EUR Pullbacks are Inevitable and Needed | Forex Factory

  • EUR Pullbacks are Inevitable and Needed

    From oanda.com

    The market downtrend continues to develop. It is difficult to get individually enthusiastic when its a tight range, despite the volatility within that range. It’s even more suffocating to try to express certain trading strategies within that defined range. This has been the only theme that investors have witnessed over the past two trading sessions. However, thank Spanish bad debt data for having opened up this mornings range. Bad debts held by Spanish banks hit a record high in July (+$222b or +10% of credit) and deposit outflows (-7.8%, y/y) are gaining pace as the Spanish banking system sufferers a deeper ... (full story)

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leiamra
Sep 18, 2012 4:22am
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Quoting Loadedgun
So many factors put together so how do the so called "fundamentalists" sort things out? Yet what is clear is that technically (by my model) the Euro (and the GBP) are about as high as they can go (barring a spike or some range play). But regardless of developments to side with the so called fundamental drive that took it up - the probability of further upside is just now about 1% so I am bearish - real simple.
Do you really believe of what you'r saying !!!! because if so , you wouldn't be saying it over and over for each news post
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leiamra
Sep 18, 2012 3:51am
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Bla Bla Bla Bla
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V_s
Sep 18, 2012 4:33am
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I think the target for the Bullish trend is 1.3320 and it will not end until that.
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Loadedgun
Sep 18, 2012 3:51am
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As I have said elsewhere - my market model shows only a 1% chance of further upside in the Euro on the daily. Now what that implies is hard to say in terms of whether a down move is a reversal or a correction in the trend (pullback). It is usually impossible to tell which it is. Best to trade the trend (in this instance if the pair moves down - go with the flow).

PS: It is also important to note that in the same model the 1 hour shows only a 5% chance of further downside today which implies we might see a spike later in the day may be (US session) so no jumping ahead of the market - decide your time frame carefully or you can be wrong footed.
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Loadedgun
Sep 18, 2012 4:00am
Permalink
So many factors put together so how do the so called "fundamentalists" sort things out? Yet what is clear is that technically (by my model) the Euro (and the GBP) are about as high as they can go (barring a spike or some range play). But regardless of developments to side with the so called fundamental drive that took it up - the probability of further upside is just now about 1% so I am bearish - real simple.
Reply
Loadedgun
Sep 18, 2012 11:03am
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Quoting V_s
I think the target for the Bullish trend is 1.3320 and it will not end until that.
As the day comes to close and looking things over more rationally - I would not only agree but add that we will see 1.36 b4 this is over.
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Trader#9EF3
Sep 18, 2012 3:57am
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A clue perhaps Leiamra...is it a ewe?
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