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Weekly Technical Strategist
EURUSD: Turns Below The 1.3681/88 levels EURUSD-EUR broke below its 4 hourly rising channel, halting its recent upside gains to close the week below its late April’07/Dec’04 highs at 1.3681/68 on Friday.This is its first weekly negative close since the it embarked on its upside journey off the 1.3262 low in Jun’07.With EUR now below the mentioned area and daily studies now out of overbought and heading lower, potential for lower prices are likely. In such a case, the 1.3626/00 zone, the location of its daily 50 ema/psycho level/May’7 highs will be targeted initially and then a cluster of support at 1.3555/34 which marks its .50 Ret (1.3262-1.3851 rally)/May 04’07/April 19, 24 & 23’07 lows. A break below there will bring additional losses towards 1.8486/84,its .618 Ret/daily 200 ema followed by the 1.3385/63 levels, its .782 Ret/Jun 21’07 low/Dec’06 high. Alternatively, bullish evidence will begin to unfold on a push back above the 1.3681/68 zone which if sustained sets the stage for a run at the 1.3771 level,its Jul 26’07 high ahead of the 1.3851 level,its 2007 peak. Beyond there is required to resume its medium term uptrend. On the whole, while the pair remains pressured in the short term to the downside, its longer term bias still points to upside. Directional Bias: Nearer Term –Bearish Short Term -Bearish Medium Term -Bullish Performance in %: Past Week: -1.35% Past Month: +0.65% Past Quarter: +1.39% Year-To-Date: +3.34% Weekly Range: High -1.3851 Low -1.3630 GBPUSD: Weakens Below Rising Trendline. GBPUSD-GBP posted its first weekly downside losses on Friday, breaking below its ST rising trendline dating back to Jun 14’07 to close the week at 2.0253.This development has produced a bearish engulfing candle pattern (top reversal signal) and also pushed the daily RSI and stochastics below the overbought zone suggesting that the said weakness has more to go. The first downside objective on further weakness lies at the 2.0205/19 area, its July 04’07 high/1.272 Fib Ext.(Monthly chart) which coincides with its daily 50 ema at 2.0140 before the 2.0132 level set in April’07.The latter must hold to preserve the pair’s medium term uptrend ignited above the said level in early July’07.If it is taken out, downside losses are expected towards 2.0059/72 levels, its April 25/26’07/May 01’07 high and possibly lower. On the other hand, upside targets are seen at the 2.0361/64 levels, its July 11/12’07 highs and the 2.0425, its 1.618 Fib Ext.Above there aims at its 2007 high at 2.0652 and then the 2.0770 area, its weekly rising channel top. All in all, although the pair remains under pressure in the short term, as long as it continues to hold above 2.0132 level and trade within its weekly rising channel odds are for it to challenge higher prices Directional Bias: Nearer Term -Bearish Short Term -Bearish Medium Term -Bullish Performance in %: Past Week: -1.49% Past Month: +1.49% Past Quarter: +2.09 % Year-To-Date: +3.37% Weekly Range: High -2.0652 Low -2.0249 USDJPY: Continues To Face Downside Pressure USDJPY-Since failing at the 124.13 level, its year-to-date high in late Jun’07, the pair had struggled to maintain above the 122.13 zone, its Jan 29’07 high but failed and subsequently collapsed to a three-month plus low of 118.01 on Friday. The pair now faces both downside price momentum as well as weekly bearish signals as evidenced by the stochastics and RSI indicators. In order for this scenario to play out,a clean break below its weekly rising channel base at 118.15 is required to accelerate downside losses towards 117.07, its .782 Ret(115.14-121.18 rally).Further support levels are located at 116.37,its Mar 28 low followed by its Mar 05’07 low at 115.14.However,if its weekly channel base contains the present downside pressure supported by oversold condition on the daily time frame, a recovery off there should push the pair higher towards 119.63/86,its .50 Ret/daily 200 ema/April 16’07 high. An invalidation of this zone opens the door for additional up gains targeting its May 03 & 10’07 highs/Jun 07’07 low at 120.46/77 ahead of its Jun 13’07 low at 121.48 and then the 122.13 zone, its Jan 29’07 high. A stronger resistance resides at 124.13, its 2007 high. On the whole, as long as USDJPY remains within its weekly rising channel its longer term trend points to the upside. Directional Bias: Nearer Term -Bearish Short Term -Bearish Medium Term -Mixed Performance in %: Past Week: -2.05% Past Month: +1.7% Past Quarter: +4.56% Year-To-Date: -0.26% Weekly Range: High -121.68 Low -118.01 This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of FXTechstrategy.com own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which FXTechstrategy.com incurs any responsibility. 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