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  • Moody's downgrades France to Aa1 from Aaa, maintains negative outlook

    From moodys.com

    Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded France's government bond rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa. The outlook remains negative. Today's rating action follows Moody's decision on 23 July 2012 to change to negative the outlooks on the Aaa ratings of Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. At the time, Moody's also announced that it would assess France's Aaa sovereign rating and its outlook, which had been changed to negative on 13 February 2012, to determine the impact of the elevated risk of a Greek exit from the euro area, the growing likelihood of collective support for other euro area sovereigns and ... (full story)

anyway, it will pull back!!!
lost.....
moody's want to get some insider profits, the trend is resisting.
great
EUR news are less focused than USD news at this point
how long down now?
Smells of strong insider trading and these peolpe can get away with it!!! LOL

Had thought the 44bln will buy Greece some fat juicy lucy olives for sometime - now it's Hollandes turn and I believe I yack a lot about Holland but seriously did not think it would come so early - a big fat christmas present for the socialist twat

This is going to poop big!
Giving these news in low volatility period... brilliant....
Told you france is getting effed... Germany is the only one on top in EU.... france is gonna fall after spain.
Imagine if you knew when these idiots would release a news release, "right you idiots, short EU 1000 lots right now, we're gonna say this or say that, or downgrade them in a few minutes.."
Quoting Sebastien972
Giving these news in low volatility period... brilliant....
what is the tactic behind this decision?
Quoting GDR3k
Imagine if you knew when these idiots would release a news release, "right you idiots, short EU 1000 lots right now, we're gonna say this or say that, or downgrade them in a few minutes.."
If only I can work in Moody or S&P but definitely wont want to work at Noob-gan Stanley.

LOL
Germany is the only one that is truly ready for a federation! All others will have to adapt!!
it's cooling down, I'm gonna long
Quoting rootkit
it's cooling down, I'm gonna long
Good Idea
Moscovici: “French Govmt debt remains among the most liquid and solid in the Euro zone”
Mon, Nov 19 2012, 22:36 GMT | Forex Live
Guys

I think the EUR is heading for a bad day

i would short the EUR, i think the only thing that may pick up the EUR is a deal for Greece, otherwise the EUR is going down down down
Sure must be nice being in that insider circle.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.1.174
going long on a down trend is not a good idea.
Quoting haythame78
Guys

I think the EUR is heading for a bad day

i would short the EUR, i think the only thing that may pick up the EUR is a deal for Greece, otherwise the EUR is going down down down
if you must stick to this i"ll advice you always remember SL. you never can tell
Euro going down
Probably noise, w8 for 2nd hit at 1,2770 and decide, probably buy...
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.159.54
That came out of nowhere
it's pulling back. so the results is: Moody's got insider profit, people who follow them immediately will take loss...
AA1 still consider a good rating standard. Consider US bonds are also rate at AA1.
Quoting rootkit
it's pulling back. so the results is: Moody's got insider profit, people who follow them immediately will take loss...
isint that suppose to be illegal?
  •  armin_ray
  • | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: медлено - но уверенР| 24 Comments
I think today eur will be bullish, and pivot point is at 1.2710.
I should have followed my elemental trader signal to short EURUSD at the nick of time. Well, there is already a pull back, however, my question is, how do we plan against such sudden sharp move in the market outside forexfactory radder
Entering here in any kind of position is utterly wrong (NOTE: my opinion) w8 for the move to play itself and then decide...there should be 2nd hit to 2770.
Quoting rootkit
it's cooling down, I'm gonna long
Bad idea
cool, forexlive did predicted this downgrade just 10 minutes before it happened
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.136.159
Quoting Loadedgun
Good Idea
nope. horrible idea. market is crashing. from now till below 1.20, every chart shows buyer's liquidity being gobbled up as soon as it's made available. sellers own this market.
EU session eur may hit below 1.27
Quoting moaf
Bad idea
Trust me - it is a very good idea especially if you want to make a lot of money over the next several days if not weeks - Gold, AUD, Euro. Just dump your order and forget the trade. Go celebrate or something.

From now on - when I make a call - you can take it to the bank. But of course in this case I don't know if you or the original poster is a short-term trader. But if you trade swing - then relax, piece of cake.
Just sell Euro for this week.
IF 27
Quoting Guest
nope. horrible idea. market is crashing. from now till below 1.20, every chart shows buyer's liquidity being gobbled up as soon as it's made available. sellers own this market.
Well as someone I know would say - Let Us Trade - the market is sure to reward whoever is right. Cheers
Quoting Loadedgun
Trust me - it is a very good idea especially if you want to make a lot of money over the next several days if not weeks - Gold, AUD, Euro. Just dump your order and forget the trade. Go celebrate or something.

From now on - when I make a call - you can take it to the bank. But of course in this case I don't know if you or the original poster is a short-term trader. But if you trade swing - then relax, piece of cake.
Ok. Good luck !!! Buy or sell, just to get some pips. I am 99% sure I can buy tommorow at better price
H4 chart shows the market is trying to push upward with the strong support of 1.2700 and low 1.2662. However 1.2750 is critical. If it's broken, the market will retest 1.2700 and 1.2650.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.136.159
Quoting frx_trader
H4 chart shows the market is trying to push upward with the strong support of 1.2700 and low 1.2662. However 1.2750 is critical. If it's broken, the market will retest 1.2700 and 1.2650.
Rally was just a completion of the breakout momentum off 1.20. Down momentum from 1.49 yet to complete, will complete before the end of the year or early in 2013. Trust momentum, nothing else.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.136.159
Until it break above daily 200MA, it's bear.
Euro is bubble, the most wanted selling in all currencies will be euro, now is greek, tommorow will be Franch-Italy-Spain-and so on, so what will German do? cover and cover and cover and cover, nuts isn't it?
Sell now or nothing. The ultimate target will be 0.8000
Quoting Wein_sonic
Euro is bubble, the most wanted selling in all currencies will be euro, now is greek, tommorow will be Franch-Italy-Spain-and so on, so what will German do? cover and cover and cover and cover, nuts isn't it?
Sell now or nothing. The ultimate target will be 0.8000
Agree. EZ is kept afloat now. However, the EZ core, France and Germany, is still strong. Maybe France will be downgraded. So what? It's like the whole US is in trouble, but California and New York are strong.
Who says? How do you define a bear? All of the down trend lines i have drawn on the daily chart have been broken.
Quoting Guest
Until it break above daily 200MA, it's bear.
if you move to the weekly chart, that is different
Technically H4 chart has last 3 bars reversal pattern heading south.
On the other hand it is a fact that last bar(the third red in last 10) closed as just another higher low.

Fundamentally Aaa negative to Aa1 equals a negative but A. Nothing more nothing less.

Realistically if now the sellers are more than buyers then the small fish flock are shorting because piranhas just ate those going long.

If sharks dinner open(London) and still in doubt just stay out.
Make me a prophet and I'll make you rich. - Me
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.136.159
Quoting jaygee
Who says? How do you define a bear? All of the down trend lines i have drawn on the daily chart have been broken.
Many institutional investors use daily 200MA as the dividing line between bearish and bullish sentiment. Also COT is bearish.

I define a bear as better sell opportunities than buy opportunities. 1.2840 remains great sell. 1.27 remains a good buy. Market right now is mixed with medium momentum favoring bulls, long momentum favoring bears and ultra long momentum favoring bulls.
Gonna be eyeballing 1.2770 Long..good news coming out of THAT meeting me thinks
Quoting moaf
Bad idea
..yeah
Certainly appears as if this information was announced in order for certain parties to benefit, but then again there is strong evidence to suggest that the markets are manipulated and that the big banks decide which way the market will move after a news announcement in order to benefit.
My cycles would point to a low sometime around 2 pm GMT today possibly around 1.27 area.

20th November 2012
Quoting Wein_sonic
The ultimate target will be 0.8000
You may be right - but can you time the move? This is the conundrum of markets and it is in the dynamic of price. Whether in an uptrend or a downtrend price moves in phases - up and down. So it is not so important sometimes (in fact most times) where price is headed. The is issue for the trader is "what phase are we trading in the given time frame of choice" - what phase? If you do not know that you can never be sure of what to do to be profitable as a trader. But sure 1.4 and .8 are probable but the issue will remain the phases to trade getting to either level.
I just bought (added more orders) to Gold and Euro. Not the right phase yet for going up (but pretty close on the dynamic scale) and what the heck - the immediate phase in H4 (for both Gold and the Euro) remains to the upside (the same with AUD but for some reason I am scared of buying AUD just now until I get clearer phasing information).

"visual confirmation is inversely correlated with opportunity" - Let Us Trade.
yep its goin up as long as 2820/25 breaks soon enough
None of the holders of French bonds has an incentive to break the market and sell quickly its bonds ; however, either for regulatory or statutory motivation, they will sell ultimately. That is the end of low long-term interest rates in France. The IR gap with Germany will start rising from today on. And Real estate loan IR will rise too, which means at last, the explosion of the real estate bubble.
I am really pleased to see so much difference in opinion. If we all thought the same then NO ONE would make any money! Please leave your money on the table I'll pick it up later?
For mean revertionists - two crucial things a) P is at the 50 EMA line on D1 a breach and close above it is critical to the immediate prospects of continued upside on that time scale and b) the VIX is crashing. We use the VIX as proxy for market wide reversion expectations. Let Us Trade.

PS: The former fact implies some pretty scary (contrary) price action in the smaller time frames but the latter fact assures that it is more likely we scale the resistance than fail at this point.
If everybody kept to self what he or she knows about the market - we all will be the worse off as traders. To share is to invest in your trading future - we cannot all be invisible and expect to succeed (and to those who think they have a special angle on the market and need to keep it in order to succeed - let it be clear that such an angle could only have been made possible by the prior sharing from other traders less selfish than you).
LG, would you care to share some charts, maybe start a thread so your points could be better understood? Just an idea.
"...the market is fractal in construct and this means that a current flow or trend is unified..." - LG

That's all needed to explain 44 billion to Greece, France downgrade, BOJ decision, upcoming eurogroup and collective decisions from traders all together. With that said I must remove some styles from my profile late today(they'll miss me as we spend lot Time together and they deserve a proper goodbye).
Make me a prophet and I'll make you rich. - Me
Depends of the time frame...I could say I have enough experience that yesterday's downgrade had 2 hits at 2770 line in 3 hours trading time (as i was pointing), this 2nd hit was a nice buy wasn't it...what's gonna happen later this week and further, I can not say, LG can I didn't trade this, I admit, I needed some sleep
For today's action I think IF consolidation succeeds at 2800, a bull flag on 1H chart is all we need in order to conclude that a long position at 2800 is worth risking for some 15 pips...SL can be very tight since the lower range of the bull flag shouldn't be breached in order to make it work...2796-7-8 can be a decent SL...
NOTE: yesterday's bull flag was disrupted by this downgrade and what did market do? It just returned to it's channel of trading, >2800...
From obvious reasons, me as a short term trader would take profit at 2820...
As Mr. LG said, sharing is caring, good luck everyone
http://www.screencast.com/t/A4nJzEL9

I hope this works, it is dollar index, and just wanted to say that this key level of 80.80 which is also a fib retracement is trying to pose as a support...if it is breached and the price closes more than 2 candles below it, eur is highly probably going further north...for now it is a fight between bulls and bears, but according to mid term analysts, this will easily fall, probably today...Tell me ur thoughts...I'm sorry if things are not visible enough on the chart...
Quoting Guest
Rally was just a completion of the breakout momentum off 1.20. Down momentum from 1.49 yet to complete, will complete before the end of the year or early in 2013. Trust momentum, nothing else.
I don't know about 2013 yet. So can't comment.
Quoting Mong00se
LG, would you care to share some charts, maybe start a thread so your points could be better understood? Just an idea.
I am sure you are aware of a clique of posters here that have served as detractors and have been essentially obscurantist in their disposition towards me and the general membership. These are the sort I call ego trippers - essentially empty barrels with nothing to offer.

But they are representative of a significant section of the retail trading population - very undeserving lot I would say (these types). Now apart from the fact that their disruptive behavior is certain to spoil any well intentioned thread I start I certainly would not like to share some of the more profound knowledge I have with such people as it would be irresponsible of me.

So what I have proposed is that once I am ready I shall link an account with the FF explorer program to first prove every single claim that I make (in the hope and I am sure at that point it will motivate many true pilgrims to act). Next I will then find a way to communicate with especially my buddies now some of those things that are transferable since not all knowledge is transferable (they can if they wish start threads or something). But in the main the idea of sounding out here is to get people to rethink some of things they now hold as truths about trading by actually going out to research (as I have done) some of these concepts and ideas.

Indeed, I do not and would never propose a system of trading. Since in fact the idea of a system of trading is actually ignorant when you know the market from the perspective I now do. It is the unique understanding of how the market works (I believe) that should guide your trading actions. Finding out more about these things and making observations on one's own is key. Hope you appreciate my points.

Thanks
Quoting Loadedgun
It is the unique understanding of how the market works (I believe) that should guide your trading actions. Finding out more about these things and making observations on one's own is key. Hope you appreciate my points.
I do appreciate your points. What topics would you recommend one to research to get closer to your understanding of the market? Thanks.
Quoting Mong00se
I do appreciate your points. What topics would you recommend one to research to get closer to your understanding of the market? Thanks.
The first and most basic is mean reversion - what is it? How does it work? Where does it work?

Then one needs to understand fractals. From the mathematical perspective and in terms of the two properties of fractals as they apply to markets - i.e. self-similarity and fractal dimension (i.e. why do all time frames display identical patterns and what does it mean to have these different time frames - what are they really telling us? Is a different story or is it the same story split up into chapters if you like. What does that mean in terms of mean reverting markets?).

What is mean reversion expectations? How do we measure it best (I use the VIX as proxy for mean reversion expectations for example).

What is chaos in mathematical terms and in physics. What is the difference between chaotic and deterministic dynamical systems. What does this tell us of price if the market is indeed a chaotic system.

Sine waves and their properties - can they be simulated in markets? What would be the justification? How does that help us read the market as an integral or unit which chaos math leads us to understand and fractal geometry demonstrates to us in the most direct way possible.

Now as complex as these may sound - trust me they are not. In addition, one just types in a phrase of interest into a search engine and locate stuff and piece things together until gradually it all begins to make sense. I am no different than anyone - but I can tell you that now I am very, very different as a result of spending time to know these things and I do not really think there is another way out. Cheers and all the best.
Quoting Loadedgun
Cheers and all the best.
Thanks a lot. Much appreciated.
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  • Posted: Nov 19, 2012 5:09pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: High Impact Breaking News
    Comments: 66  /  Views: 13,960