Broadbent: Forecast errors

This is the typical blindness of forecasters. Maybe they get it wrong because they are youngsters. It was the first government-induced housing crash that I remember, and I particularly remember the part where Lawson said "...so I shall give 6 months grace before implementing this". There followed the most massive stampede to buy houses that I have ever seen, scrambling to get a completion before the 6 months deadline. The result? A huge increase in money supply, a massive balance of trade deficit, searing interest rates for over a year as the government used its only blunt instrument of the day to dissuade people from taking credit. ...too late! The UK had manufactured its own sub-prime catastrophe.

And so to the noughties. Housing prices globally blasting through the roof, 100% mortgages available to anyone who promised to repay them. Wanton over-leveraging by people buying to let. Gordon Clown presiding - he was in opposition at the last catastrophe, learned nothing it seems. Around 2005 people were starting to say "there must be a crash soon". The strange aspect this time was that employment was holding-up strongly - until the mortgages were removed (thanks Lehman et al.). We are living the aftermath.

....of course the Queen wanted to know why nobody saw it coming!
Obviously she had not heard that Gordon fecking Clown had abolished boom and bust! ( ...his words... )

Wassup? Spreadbutter not biting anymore?
I think your needle is stuck, get yourself a pat on the back.

Hello Jay, it has been a while since our last exchange, I hope you are well etc.
Professional traders are always forecasting, otherwise they would never open a position. The difference between traders and those whose job it is to forecast is that a trader knows (s)he may be wrong and has a contingency plan.

I'm guessing you're quite young hence your silly and immature description of Gordon Brown, who handled the UK finances and economy impeccably until the crash which was caused by USA investment banks.

If you insist on baseless Daily Mail style rants then you should expect some critique.

This data blog from The Guardian illustrates who inherited deficits and shows when the govt spend increased on a parabolic tangent and why. It kills any argument with regards to Brown's supposed profligacy.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/oct/18/deficit-debt-government-borrowing-data

professional traders don't forecast, they go w/ the flow of price which is a reflection of everythng the market knows about itself