There’s a well-known joke about economic forecasting. Albert Einstein reaches the pearly gates of heaven and meets three people. He asks them all for their IQ. “190”, says the first. “Oh good,” says the great man, “we can talk about general relativity”. When the second says “140”, Einstein tells him he’s looking forward to debates about the pros and cons of the nuclear deterrent. The third, peering at his feet and mumbling slightly, says “mine’s only 50”. “What will the budget deficit be next year?” I feel I’m allowed to tell this joke because my first job, at the Treasury, was in a team responsible for forecasting ... (full story)