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  • EUR/USD: This is why we don’t pick bottoms

    From dailyforextradingedge.com

    I started out the day reiterating to traders that there was virtually nothing that was known last October that isn’t known now. The fundamentals surrounding the U.S. and Europe have not changed in any significant way. Looking at the markets in Europe today – with many markets higher – does not support the weakness in the euro but it does remind us: Don’t pick bottoms. The Dow – before going into lunch was up 156 points – and has since shaved half of that rally. The Dow has had four previous up days throughout May so the “sell May and go away” theme seems justified. But last week’s volatility has the ... (full story)

Whenever whatever bottom is then it will be. This is war between big boys. We step outside and watch them.
I do think there will come a time when picking the dip will be a good profit, but that will only happen when the gameplay of eur/USD changed its attention from euro lala land to US of A. That's possibly y BB from FED has been very quiet thus far, likewise for the rest of usual yacking fed dumbos n congressman salads. That time will come really slowly as we still have redbull Spain n Italy Greece plus the rest of the pigs to sort out....... guess that will take at least 10 generations of non tax paying people to pay off what they owe now!
I was sure that this fall was about Greece getting out of EU but after the last polls from Greece saying that new democracy would win and it will do whatever it can to stay in the eurozone I thought the eur/usd begin to rise. However, the euro keeps falling. It can be just stop hunting because a lot of people are in the buy positions already..or maybe something we don't know is happening behind the curtains
Forgot to add some rubbish talk. In days like this I don't believe in scenario where it's oversold or overbought. Euro is still overvalued though. In any case as a small retail trader that can't pit against the big player, I'll simply buy n sell or sell n buy with the big boys. Rinse n repeat or simply rinse a never ending wet tower.
Quoting mpakii
I was sure that this fall was about Greece getting out of EU but after the last polls from Greece saying that new democracy would win and it will do whatever it can to stay in the eurozone I thought the eur/usd begin to rise. However, the euro keeps falling. It can be just stop hunting because a lot of people are in the buy positions already..or maybe something we don't know is happening behind the curtains
It's not just about Greece, it holds less than 2% GDP in euro lala land. It's the bigger countries that are niw scarring the living daylight out of investors, aka Spain then Italy next follow by the rest of the pigs
Jonahky7 - pay off what they owe? Are you serious?

That's WHY Greece HAS to leave the Euro and go to the drachma so they can devalue their currency and have a 'bankruptcy' just like Argentina did.

All one has to do is 'read the charts'. The author does a good job pointing that out in the article. The problem with too many traders is they put their own personal bias into trading instead of relying on what the markets tell them.

The EUR/USD will drop to match the 2010 lows of 1.18.
the fall began with the failed elections in Greece.. the problems in Spain and Italy was there for years, yet no falls.. eur/usd was in a channel since January. Now that the euro fell , european companies would make more profit due exports and lower euro and it would rise once again..
The Mayans didn't predict the end of the world, they were predicting the end of the Euro. €
Quoting fxsport
Jonahky7 - pay off what they owe? Are you serious?

That's WHY Greece HAS to leave the Euro and go to the drachma so they can devalue their currency and have a 'bankruptcy' just like Argentina did.

All one has to do is 'read the charts'. The author does a good job pointing that out in the article. The problem with too many traders is they put their own personal bias into trading instead of relying on what the markets tell them.

The EUR/USD will drop to match the 2010 lows of 1.18.
I mentioned at least 10 generations, so what will that equate to in number of years! I lost count. Therefore what I'm implying is the more you owe the more bargaining power u have. I never said they will pay their debt did I?
Quoting mpakii
the fall began with the failed elections in Greece.. the problems in Spain and Italy was there for years, yet no falls.. eur/usd was in a channel since January. Now that the euro fell , european companies would make more profit due exports and lower euro and it would rise once again..
You are right on this, Germany is rubbing their hands together n can u hear kching kching? Cheaper exports means their precision cars will generat more revenues for the Germans. And I just bought an Audi last weekend
no one major country is going to pay all of its debts... this whole capitalism is based on increasing debts and money supply. hence all of the counties are doing the same thing and the currencies stay nearly the same against each other.
I can't think anymore, I'm off to bed. Must have been the Glenlivet.
Interesting to see many traders, not here in this article, complaining n whining about longs n oversold, the same happen when parasite was in 1.3xx territory. One point that traders experienced or inexperienced need to keep constant is to look at charts n their RS lines. Trade wise not dumb n throw ur money away.
I love this comment thread everyone. madno2, I think that Mayan comment is the funniest thing I have heard all year!
jonahky7, as always, terrific comments my friend. I've come to expect that from you. The bar is set high now
Thanks Raghee, nothing much just my usual yacking.

But I'm waiting for SDR to be announced once SDR is announced, think June/July period that's when I will long with big big big lots. So I'll watch for this SDR word with my eyes wide open.
Quoting jonahky7
You are right on this, Germany is rubbing their hands together n can u hear kching kching? Cheaper exports means their precision cars will generat more revenues for the Germans. And I just bought an Audi last weekend
That has been the problem for the EU block the past year - their single currency is overvalued. By lowering the currency you increase your exports - that is why the US allowed their currency to devalue so they could export more planes and other products.

The problem is that countries like the PIGS (Ireland excluded as they are a major drug producer) rely more on service industries and don't have exports.

Greece is exhibit A. They were a great vacation destination because it was a good value, however once they adopted the Euro they lost a lot of tourists who then went to Turkey instead; the beaches aren't nearly as good but your get better value for your money.

However the Northern members of the EU are benefitting from a cheaper Euro
That's y the northern rocks (I mean north eu) not our crap northern rock bank in uk, are opposing Eurobonds. End of the day, equation is simple - greed. I am in eu if u r in eu I will address u as matey, buddy n when u r in trouble I will help u. How do I do it? Simply yack yack yack but backstabbed u at the back n let u rot in hell (cos u deserve it in the first place, spending what u do not have).

This comment is likely to become a memoir on how EU lala land support each other with lips talk but backstabbed each others only to gain Kching for oneself.

I don't need to be explicit to name the countries again do I?

Forgot to mention one thing before I go to bed, great article Raghee!
Looking through my eyes. My understanding is that 'Special Drawing Rights' IS the nwo's desired global currency. In fact, it is already in effect in US postal rates, which are I denominated in SDR's. We know that centralized financial control is what the nwo wants. The goal is neo-feudalistic serfdom. I, and others, do not, and will not, welcome the SDR, because of what it as a concept and in fact, signifies, and portends for the future. Does anyone want to be taxed by a central authority? Monitored by a central authority (the UN is proposed as the police of the internet)? The goal is, for a small group, to be able to tax and control the entire world, which they are depopulating. Who wants this except the isolated group, with their minions, who seek world domination. The entire ongoing indebtedness of the financial crisis is CHAOS they created in order to bring "order" out of it - an increasing centralization.
I doubt euro will break up , yes I agree euro will be devalue for sure. Greece simply can't take pressure and will leave euro sooner or later. Euro is still a benefit for some other European countries. Hence , euro will survive with devalue
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.101.166
Quoting mpakii
I was sure that this fall was about Greece getting out of EU but after the last polls from Greece saying that new democracy would win and it will do whatever it can to stay in the eurozone I thought the eur/usd begin to rise. However, the euro keeps falling. It can be just stop hunting because a lot of people are in the buy positions already..or maybe something we don't know is happening behind the curtains
Not only you have problems in Greece and Spain, but also the economic condition makes some speculators bet that the ECB is going to lower the interest rate, which is also negative for the EUR/USD. Even if you solve the debt problem, ECB's monetary policy would still drag EUR down unless Fed clearly hints QE3.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.61.13
Quoting madno2
The Mayans didn't predict the end of the world, they were predicting the end of the Euro. €
...LOL....
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.243.165
What would be the EUR direction against USD, apart from current PIIG issues

- After Irish referendum which scheduled on 31st May? South or North?
- After the ban on Iranian oil effectively imposed on 1st of July? Further South or North?
Quoting madno2
The Mayans didn't predict the end of the world, they were predicting the end of the Euro. €
LOL!!!!! That's like, if you're an American in the living room, what are you in the bathroom? European.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.45.60
In what universe USA economic condition is that strong to set the eurousd pair price under 1.25. This pair is now undervalued. After NFP's release usd is going to down surely.
Quoting Guest
In what universe USA economic condition is that strong to set the eurousd pair price under 1.25. This pair is now undervalued. After NFP's release usd is going to down surely.
You should bet your entire account on this knowledge. I would even suggest that you add money to it so you can really crank up the leverage.
next stop is 1.20 with clear space between, hold onto your hats
2eur = 1 usd
Quoting Guest
In what universe USA economic condition is that strong to set the eurousd pair price under 1.25. This pair is now undervalued. After NFP's release usd is going to down surely.
I wouldn't be so sure about when USD will begin sliding down since this market is not driven by reason nor fundamentals, but I have to agree with your first statement. It is just a matter of time.
Euro-zone will get their doze of medicine, go through climax and recover. USD will have to face much worse hangover. It is inevitable as death. Wait and see what happen when BB announce QE3.
As for the current crazy stunt; Over 200000 short contracts (record high) will have to cover sooner or later.
BTW. next time don't hide behind Guest.
Daily pivot for today 30/05/12

1.25068

S1 S2 S3 .24665 .24355 .24036
R1 R2 R3 .25531 .25840 .26300

2 support lines before further south .2430/35 .24036/.2405

Next stronger support (2year low) 1.2328 (big gap in between .240 - .2328 but hey anything can happen in forex, possibly best approach is to treat each 25pips as a barrier down).

Trade wise and don't throw money away

Better bet if you want to long will be S3. For me, it's sell and buy.

Remember nothing is oversold nor overbought here in this scenario we are in.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.112.91
Quoting jonahky7
You are right on this, Germany is rubbing their hands together n can u hear kching kching? Cheaper exports means their precision cars will generat more revenues for the Germans. And I just bought an Audi last weekend
Was the Audi bought forex profits or money left from a rich uncle ?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.223.106
Quoting plasmatron10
next stop is 1.20 with clear space between, hold onto your hats
You hold onto your own hat. We'll keep printing money as you will soon call it QE3 :-)
Quoting Guest
Was the Audi bought forex profits or money left from a rich uncle ?
At least I pay TAX for my car coz I live in UK not Greece

Wish I have a rich uncle, that works in the FED or ECB!!
Quoting jonahky7
At least I pay TAX for my car coz I live in UK not Greece

Wish I have a rich uncle, that works in the FED or ECB!!
Or...you need someone that knows the tax laws

(it took me a whole day trading to pay for my TT)
must admit to enjoying trading for myself @ last
Quoting zax1150
Or...you need someone that knows the tax laws

(it took me a whole day trading to pay for my TT)
must admit to enjoying trading for myself @ last
Just a day to pay for TT, that's quick !!!!

Am sure there are loads of tax loopholes a so called chartered accountant can introduce one too!!!!!

Hows' weather there today (what a question)? It's foggy this bloody morning and then sun came out for 5mins then hide again. Typical way to start the weekend in UK!!!!
Morning Jon,

A Bright & sunny 22 t-shirt & shorts here ...(beer garden conditions)

as for the car was only trading 20 lots a pip that's why it took all day

Don't expect too many accountants to actually tell you, they tend to save that info for "special" clients & then charge accordingly
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.152.101
Quoting madno2
The Mayans didn't predict the end of the world, they were predicting the end of the Euro. €
LMAO
Quoting zax1150
Morning Jon,

A Bright & sunny 22 t-shirt & shorts here ...(beer garden conditions)

as for the car was only trading 20 lots a pip that's why it took all day

Don't expect too many accountants to actually tell you, they tend to save that info for "special" clients & then charge accordingly
Nice, I'll trade 20 lots when I hear the word SDR being farted
Quoting jonahky7
Nice, I'll trade 20 lots when I hear the word SDR being farted
Difference is I use my indicator to trade
Quoting zax1150
Difference is I use my indicator to trade
Yes agree on that, though I trust moi indicators, better safe for me than sorry. Otherwise I may join the yellow submarine crew anytime.

Fear or Greed, it's a dilemma between both. But clocking in enough GREEN pips each day, so happy with that.
NICE POP north - makes my day!!!! South then North!!!! Yoohooooooooo done for the day!
Argh sorry about that nipped off to the pub for lunch........

& true a comfy 200 a day is always nice

had a buy contra @ 1.2424 & a sell @ 1.2470 .....apologies, will see about, getting you in on the Uk server trials
The lower it goes the richer Germany becomes, why do you think they are doing everything they can to devalue this currency, they don't give a damn about anybody elses economy but their own.

Base your trades on this assumption and you'll win more often.
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: May 29, 2012 5:31pm
  • Submitted by:
     Raghee Horner
    Category: Technical Analysis
    Comments: 43  /  Views: 7,881