Speculators Start The New Year By Turning Their EUR Bets Into Net Longs

My cycle analysis would conclude that indeed a turn was due on the 17th December, it came in on the 19th. This is possibly the move to add into and run for a while possibly till at least the end of January. My strategy would be to add into rallies upwards and cash out towards the end of the month.

I will be starting a site with my analysis on this month and everyone is welcome to have a look at my predictions of future turn dates.

Happy New Year to you all.


Mike Haran

The article contradicts to the move of the market. If they net long why Euro fall like a rock? If they dump dollar, why dollar shoot up like never been
as such before? This article is not reliable.

short on rally

Yet looking at statics I have 1.31222 as the next key level and a price point which if price fails to break and close above comfortably we should see a trip down to 1.27/26. So the issue for me now is what happens at this immediate key level (or thereabouts) ahead.

My calculations are that the pair has only a 5% chance of breaking out above the pivot ahead. Therefore I would say at this point that there is a high chance of seeing some strong selling until about mid month or so. Therefore 1.35/1.4 appears delayed at this stage but not off the radar by any means.

But we shall see - since my approach depends on live feed to update my take on statics. But it is a rare day that I do not know ahead what the best play is or should be. Best of the trades to all.

It must be time to sell then, is it not?

Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2013 4:50 PM EST
EURUSD (H1) SELL 3.0 trade was closed at 1.30543 Open price was: 1.32701 Open time: 2013.01.02 08:04
Ticket: xxxx
Profit/Loss: 215.8 pips

So, I guess if your swing trading or position trading the euro/usd we are expecting it to fly up along with the large speculators?

Loadedgun,
I have to agree w/ you again.

If only it was that simple to interpret and act on the lagging cot report we'd all be trillionaires

I agree, however retraces/corrections can be agressive mices also.

USD index smacked against 80.74 resistance and came back down significantly on Friday.

Euro snuck back under 3050 support, making it briefly resistance and closed back above it on Friday (support).

If the bullish Euro H&S plays out, we can reach 1.42 area.

If the bearish USD index monthly H&S plays plays out...

Just my own observation.

I have had to reconsider my bearish take on the Euro based on a sudden spike down of the VIX - at current levels the opportunity cost of selling or risk changes. If the current reading is truly the market speaking (and not some of the many whipsaws that indicator can unleash) I have to plan now based on a far higher probability of moving up than I previously allowed. The earlier read of my charts without the current rate of the VIX factored in gave a slim chance for a sustained upside - but that was with the previous rate of the VIX indicator. If the VIX is reliable this time (and it can be funny sometimes) then the current reading changes the balance of forces in my opinion (or more correctly clarifies the balance of forces). So looking closely now at events around 1.31222. Clearly the biggest sell off indication for me would be failure even before that level. But a break and close above that level would imply strong buying marked by strong market sentiment - that is very strong sentiment - the VIX.

I have posted a chart here for all to see, this is what I think the EURUSD will be doing and when

http://www.facebook.com/index.php#!/photo.php?fbid=427447587326923&set=a.145157995555885.36292.100001850562549&type=1&theater

Mike Haran

do you have any positions open??

i think you are confused because the manipulated market is searching for stoplosses and the price indicators on your chart won't tell you that