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  • Difficult to Discern Signal in Today's Price Action

    From marctomarket.com

    There are a number of conflicting forces that are obscuring whatever signal the market is generating today. The US dollar has firmed in the European afternoon/NY morning. This would seem to be consistent with the risk off following the poor US data that included the third consecutive sub-50 reading on the manufacturing ISM, something that has not taken place since May-July 2009. At the same time the US reported an unexpected and sharp decline in construction spending (-0.9% vs expectations of a 0.4% rise). Yet if the poor data increases the risk of new asset purchases from the FOMC next week, it does not appear to be ... (full story)

  • #1
  • Quote
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:27pm Sep 4, 2012 2:27pm
In fact there was none (signal) - and we would have of course the normal attempts at attribution for all kinds of explanations. But the move started well before US data in fact it was (for the Euro for instance) the reaction from the high in asia trading that then turned into what it turned. I was of the opinion we were gonna see a pull back then resumption. But when I saw the FTSE in deep red early (not to mention stoxx 600) and the VIX rather elevated from recent levels - I knew it was a down day and it was.

Frankly, it would be nice sometimes if the truth were told - no one really has a clue how or why the market moves nearly all the time. Attempts at attribution - I just take for granted as imaginings.

Of course there are times when clearly - a trigger event can be identified but those are the exceptions not the rule.
  • #2
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  • Sep 4, 2012 2:37pm Sep 4, 2012 2:37pm
Can you elaborate on the FSSE, the stoxx 600, and the VIX and how it may be used alongside forex?
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  • #3
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  • Sep 4, 2012 3:27pm Sep 4, 2012 3:27pm
Quoting Loadedgun
Frankly, it would be nice sometimes if the truth were told - no one really has a clue how or why the market moves nearly all the time. Attempts at attribution - I just take for granted as imaginings.

Of course there are times when clearly - a trigger event can be identified but those are the exceptions not the rule.
Somebody has to say it sometimes. It's good we remember cause we'll hear the chaos & the noise. The fear & greed. The spontaneous yet unexplainable human emotions, the inner rulings of the intelligent trading machines... Fascinating world when you know where to look. Don't let you be fooled by yourself 8~}
  • #4
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  • Sep 4, 2012 3:37pm Sep 4, 2012 3:37pm
Quoting jagonzalez
Can you elaborate on the FSSE, the stoxx 600, and the VIX and how it may be used alongside forex?
Basically you are looking to see - whether it is a risk averse mode predominant in trading or if there is a willingness to take risk. Strongly, but not always indicative of how FX pairs would trade vis a vis risky pairs vs safe havens.

PS: Google FTSE, the VIX and Stoxx 600 - especially the VIX can be very helpful.
  • #5
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  • Sep 4, 2012 5:07pm Sep 4, 2012 5:07pm
sounds good....thanks
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  • Posted: Sep 4, 2012 1:02pm
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     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 5  /  Views: 2,178