that holds this time, 800 is not impossible.
correct!
Quoting jaygee
look at the 1980's move. It is very similar to that move. It bounced off the 62 fib, then continued lower. if that holds this time, 800 is not impossible.
I think 800 is too undervalued for gold. Maybe the worst is around 1050... then it will go sideways and go up slowly..
im still bullish but i believe bitcoin is better for the average investor now.
Quoting jaygee
look at the 1980's move. It is very similar to that move. It bounced off the 62 fib, then continued lower. if that holds this time, 800 is not impossible.
Approaching important tech level soon.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6781100#post6781100
Come with me if you want to live....
It makes me laugh when people think gold actually moved on it's on. I'm waiting for them to lose control! They will....people aren't selling physical.
The way I see it is The range is $1000-1500 +/- $100. It can either way. I would buy if it is $1000 and sell $1500.
I posted that gold would go to about $780 before the fiscal cliff, or maybe in Jan. Gold may go back up to 1500, but it won't go higher. Either way, 780.
Play the players, not the cards.
Buy it either way....gold and silver never goes out of business....if you get physical. It's going up sometime....it will be a lot more then before when it goes. I'd guess it will be when this Syria thing explodes. Then again...nothing may be worth anything if somebody fires a nuke. You can figure out on your own what you'll need.
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Yep....that's what they say about the world of deficit's. The spying. The wars. Madness is living in fairy tale land. Reality is a better place. The trillions will disappear. Right? Madness is doing it over and over again.
regarding gold...uhh, nah, I got nothin'.
Paper = Cyprus
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  • | IP XXX.XX.22.191
tell the millions of chinese, indians and russians and their central banks that gold's in a bubble; and they weren't serious investors back in the day during those "bubbles". The disconnect between the physical and paper gold is evident. If you're not shorting XAGUSD XAUUSD and take the profits and buy the physical, then it's your loss. The Booz FX market and metals are clearly rigged but you have to know how to play it both ways!
This is rocket science. They're manipulating gold....why? They want you to put your money back in the bank....why? They're about to use it to pay off their bad bets! (plus they're going to buy it up cheap so they can give Germany their gold back...the gold they don't have!) They want everyone out of physical gold. Guess who holds your forex money....a bank. Cyprus here we come!!! Europe first....USA next....maybe both at the same time! They make bad loans, get bailed out by us....now they want our pensions and savings accounts! These people should be hung painfully! They're getting ready to clean up the derivatives. Now I'm sure gold is going back up....may not be tomorrow but it's coming. Read this! http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/27/us-eu-banks-idUSBRE95Q02L20130627
Quoting jaygee
look at the 1980's move. It is very similar to that move. It bounced off the 62 fib, then continued lower. if that holds this time, 800 is not impossible.

Hi Jaygee can you elaborate a little more ?
Bang on the money cugir321 - the price of paper gold has been equally manipulated in order to mask the massive devaluation of the U.S dollar. If gold was "allow" to reflect its "true value" in dollars right now it would be at like.....$2200.00 or so.

U.S fed is systematically fleecing investors in one market then another, forcing savers and gold buyers to seek yield in the stock market - where they can quickly be parted with their cash.

As these markets roll over - every "dumb ass" that bought stocks here at the highs will be left with nothing.

Gold will most certainly climb higher...it's only a question of "when".
I'm short humanity, and long interplanetary travel. Forexkong.kom
Quoting cugir321
This is rocket science. They're manipulating gold....why? They want you to put your money back in the bank....why? They're about to use it to pay off their bad bets! (plus they're going to buy it up cheap so they can give Germany their gold back...the gold they don't have!) They want everyone out of physical gold. Guess who holds your forex money....a bank. Cyprus here we come!!! Europe first....USA next....maybe both at the same time! They make bad loans, get bailed out by us....now they want our pensions and savings accounts! These...


We think a like ......
Interesting chart, open positions times price, never seen this before.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
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Quoting sidhujag
im still bullish but i believe bitcoin is better for the average investor now.
You're being funny right? Hey, since I'm here as "guest" how about I sell you some Guestcoins? Bitcoins are a joke with no more backing than I will gladly pay you back Friday for a hamburger today. lol

Gold I see being comfortable in a range from 850 to 950.
Cugir321 and forex kong,

Interesting thoughts and sharing.
Slowly buying gold over months and I will see what happens 6 months down the road.
Aquaman - I can say without question - if you've got the patience, and are serious about buying in small orders over a considerable amount of time ( like 6 months ) I can almost guarentee you will do absolutely fantastic looking forward.

I would still be very, very cautious in the paper market as even "Comex" is under suspicion / a candidate for fiasco/scandal moving forward - but getting that physical under your pillow will pay off longer term.
I'm short humanity, and long interplanetary travel. Forexkong.kom
Quoting Forex Kong
Aquaman - I can say without question - if you've got the patience, and are serious about buying in small orders over a considerable amount of time ( like 6 months ) I can almost guarentee you will do absolutely fantastic looking forward.

I would still be very, very cautious in the paper market as even "Comex" is under suspicion / a candidate for fiasco/scandal moving forward - but getting that physical under your pillow will pay off longer term.

You might be that guy from Canada ?...you have some good trades to show your worth but your advice is still real bad in terms of trading for you might be giving that advice since 15 and 1600 ... gold is not an investment ..i use to think like you but when it broke 1540 i knew better
Quoting jaygee
where is that gold god dude? he was always bullish on it.
sadly he had the same problems like you ......no SL and a big account...killer combination
You haven't been following very close thenFx Hiflyer - I (like a number of people) took a trade "back in November" and it went South. I lost less than my weekend beer money, and had actually done it via options so it was really just for fun.

I'm not giving advice to "trade" gold - Im suggesting that over time to "own gold" will be a fantastic investment for those who choose it.

Personally....I trade far too actively to own gold - but perhaps my grandparents might!
I'm short humanity, and long interplanetary travel. Forexkong.kom
If you think gold was a "Bubble", just wait until Obamacare is fully implemented in 2014 along with the amnesty bill for illegal aliens. The last price spike at $1900+ will look like a bargain compared with what's to come. Oh and the Fed tapering off the money printing won't help either - that's the only thing maintaining the illusion of a growing economy.

As soon as I see a confirmed bottom to the current pullback in gold I'll be adding more to my portfolio. Real gold that is - not the paper 3-card monte version.
Quoting Forex Kong
You haven't been following very close thenFx Hiflyer - I (like a number of people) took a trade "back in November" and it went South. I lost less than my weekend beer money, and had actually done it via options so it was really just for fun.

I'm not giving advice to "trade" gold - Im suggesting that over time to "own gold" will be a fantastic investment for those who choose it.

Personally....I trade far too actively to own gold - but perhaps my grandparents might!

lol.... i know you are smart enough not to lose a fortune on one trade so no problems there but buying physical since 1500 was no good for a lot of people...some people i know bought silver..they are so screwed now......when someone asks me i tell them to wait for 950 850 to start buying physical...if it gets that far then good..if it doesn't then hard luck...
as a trader i like to ride small waves and even trends and not worry about such long distances and i am sure same is the case with you
I look at the big picture almost exclusively - in order to best frame shorter term trade ideas.

Without a strong grasp of the fundamentals, and knowledge of the longer term driving factors behind a currency move - most traders ( even great one's ) realize the charts will only get you so far on their own.

What's important is to find what works for you - and go for it!
I'm short humanity, and long interplanetary travel. Forexkong.kom
[quote=Forex Kong;6782919]I look at the big picture almost exclusively - in order to best frame shorter term trade ideas.


of course looking at the bigger picture is the key but you are an expert in the matter and normal retailers can't make out anything out of fundamentals and i don't blame them.........and these linear approaches (fundamentals and technical ) provide nothing more than a hit and miss situation

As far as i am concerned i ignore all noise ...and when trading..keep all the market moving variables aside and look for direction daily and weekly with the help of a more accurate approach than the linear methods that have not helped me one little bit timing my trades or providing direction...i don't know how you roll but on this site you will mostly find retailers trading for peanuts who like trading with a tight SL ...no ONE situation in europe or usa will tell you what to do with the pair on a particular day or week or month...it doesn't work that way and i am sure you know all of this...i hope i am getting my point through ..

do contribute more to this forum..it will be nice to have you around..........happy trading...cheers
Sounds good Fx Hiflyer!

Yes I do get the impression that many here are short term (time frame) traders.

My tech does great on the short term "in's and out's" only after I've got my longer term trade concepts and ideas in place.

I trade full time for a living, and hope that maybe I can contribute to helping some newcomers getting started.
I'm short humanity, and long interplanetary travel. Forexkong.kom
Quoting Forex Kong
Bang on the money cugir321 - the price of paper gold has been equally manipulated in order to mask the massive devaluation of the U.S dollar. If gold was "allow" to reflect its "true value" in dollars right now it would be at like.....$2200.00 or so.

U.S fed is systematically fleecing investors in one market then another, forcing savers and gold buyers to seek yield in the stock market - where they can quickly be parted with their cash.

As these markets roll over - every "dumb ass" that bought stocks here at the highs will be left with...
meanwhile the duumbasses buying into a trend win and u keep losing money catching falling knives go figure
Time to go long gold after the end of this month
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ok here's my forecast. Down to 1150, bounce to 1300. Down to 1050, bounce to 1150. Float between thoses two for a while then possibly down to 800/900 level, then everyone will buy. If It doesn't break the 1000 level by Oct/Nov it will begin next bull phase end of this year. Copy this, put it in your documents folder and open at Xmas. Lets see if i'm right.....
Timing is more important than the price, no need to focus on the price just on time only.
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  • | IP XX.XX.176.193
Oh - in addition to the above comment - the 45% correction in the 70's - which is something a few people are comparing this correction to - translates to 1060ish from the peak of 2011.

Also - Goldman Sachs forecast 800 by end of this year - and we all know they throw bull***t around to mislead the outsiders.. I'd be surprised if gold goes below 1000 looking at the chart. There's a nice pivot point there, and 1000 is a big psychological level. That's where I'll buy physical.
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  • | IP XX.XX.176.193
Quoting yaphets
Timing is more important than the price, no need to focus on the price just on time only.
I think they are both important.
Quoting Guest
Oh - in addition to the above comment - the 45% correction in the 70's - which is something a few people are comparing this correction to - translates to 1060ish from the peak of 2011.

Also - Goldman Sachs forecast 800 by end of this year - and we all know they throw bull***t around to mislead the outsiders.. I'd be surprised if gold goes below 1000 looking at the chart. There's a nice pivot point there, and 1000 is a big psychological level. That's where I'll buy physical.
I think the bearish correction in the 80's was more like 64%. 835 to 300. then it took 20 years to continue its bubblishious bullish move
It's seems almost inconceivable to me that we can draw on historical movements for future predictions when we are in unchartered waters with regards to bailouts, global debt QE etc.
It's almost as if people think all this continued QE will not have any affects.

But follow Goldman Sachs advice and keep selling for the long term if you must, it's your money...
Come with me if you want to live....
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  • | IP XX.XX.184.186
Quoting Forex Kong
Bang on the money cugir321 - the price of paper gold has been equally manipulated in order to mask the massive devaluation of the U.S dollar. If gold was "allow" to reflect its "true value" in dollars right now it would be at like.....$2200.00 or so.

U.S fed is systematically fleecing investors in one market then another, forcing savers and gold buyers to seek yield in the stock market - where they can quickly be parted with their cash.

As these markets roll over - every "dumb ass" that bought stocks here at the highs will be left with nothing.

Gold...
But there's been backwardation on physical. I don't think the whole think can play out until the price of physical balances out and comes down some....gets closer to spot. It's getting there. Then the banks can buy up the physical.....there's only so much gold out there. It's hasn't been easy to get large amounts. After that the banks can deal with the derivatives and pass the losses onto the depositers. Then explode the price of physical and make a fortune! Unless they bring down the whole world by accident....but then again they have hard money...no one else will.....they'll buy up countries. Then who knows. It won't be pretty having one of these bankers as your leader.
Quoting Forex Kong
Bang on the money cugir321 - the price of paper gold has been equally manipulated in order to mask the massive devaluation of the U.S dollar. If gold was "allow" to reflect its "true value" in dollars right now it would be at like.....$2200.00 or so.

U.S fed is systematically fleecing investors in one market then another, forcing savers and gold buyers to seek yield in the stock market - where they can quickly be parted with their cash.

As these markets roll over - every "dumb ass" that bought stocks here at the highs will be left with...
But there's been backwardation on physical. I don't think the whole thing can play out until the price of physical balances out and comes down some....gets closer to spot. It's getting there. Then the banks can buy up the physical.....there's only so much gold out there. It's hasn't been easy to get large amounts. After that the banks can deal with the derivatives and pass the losses onto the depositers. The people who sold their real gold will now be back in paper money. Then explode the price of physical and make a fortune! Unless they bring down the whole world by accident....but then again they have hard money...no one else will.....they'll buy up countries. Then who knows. It won't be pretty having one of these bankers as your leader. The fact that europe is passing a law to allow the depositers to be held responsible for bank loses tells me the end is near. The USA can already do it. The derivatives have been moved onto the bank books. I think we're on the verge of the greatest banking theft of deposited money in the history of the world. This is what Jim Rogers has been talking about when he says they're coming for your pensions now. Forex people will lose their money, the banks will go bankrupt clearing out the derivatives. And they'll smile while filing the papers. They'll have their physical gold in some holding company separate from the J.P. Morgan types. You won't get your money even if you do take the right side of a gold explosion up. I lost money in the PFG BEST theft. They closed out my positive trade. I still don't have the money. It's in bankruptcy! Only physical gold will survive and these banking/political bastards may try to confiscate it like they did in the 1930's. But at least you got something. With paper we're screwed. I wouldn't sell physical if it went to 0.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=435089
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  • Posted: Jun 26, 2013 8:32pm
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     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 46  /  Views: 8,264