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  • The final death throes of the euro

    From telegraph.co.uk

    The euro crisis is entering its final stages. Economic pain is now interacting with political resistance to produce intense financial pressure. I expect Greece to leave the euro – and perhaps very soon. It could happen voluntarily, but both the Greek people and Greek politicians are still clinging to the idea that they can put an end to austerity yet still stay in the euro. In order to try to achieve that, a new government may call the eurozone's bluff. At that point, the other eurozone members would face an awkward choice. Doubtless there would be voices in favour of providing the money, willy nilly. That might ... (full story)

can please update here - whether this event greece will be out of euro -- will make aususd long or short
can anybody advise about gold today?
Buy a years supply of food and water and sit tight.
pipdaddy
@rankinchopra the AUD is still considered a risk currency, or speculation currency when the world economy gets nervous. It's more in depth than that, but that is the simplest explanation.

So if Greece exited the Euro and the markets got anxious it would be wise to short the audusd for some time. Just be sure to watch the charts for key areas of support and resistence as usual.
If I have a pip everytime I read an article in the past 4 years that says the Euro is on its deathbed, I would have enough to buy a yacht by now. When something is in its death throes for so long, one can logically conclude that this may actually be its natural living state.
i am bullish on Eurusd, audusd and gold...
This week the possibility of a turning point for the bullish I think
nah....Greek exit and a few others will only strengthen the euro in the long run...I believe that's what soros is thinking though he will no say it.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
if Greece out then i thought Euro bearish for long time...1.2100...
>>>>>>>>BULL<<<<<<<<<
Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 1.2935 targeting 1.2730 and stop loss above 1.3070 might be appropriate.
>>>>>>>>BULL<<<<<<<<<
The exit of Greece (maybe even Spain) would have bearish effects against the Euro. An estimated 270 million Euros worth of debt would be forced upon the Eurozone if Greece left - that would not bode well, at least in the short-term. I read that nearly 50 percent of the EU is in recession, and Germany seems to be the lone wolf. Interestingly enough, I heard that if the Euro was solely pegged to Germany it would be worth double than what it is currently and declining. Unless the 8 or 9 recession-baring countries leave the EU all together, I see the Euro grinding lower with volatility. Current targets suggest 1.27 and as low as 1.24.
Quoting Amanda2
If I have a pip everytime I read an article in the past 4 years that says the Euro is on its deathbed, I would have enough to buy a yacht by now. When something is in its death throes for so long, one can logically conclude that this may actually be its natural living state.
This time, the Euro is in intensive care and has little chance of survival. There is worse to come with Spain and Portugal teetering on the brink of collapse.
Hahahahaha. deputy prime minister warns "Greece will run out of money soon", interviewing Daily Telegraph, where as I think he was willing to say changing words a little bit,
"Greece will run out of EURO soon", and the result is not too far away as they are not going on to pay thier loans to ECB/IMF or others.
On other hand, "Greece's EUR Exit Will Cost Euro-zone Countries €276 Billion". Thrilling position and a horror filmatic situation for economists of Euro Zone.
target at 1.26
Bull chaser.......Bulldog & Bulldozer.
war?
What kind of headline is that, "The Final Death". Are we in the way to world war dooms day?
i'm short EUR/USD but there's always a last minute deal which seems to come out of the woodwork. In theory waiting for NY to kick into action and hoping EUR gets slammed because even now - EUR is way, way overvalued. Europe trade session being very generous.
If Greece leaves EUR everything will remain the same, somebody will win somebody else will lose.
Quoting koi99
What kind of headline is that, "The Final Death". Are we in the way to world war dooms day?
The kind of headline you would expect from a newspaper operating at a time of a banana shortage crisis ,when all their writers are monkeys frantically printing utter BS away in the hope of getting their 5 a day in banana portions as compensation for their efforts.

I wonder if it has occurred to any of them that in the event of the Euro losing significant value(which I doubt ,regardless of how bad Greece gets ),that it would actually make the Euro zone more competitive ,and thus work out positive in the middle to long term.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
Regardless of what happens, ECB to be printing money, probably Fed & other central banks as they'll be asked to help aid EU
key lesson, all need to diversify into multiple currencies. Best guide for lower risk, simpler ways to do that suitable for most risk averse, mainstream investors and traders I've seen is The Sensible Guide to Forex, see: www.wiley.com/buy/9781118158074 for description. Shows multiple ways to protect yourself against the silent tax of currency devaluation
add to eur/usd long 1.2870 2x
add to eur/usd long 2840 2x
Quoting jaygee
add to eur/usd long 2840 2x
I think you are a bit optimistic, the weekly chart shows support likely at ~1.2625; and if that fails it might bounce at 1.2500. Today I decided to sit out the short I should have taken. Damn! missed out on 30 pips.


Quoting Amanda2
If I have a pip everytime I read an article in the past 4 years that says the Euro is on its deathbed, I would have enough to buy a yacht by now. ...
..and if I had a pip for every leading comment that goes "...does this mean oil will be more or less slippery ? " then I would join you using my sea-plane!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Let's see if 1.2850 the taunted barrier option will become the next resistance line in 2-3hours.

ECB not buying bonds for 9th consecutive weeks, BIS not in action, nor any other big players bidding too.

Situation is bad - but heyho as it goes parasite will come back again when and IF Greece issue is over!!!!

Bloody good thing I'm not into stocks - 8% wept off UK shares today becos of fking Greece!
Quoting Exodus
I think you are a bit optimistic, the weekly chart shows support likely at ~1.2625; and if that fails it might bounce at 1.2500. Today I decided to sit out the short I should have taken. Damn! missed out on 30 pips.
Huhh lol...........you have a very big gap from 1.2836 to 1.2625 - wow!!!! Who will be trading there? There are still supports along the way before .26 buddy - so don't predict just trade accordingly buddy.

Who says we can't buy - I bought at .2827 x10 and close at .2840 for a 130pips equivalent profit. Y I bought at that level? 1.282/33 used to be a very strong support and battle ground before it goes down. So there are always good places to buy while you sell buddy.

Trade with the market and don't dream anything else matey. Don't tell me you won't be trading until 1.2625??
Hey! Just woken up? :thumbs:

Quoting jonahky7
Huhh lol...........you have a very big gap from 1.2836 to 1.2625 - wow!!!! Who will be trading there? There are still supports along the way before .26 buddy - so don't predict just trade accordingly buddy.

Who says we can't buy - I bought at .2827 x10 and close at .2840 for a 130pips equivalent profit. Y I bought at that level? 1.282/33 used to be a very strong support and battle ground before it goes down. So there are always good places to buy while you sell buddy.

Trade with the market and don't dream anything else matey. Don't tell me...
No, I won't tell you that, but I did decide not to short at the relevant time, only to under-estimate the strength of feeling over Greece and etc.

I'm glad you made a few pips in the long direction. You just can't beat living dangerously
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
That's the game of forex, if you know where and when to trade - you get the pips, otherwise you will be sitting on the sideline wishing u had gone into a trade and won.

The rules for the RS lines are closely knitted, so if you know where they are - you are more than half way there buddy.

I can backtrace and come out with all the crap reasons why it rises or sinks but its a question do you dare to jump onto the rail and brave against the coming train??????
Some days I remember the blisters on my fingers.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
I think that Greece will not leave the euro because the French and German banks would go bankrupt...
Quoting Exodus
Some days I remember the blisters on my fingers.
I had my 38pips lost in the land of 1.296 few months back but it's now all revenged for - manyfolds.

It's still good time to trade (ie short) buddy, just watch out what Hollande and Merkel will fart tomorrow. At the same time, there will be good time to long.

2 talked about option barriers had been broken within a week, so there will be more talks of barrier options just to keep us retail traders away - so trade when the market move
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  • | IP XX.XX.152.101
What's the big deal about Greece leaving? It's like opening a window and letting a fly out of your house.
N letting a swamp of wasps to invade your house - that's the situation with lala land euro
I just read that Greece has some bond redemptions tomorrow and may not have the cash to cover them. Moodys downgrades Italian banks - it's going to be interesting
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
this may be the end of the euro
Greece sold ~1.4bn 3-month bills today @ 4.3%. Also there are two banks airing the possibility that bearish momentum in Eur is waning.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
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  • | IP XX.XX.218.10
gold will become on 1510 very soon.....
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.X.19.72
Gold will go down with the euro, then rocket up in the final throws. There is not enough volume in the paper precious markets at the moment, its too small and the physical market is pathetically small. Wait until the big players ditch the euro one weekend, thats when the fun will start.
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: May 13, 2012 10:56pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 37  /  Views: 11,372