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  • Why EUR Could Rally Even If ECB Cuts Rates

    From seekingalpha.com

    It may be a holiday week in the U.S., but with 2 major central banks expected to ease monetary policy on Thursday and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report scheduled for Friday, we should see a pickup in volatility over the next 48 hours. Having left interest rates unchanged at 1% since the beginning of the year, the European Central Bank is now expected to cut interest rates by 25bp to 0.75%. Although the ECB has not dropped hints about their inclination to ease, 82% of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank to cut interest rates. Considering that the news agency surveyed 62 analysts, this is not a ... (full story)

really i didn't understand anything from this bullshit market....just game here
It's hard to get any direction trading EURUSD when BOTH central banks want the currency to be weak. It's simple vs high yielding.
Lol I like this buggers disclosure in the last paragraph - I don't intend to hold any positions in the next 72 hours. Typical bullshit article!! Try trading tomorrow matey instead of just farting nonsense here. If u r so precise in prediction I dare u to trade
Quoting jonahky7
Lol I like this buggers disclosure in the last paragraph - I don't intend to hold any positions in the next 72 hours. Typical bullshit article!! Try trading tomorrow matey instead of just farting nonsense here. If u r so precise in prediction I dare u to trade
well Sir, i think of myself as an experienced trader that makes money regardless how rough the market conditions are, however, during the last 24 hours it was amazing. All of a sudden i was trading DJ30 and suddenly market was closed this was yesterday, i contacted my forex retailer and they advised market will be closed till 9:30 NY time Thursday, today morning all of a sudden the US market was open for trading DJ30 again, for 2 hours or so.... so for the past 24 hours i started to have a terrible feeling of uncertainty, at twitter.com i got links today for almost 100 articles, sir they are all contradicted, terribly contradicted what i love about those articles it is all written by analysts and strategists, seems that no one can even guess where the market next direction ..... but on the whole i have some open positions, some hedged positions and will keep trading and will keep making profit ......
OK it is geopolitical escalation by Iran, the US, Israel, Turkey, Syria and of course russians are acting in their double agent manner or their gay behavior. The effect of this on oil. and other commodities..... the BOE, the ECB, and the US data that will be released, what i can tell you it's a huge day of volatility and this is a wonderful chance for making money.
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then just watch and learn.
Quoting Lion777
really i didn't understand anything from this bullshit market....just game here
I watched this movie yesterday: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEV5AFFcZ-s

And reading this only confirm the view that Centrals bancks actually control the people, because they control the states.

"The main question for Draghi tomorrow is whether EU Leaders deserve to be rewarded for the banking union or punished for not making progress on a fiscal union"

"He has held back monetary stimulus to pressure European Leaders into action and based on his comments following the EU Summit"

Oh my god they write as if Draghi was the chief of the EU. And he is a banker... from a PRIVATE bank like the F.E.D

We need to get information on this stuff.
Good luck guys trading this anyway.
Greetings, BeLikewater
Quoting Dr. forex
well Sir, i think of myself as an experienced trader that makes money regardless how rough the market conditions are, however, during the last 24 hours it was amazing. All of a sudden i was trading DJ30 and suddenly market was closed this was yesterday, i contacted my forex retailer and they advised market will be closed till 9:30 NY time Thursday, today morning all of a sudden the US market was open for trading DJ30 again, for 2 hours or so.... so for the past 24 hours i started to have a terrible feeling of uncertainty, at twitter.com i got links...
Tell me about it matey but I think u didn't get what I trying to joke about - if u had read the last paragraph of this dumbass article he stated he will not trade for the next 72 hours. For me I'm trading as usual. One thing I learnt from a good friend, don't get screwed up but all these nonsense articles analysts who won't dare to bet a single penny on the day itself. Might be better that I write an article caused I walk e walk n talk e talk unlike these ball less idiots.
Maybe that IS the trade - to stay out while all the drama queens are in charge. After all, being flat IS a position. I'm not, but I think if you are a new trader - there is more to gain by paying attention and observing than the handful of Dollars you could win, or most likely lose, over the next three days.
Those writers got paid to say whatsoever the people whose pay them want them to propaganda about to lure traders to theirs sides. After all, there are only two sides of one trade, either you buy or you sell. Thus, both sides try to drum louder than the other side with the hope that more spectators will banwagon with them to boost their trade to win. That is that simple. If you want to trade you must know yourself which side is more likely to win and so on and make your own decision from there. If you are a beginner and don't have much money to gamble. Stay aside observe and wait until you feel confident that you can make money and then get in but not follow those writers because they are guessing this, guessing that. Your guess are just as good as their guess. They don't know no better. Even professional traders loss money sometimes. No one can say that he or she never lost a trade. I won a lot but I also lost too. So this is the name of the game. No big deal. Just be very careful don't get hook into that until you are pro.
a rate cut should be already factored at these levels...and if it happens reaction should be marginal...I see more upside potential tomorrow....recent measures plus fiscal rigor and cost cutting plans should do...I don't see what else they can do...Merkel was all smiles in today meeting...Draghi has been very supportive recently while Bernanke can be a surprise...as per BOE...I still see a lot of interest despite all recent noise and possible rate cut
Check MT4 D1 chart in 2009 when UK BOE did easing,month of March EURUSD GBPJPY went down, then crawled up the succeeding months till end of the year.
Here's my game plan for today and tomorrow.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ayos/7504097274/
open short Cable @ 125.11
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Quoting jonahky7
Tell me about it matey but I think u didn't get what I trying to joke about - if u had read the last paragraph of this dumbass article he stated he will not trade for the next 72 hours. For me I'm trading as usual. One thing I learnt from a good friend, don't get screwed up but all these nonsense articles analysts who won't dare to bet a single penny on the day itself. Might be better that I write an article caused I walk e walk n talk e talk unlike these ball less idiots.
yeah, I read the disclaimer too, but I had a laugh. The writer (Kathy Lien) says that "I have no positions in any stocks mentioned...", note that the important word is STOCKS. I found that funny and ironic as she is a very good Forex trader and commentator, and I have no doubt that she will be trading FX as usual... (as I will be too!)
Cutting rates is the best and only solution to boost up the economy in the Euro zone.So traders might celebrate the rate cut(if it happens) and buy Euro which could lead to temporary risk sentiment.
ECB deliberately let the euro go down so they can buy the euro at low price. Believe me, they will buy back euro!
Quoting ijoel4ex
ECB deliberately let the euro go down so they can buy the euro at low price. Believe me, they will buy back euro!
And what they do with this Euro?
Jj1459: ask ECB why did they do it last week, almost 250 pips gain in a day!
Quoting ijoel4ex
Jj1459: ask ECB why did they do it last week, almost 250 pips gain in a day!
That wasn't the ECB's action mate.We saw the trader's reaction after the release of the plans discussed by the Euorpean leaders in the EU summit on 29th June.
@Jj1459 :"Asset managers are buying back EUR/USD this morning as evidenced..." forexlive.com
jun 29, 2012

so mate?
Quoting Dr. forex
well Sir, i think of myself as an experienced trader that makes money regardless how rough the market conditions are, however, during the last 24 hours it was amazing. All of a sudden i was trading DJ30 and suddenly market was closed this was yesterday, i contacted my forex retailer and they advised market will be closed till 9:30 NY time Thursday, today morning all of a sudden the US market was open for trading DJ30 again, for 2 hours or so.... so for the past 24 hours i started to have a terrible feeling of uncertainty, at twitter.com i got links...
good thinking.
Quoting jonahky7
Lol I like this buggers disclosure in the last paragraph - I don't intend to hold any positions in the next 72 hours. Typical bullshit article!! Try trading tomorrow matey instead of just farting nonsense here. If u r so precise in prediction I dare u to trade
staying away in times of uncertainty, that's what a real trader should do.
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could any one suggest me how to trade for long term , because i loose much in intraday trade,
which is reliable is it the technical things or the data , im really messed up in understanding this ero/usd pair , could any one suggest me how to trade for long term.
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kids kids you need to understand how the market works, if you cut rates the currency tends to devalue ( learn about supply and demand) the more demand the less value your currency holds, when the US cut rates in 2010 the USD dropped almost 3% against the EURO and against the GBP however didn't change the its value against the YEN. Based on experience however the ECB is planning to cut rates to push its economy up, so I see the euro moving up at least for tomorrow and gradually loosing momentum
Its pretty simple people, stay away from the EURO intraday and take a long term short position with a large stop - its a high probability trade that only requires patience, and might take months to reach your target, but so what as you'll earn money on the swap. DON'T trade the news, its the sucker play for the stop hunters, and besides there are plenty of other pairs to trade more safely.
Today would be a crucital day in Trading sentiments If Euro cut rates to 0.25 or more then there would be buying of usd. And if they surprise the market by cutting the deposit rate to 0% then Its real crisis in their banking systeem as they did in 2009 which shock the market and there was huge demand for safe heaven assets. And if ECB cuts the deposit rates then GOld would be sold enormously ...................Watch and dont hold any position

Thanks & regards.
I think the rate will be the same, and this will be a very surprising move. My position count on this!
Euro could rally. Thanks for the tip. Ready to SELL.
JPY pairs worked the best during these days. guess US big traders are waiting for the news releases later today, then we should see some crazy volatile market
If ECB cuts rate, it changes the game. Maybe she says it will rally to 1.40. well, that's good. but i don't buy it.
Up Up Up - thats what the wave pattern says. For long-term gains. Scalping is defensive take a position lets make money (or lose if you do not have the staying power and timing).

PS: You now see how much of a hoax when a day trader claims to be profitable each trade every day - market does not move like that.
Quoting aman4forex
Today would be a crucital day in Trading sentiments If Euro cut rates to 0.25 or more then there would be buying of usd. And if they surprise the market by cutting the deposit rate to 0% then Its real crisis in their banking systeem as they did in 2009 which shock the market and there was huge demand for safe heaven assets. And if ECB cuts the deposit rates then GOld would be sold enormously ...................Watch and dont hold any position

Thanks & regards.
Why Gold go down if rush is for safe haven assets?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
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Quoting Loadedgun
Up Up Up - thats what the wave pattern says. For long-term gains. Scalping is defensive take a position lets make money (or lose if you do not have the staying power and timing).

PS: You now see how much of a hoax when a day trader claims to be profitable each trade every day - market does not move like that.
Classic example why you should NEVER listen to free advice...1.23 something now...DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO FUNDAMENTALS!
I visited her website. I like her analysis. Only this time, the market has taken her by surprise. she misses something, and maybe will make up to it. It's so fortunate that she stays out this time.
Quoting Guest
Classic example why you should NEVER listen to free advice...1.23 something now...DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO FUNDAMENTALS!
What is he talking about - did AUD flunk yet? Though it looks like down anytime now.
Quoting EricKamezou
staying away in times of uncertainty, that's what a real trader should do.
Guessed you missed the 150pips drop then - I didn't cos it's what the punters want you to trade wrongly. When articles tells you to trade up, all you need to do is analyse past ECB rates and see where your RS lines are and trade according. I just let it dropped from morning from my Resistance line indicator at 1.25417 and go go go.

That for me is what a real trader will do. It's not how steady or careful you are in a trade, it's how BRAVE you are to stand in front of the incoming train and block it......matey.
Quoting Manipulator
What is he talking about - did AUD flunk yet? Though it looks like down anytime now.
I did not specify and most folks trade the Euro not the more agreeable AUD. Will be more careful next time. In fact fewer posts from now on with complete parameters.
Quoting jonahky7
Guessed you missed the 150pips drop then - I didn't cos it's what the punters want you to trade wrongly.

....

That for me is what a real trader will do. It's not how steady or careful you are in a trade, it's how BRAVE you are to stand in front of the incoming train and block it......matey.
This is true. I however was trading the cable, because I get on better with a flighty chart, and recovered my idiocy of earlier in the week.

@jonahky7, do you have any thoughts which you are prepared to share as to why Fibre was a stone-drop of 100+ pips whereas other pairs were somewhat more entertaining?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
@ Exodus: I was looking and analysed a bit on the previous ECB rate cuts, one was in November, as mentioned it dropped 150pips and then recovered after the Euro session, only to have the Euro dropped further.

The market sentiment for the EU summit was initially NORTH, but as far as I understand it. The GOOD NEWS within the EU summit, that supposedly was to bring crazy rally north - will not surface for at least 2-3yrs. So it fizzles out quickly. Since then I've been trading on only my RS lines and the data from US only goes to show that QE3 will not be here at all - at least not before Nov. The yanks have prolong Operation Twist, and I suspect FED may try with Operation SDR before the actual QE3 - but until then, expect the parasite to be weaken. To have a weak Euro is good for the economy rebuilding process for Euro lala land. There are bound to be so call good calls from the Euro leaders to unite together - but each their own really.

Coming back to the >150pips dropped, it's simply entering at each of the RS lines, which I entered at .25466 new short, had another short running from .2625 area.

My today indicators shows pivot line at .24302

R1-R3 at .25499 .25459 .26147
S1-S3 at .23664 .23170 .22656

Being Friday, once I get my pips for the day (hopefully before 12:00 UK time), I'll stop at let the circus runs on this afternoon with the NFP if the data is confusing, (there is a likelihood it will), otherwise I will trade thru the day.

Whether you sell or buy, just pay attention when big players come into the action - at such level, some big players are likely to come in to do some killing and run.
Thanks.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Quoting Exodus
Why Gold go down if rush is for safe haven assets?
It is as simple as this People always move to safe heaven us dollar when there is risk aversion High yeilded assests like gold and silver can move either way but dollar always stands tall in these situations ...Market was keeping an eye on ECB after lot of action on greek elections and EU summit but it was too tough to handle as spanish bond yeild again climbs today.........gold was sold yesterday from highs 1623 to 1583 today so it was on the cards
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