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  • EUR/USD Forecast January 7-11

    From forexcrunch.com

    EUR/USD retreated in the first week of 2013, after another attempt to break higher evolved into a downfall. The fiscal cliff deal boost proved temporary after the Fed showed less dovishness. The focus shifts to Europe, with an all-important rate decision as well as employment data. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now at lower ground. US politicians managed to avert the fiscal cliff, but set the ground for another crisis in two months time: the initial market cheer was also hit by Fed’s meeting minutes: is the central bank willing to ease the ... (full story)

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  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 5:51am Jan 6, 2013 5:51am
  •  John Gray
  • | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: NZ Trader | 84 Comments
Consider AB=CD Pattern on the Euro Dollar.

Retrace to 1.312X approx, before the continuation of our new downtrend.

Another supporting TA tool is EW theory, ABC downward move with B-wave correction ready to take place.
 
 
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 6:33am Jan 6, 2013 6:33am
  •  JamZ115
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trade nice | 9 Comments
what does it mean.???
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 7:05am Jan 6, 2013 7:05am
  •  fx_forever
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Member | 10 Comments
Great.

EURUSD seems actually following a 25 pips grid size.

Major resistance = R1=1.3300
Major support = S1=1.3000
Major support = S2=1.2875

Major resistance now is R2=1.3125 - From there it can break up again (it has formed higher low) to R1 or down to S1/S2 (contraction with lower high / second 'shoulder' after the 'head').

Put all that on a H4 graph and you will see the past bat that ends at S2. Great animals.
 
 
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 10:53am Jan 6, 2013 10:53am
  •  majus33
  • | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Member | 164 Comments
Open Daily , write trendline from 27.07.... We have to wait for breaking down
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:47pm Jan 6, 2013 12:47pm
  •  Mike Haran
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2010 | 699 Comments
Have to say with Yohay bearish we might see some move higher although he might have made a new Years resolution not to mess up we will see.
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:57pm Jan 6, 2013 12:57pm
  •  cjbooth
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Member | 79 Comments
I'm not buying in to the Bearish sentiment yet. The market moves and respects S&R levels. Barring any market shaking news notice the last bar the daily chart. Yes it closed below a trend line but S&R is more important than trend lines in my opinion. This last bar hit 3000 and closed off of it - look at the support levels at this level to the left, I would think again without market shaking news the likely move is back to resistance in the 3130-3180 area and then how the market acts there will determine bull or bear mood
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 1:17pm Jan 6, 2013 1:17pm
  •  Loadedgun
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2010 | 3,678 Comments
It never fails to offend me every time a move is tied up to some event as if this was known to be true in absolute terms. If this was correct the market would be random and never trend. It is not true but how do you get people to be honest about their knowledge of the market?
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 1:40pm Jan 6, 2013 1:40pm
  •  jonahky7
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 4,530 Comments
Not too convince at the mo that we may see a ABCD down, rather I do see a possible strong candle popping North.

ACB shorted parasite to trigger an algo line, if traders had paid attention to the the candle ripples which has a resemblence of algo trigger. So becareful as .3055/85 is a line of traps - unless the confluence support .3041 is broken again then I'll consider another ABCD down.

.3128/37 had been monthly and weekly pivot for at least 3 times now - so if a strong candle is seen up there then hold shorts, otherwise one knows what to trade, ie long.

Just hope there ain't sideways! Go go and let's see who's printing is faster, BOJ (empty talks so far), FED or ECB....

Hey Mike, how's Christmas??
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 2:11pm Jan 6, 2013 2:11pm
  •  gigiyoffee
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: Member | 4 Comments
How about the daily range? How wide do you think it will be?
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 2:37pm Jan 6, 2013 2:37pm
  •  jonahky7
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 4,530 Comments
Quoting gigiyoffee
Disliked
How about the daily range? How wide do you think it will be?
Ignored
U asking me?

I used the 4 harmonics in H1 for last week down, 20-30pips pop (north) and 40-60pips poop (south).

If trend is reversing or at least reversing, I will be using the same methodology and closely monitoring .3128/37 resistance line. So watch it. Market is opening for a swing tomorrow in London so it may be a bit choppy before a clear trend appears but the indications is quite obvious for the moment.

People yacking 1.32 and 1.22 - which then do you think we will hit first

For me I take my first offer. .3055/85 will be a line to content for, so if you are unsure stay clear until it's clear to trade. I mentioned ABCD and hate it when the price action is in BC region, very grey but nothing stopping u to scalp (if u are looking at your indicators, use M1 n M15 for scalping n quick exit)
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 3:48pm Jan 6, 2013 3:48pm
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.16.122
helov to awl..em new to ds trading stuff...em thoroughly checkin yer comments n seeking some knowledge..ll sme1 leme kno dat howz market gona move..means in a bearish channel or a bullish n y?
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2013 4:09pm Jan 6, 2013 4:09pm
  •  jaygee
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2010 | 2,713 Comments
euro going lower. weekly divergence. might get a short term pop. hasn't lost the daily tl yet but this week it should.
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Jan 7, 2013 11:18am Jan 7, 2013 11:18am
  •  Mike Haran
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2010 | 699 Comments
Yohay called the low, he is the best
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Jan 7, 2013 11:38am Jan 7, 2013 11:38am
  •  jonahky7
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 4,530 Comments
Quoting Mike Haran
Disliked
Yohay called the low, he is the best
Ignored
Maybe he was hoping for an ECB rate cut this Thursday.......
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Jan 7, 2013 5:15pm Jan 7, 2013 5:15pm
  •  Mike Haran
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2010 | 699 Comments
No he is golden Jonahky I swear he beats all my analysis hands down
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Jan 7, 2013 5:53pm Jan 7, 2013 5:53pm
  •  Squeeze
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Member | 1,195 Comments
Most of us in this industry are stopped clocks right twice a day. It's a danger to confuse or place too much credence in predictions.

Quoting Mike Haran
Disliked
Yohay called the low, he is the best
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Jan 8, 2013 8:45am Jan 8, 2013 8:45am
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.169.92
EUR/USD tested high. Time to crash. looking at 29.00 atleast.
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:30am Jan 15, 2013 2:30am
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.115.226
Hi everyone; I don’t like to comment on these chats really, as they are of very little to no use at all… it is like listening to people at a soccer game, you have to know if the person talking was a champion himself and played in a professional team before, before we could benefit from the persons ‘advice or comments…

now in trading it is the same, and I will quickly try to tell you why:
From a technical price action point of view: price actions evidently are valued by the vertical rise and fall of the price, now if we add a time factor in like; how did it do over the last day, week, month, year or so, you will see that the person who considers the last months ‘price actions for his calculations will not have the same opinion as the person who considers the last 24hours’ price actions to make his order decision.

Now to complicate it a little more, one person might see all he wants to see on a 30min chart and the other on an end of day chart, they will either undoubtedly have different opinions too.

One more point, trend is dependent on time… if you take the time factor out, no one would be able to determine a trend…

So!!! If I would comment on what I would suggest to be the best order for the moment, I need to refer to a specific time cycle in both my considerations as well as my forecast first and then…

I studied investment science and I can out of experience tell you, that the best traders are not the ones who predict trades, but the ones that know how to react to a situation after recalculated evaluations have been made…

Happy trading guys!
 
 
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.52.135
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Jan 6, 2013 5:21am
  • Submitted by:
     Yohay
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 18  /  Views: 6,966
  • Linked events:
    EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
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    EUR German Trade Balance
    EUR German Industrial Production m/m
    EUR German Factory Orders m/m
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    EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
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