Gold - Sharp upside day

I think nobody knows how much big the drop will be if there is no QE.
But according to my notes, last time FOMC commented there would be no QE (on Feb 29th, 2012), gold drop $104 in a day from its highest price in 2012 at $1,790. Of course this time the situation is not the same because we have to consider the Euro crisis, especially the decision that German will make about the ESM. The drop can be bigger or smaller.
But for me, I will not be bothered of those news. I've been training myself not to focus on the news itself although my trading style based on fundamentals. I always try to focus only to the direction of the price after the news.
My personal tips, if the result of the news is in "figures" form, such as NFP last Friday, we can set our trading before the news. I usually use Buy/Sell Limit Order under and above current price because when it is announced, the price usually will move to one direction only. It is because such news don't need any interpretation.
But if we're facing the news in "speech" form, such as FOMC statement, I think we better wait until the direction is really clear. Usually it takes some minutes before it's quite obvious whether the bull or the bear is the winner. It's logic, because such news need to be interpreted. That's why in the news like that the price usually moves very strong to the both side.
Hope my sharing will help....
Happy trading.

It seems that I'm less "technical" than both of you. lol.
I was "fully" technical but I didn't find it suited my trading personality.
Now I only use self-modified Pivot/Resistance and RSI and also strong news. Plus I only do gold trading since I found it easier to make profit in gold.
I'm a scalper, my trading is very fast with a lot of times in a day. I only target some pips from every single trades and rarely aim for far target except if I'm pretty sure of the direction, usually after the specific news such as NFP last Friday.
So, with this type of trading, I don't care to which way the price moves. Try to notice the gold price, it happens a lot everyday when the price just goes up and down several times in the same range. That's my primary target.
Good luck...

Dr Zain
It could retrace more because there won't be any QE before the US elections

Gold may retrace a bit more toward 1725!!! On Thursday 6Th Sept gold rallied to 1713 from 1695 and closed at 1690 with low of 1688!!!!

If this bank with all it's resources rely on analysis such as this to trade then I wonder why it is that retail does worse than the institutional segment. This is not to say there is something wrong with the analyses as presented - they are fine and quite impressive based as they are (and therefore limited by) classic technical theory.

However, sitting down here I can smile at a lot of their conclusions as I do not agree with many of their medium term implications. But I do not however base my views on "fundamental" analysis or classic technical theory. So it will be interesting to see if my views pan out against their reading. Helping to assure the differential degree of reliability between what I know (and how I use that knowledge) and what some of the best in the market know and how they use that knowledge.

Overall, they appear to see tops (unless I am wrong in reading their output) whereas I have not the same conclusions. While I agree with their view of short-term pull backs, I am certainly of the view that we would be making higher highs sooner rather than later in many of the pairs they have reviewed. Of course different views (tools and approaches) make the market and nothing except divine prophecy can tell the future exactly.

There does not have to be QE for Gold to rise - if the thrust of policy is broadly accomodative Gold will rise - indeed, and because the market reads current and near term policy to be broadly accomodative (and will be further assured to be so after the next FOMC meeting) the longer-term backing for Gold moving up is assurred. One problem with those given to trading by "fundamentals" is that they do not know the subject (of macroeconomics) enough to trade beyond what would be knee-jerk (or more correctly very short-term) reactions of the market - which may be very fleeting in the overall impact on market positioning (beyond the news). So for instance I would go into Thursday already positioned to fly with the Euro and Gold, etc. Knowing that fundamentally the policy will be more of the same - as is being currently expressed by market sentiment and orderflow.

PS: PS this means I am bullish Gold and Euro (regardless of news) and would be increasing my positions once we have the acceptable levels of pullback based on mean reversion concepts and my calculations of the seesaw volatility envelopes for both symbols (which is dead easy to do and which everyone does one way or another in setting stop loss levels based on volatility).

Agree with that too - hey how is it that I am more or less on the same page with you guys? What approach do you use? Can I view it? Just out of interest.

We've noticed from your previous posts that you deploy type of numerical regression which is part of our approach to (10% of the overall formula for confirmation purposes), however, we use a futuristic simulated approach that combine pretty much every think known to technical guys, PLUS, our proprietary tools that is also a combination of cutting edge hardware to be able to process large amount of data and extract (cross) correlation of all instruments combined! cheers!

Sounds pretty interesting - and I would like to know more if I can but from the way you sound you are not inviting the public. - BTW my regression tool is also only a proportion of the analysis mainly for defining market limits and it is exceptionally effective at indicating market equilibrium (both short and long-term levels) which is why you hear me claim that I "see" the market. But cheers and the very best of luck to you all.

In the end trading is trading so long as it is profitable and meets your needs - I do not think a lot of "technical" people would even consider what for instance I do to be "technical" - that is why you would see sometimes I refer to classic technicals. Good luck to you too

Thanks for valuable advice. I think 1686 is some sort of support

Is there a big drop if QE will not release?

[quote=...Hope my sharing will help....
Happy trading.[/quote]
Till then, short Gold to 1699 level!

Is there a big drop if GE will not release?

how it possible that bernanke anounce the QE3.i think he suport only DOLLER because of ELLECTION.so SHORT gold but remember dont forget stop loss because any thing happen in WAR and FUTURE TRADDING .