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  • 3 Reasons for the Drop in EUR/USD

    From forexcrunch.com

    Euro/dollar is on the fall. The initial reaction to the mixed Non-Farm Payrolls was a move higher, but this was limited and was followed with a slide. The move then accelerated and EUR/USD already lost one support liine. Here are three reasons for the downfall: A bright side in the Non-Farm Payrolls: The report included a small slide in the unemployment rate to 9%, a drop in U-6 "real unemployment rate to 16.2% and most importantly significant upside revisions to the figures released in August and September, a total of above 100K. This lowers the chances of QE3. Digestion of German economic weakness: German ... (full story)

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  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 9:57am Nov 4, 2011 9:57am
  •  Forexgain
  • Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Sleeping..... | 531 Comments
Since there's no good news for EURO even in G20 meeting today, the big question arises how far will this drop continue... ?
 
 
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:00am Nov 4, 2011 10:00am
  •  clockwork71
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2007 | 1,132 Comments
The real reason for the drop in the EUR.......it's a broken model.
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:01am Nov 4, 2011 10:01am
  •  Yohay
  • Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 159 Comments
As 1.3725 comes under attack now, stronger support is at 1.3650. This is busy Friday at the end of a busy week...
 
 
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:13am Nov 4, 2011 10:13am
  •  bballfan31
  • | Joined Nov 2005 | Status: I Love my PIPS | 2 Comments
Not to mention the rate cut yesterday which should have tanked this thing at least for awhile
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:14am Nov 4, 2011 10:14am
  •  vahid455
  • | Joined May 2008 | Status: Member | 21 Comments
1.3715 and up
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:17am Nov 4, 2011 10:17am
  •  vahid455
  • | Joined May 2008 | Status: Member | 21 Comments
The number will stop at 1.3715. Rises to 1.3750.
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:19am Nov 4, 2011 10:19am
  •  nyfx718
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Member | 14 Comments
and then short the hell out of it from 3750?
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:26am Nov 4, 2011 10:26am
  •  aboroy
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Member | 15 Comments
if it break the 1.372 then it will keep sinking till 1.36.., but i think the resistant line now is 372 is strong enough to hold
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:28am Nov 4, 2011 10:28am
  •  Sanguis
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Member | 2,845 Comments
Short is closed. The evening one vote and the weekly closing clatter may stir.
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:37am Nov 4, 2011 10:37am
  •  Dr.Zain
  • Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Member | 1,471 Comments
Yohay i love to read your comments keep it up please
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:46am Nov 4, 2011 10:46am
  •  vahid455
  • | Joined May 2008 | Status: Member | 21 Comments
Waiting to move up to 1.3750
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:47am Nov 4, 2011 10:47am
  •  kimis
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Member | 6 Comments
3 reasons to go up:
1. to many persons are talking about falling
2. to many persons are writing about falling
3. to many persons are thinking about falling
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:51am Nov 4, 2011 10:51am
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.213.181
hehe...yes, I agree with kimis at the end of the day, there will be no short market here. Don't forget who are on the long side of the EUR...
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:53am Nov 4, 2011 10:53am
  •  vahid455
  • | Joined May 2008 | Status: Member | 21 Comments
One reason for the rise
1.RSI in Time frame 15 minutes
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:03am Nov 4, 2011 11:03am
  •  Sanguis
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Member | 2,845 Comments
BULLET: EURO-DOLLAR: Saw slight bounce off lows near $1.3710.
04-nov.-2011
EURO-DOLLAR: Saw slight bounce off lows near $1.3710 and gains seen to
$1.3735 area against backdrop that mentions ECB buys of Italian bonds
seen, after reports that yields surged to new record. Euro last $1.3730
with bids ahead of $1.3700 and flows described as very light, mostly
just fast money players involved.
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:23am Nov 4, 2011 11:23am
  •  Noname
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2010 | 1 Comment
the reason behind the EUR/USd drop is the pattern--nothing more or nothing less--look at the four hour--news is bologna--don't fall into that trap
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:35am Nov 4, 2011 11:35am
  •  Sanguis
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Member | 2,845 Comments
BULLET: EURO-DOLLAR: Trader chatter backfilling some of the..
04-nov.-2011
EURO-DOLLAR: Trader chatter backfilling some of the price action in this
pair and suggesting that a Dutch bank was a hefty buyer of euros earlier
in the day, allowing the prints into the high, but as soon as that flow
was completed, euro turned around and tracked lower, driven in part by
the various remarks from G20, including Merkel's mention that few G20
members had committed to buy EFSF bonds. Chatter suggesting that hefty
euro sales were seen at the ECB fixing and they say similar flows may be
seen at the upcoming London fixing event. Euro last at $1.37373, closer
to the low end of the day's range.
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:57am Nov 4, 2011 11:57am
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.24.191
Quoting Noname
Disliked
the reason behind the EUR/USd drop is the pattern--nothing more or nothing less--look at the four hour--news is bologna--don't fall into that trap
Ignored
yeah! u right, dont trust most of action then fall into that trap!
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:59am Nov 4, 2011 11:59am
  •  turanius
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Senior Asset Manager | 329 Comments
The EUR/USD would drop like a stone by now if some MORRONS would not say "We have in the US horrible slow growth" almost instantly aas soon as the Jobless rate been made public with drop to 9.0% from 9.1%, as if they want to keep people pessimistic and despite one good economic number after another, after even decrease of the interest rates in Euro zone!!!
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 12:05pm Nov 4, 2011 12:05pm
  •  Sanguis
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Member | 2,845 Comments
EURO-DOLLAR: Sees lift to $1.3755 area as traders....
04-nov.-2011
EURO-DOLLAR: Sees lift to $1.3755 area as traders shrug off the chatter
of LHS interest for the upcoming London fixing, the pair squeezing any
anticipatory shorts set ahead. Pair likely to find resistance at
$1.3780/85 area of broken support.
 
 
  • Post #21
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 12:32pm Nov 4, 2011 12:32pm
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.8.156
EUR will have another shot to 1.4xxx next week. G20 told the world printing money isn't a problem. It's basically telling the market, buy when it's still cheap. EUR's bull is still standing firm even with the rate cut, it signals the bull will charge again.
 
 
  • Post #22
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 1:43pm Nov 4, 2011 1:43pm
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.2.130
counter logic rules :/ hold on to your pants we're going for a ride to 1.45
 
 
  • Post #23
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 1:44pm Nov 4, 2011 1:44pm
  •  tranco
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 526 Comments
I am not sure
1.Fundamentally the “Feelings” are mix for the unemployment’s.
2.Greece today will past the hair cut .
So there is not reason for a move lower

Technically there it can bee a move down but how deep this move it will bee it
depends from the thrust to the opposite direction first (north)
By compare past data (patterns) Euros’ last move to the direction of the trend (wave 5) 80% of the time expands at max100% from the bottom of the thrust
My scenario is
Euro first must reach the areas of 1.3940 before turn south again to the areas of 13500 (61,8% Fib from previous move plus 100% expansion of the present move )
http://imtp.me/25ww01ew0.p
 
 
  • Post #24
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 2:36pm Nov 4, 2011 2:36pm
  •  Loadedgun
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2010 | 3,678 Comments
The real reason why the Euro fell is that big money sold (for whatever reason or combination of reasons) and we followed (some on time others off time and still others against time) and then when big money decided to buy at the bottom having made money down - we did the same thing the same way. That is the real reason for anything that happens in forex or any other market - money talks and bs...
 
 
  • Post #25
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 2:46pm Nov 4, 2011 2:46pm
  •  Loadedgun
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2010 | 3,678 Comments
BTW did you all hear Ms. Merkel? She said the Greek PM is not the problem any longer, the problem is that there is not a single buyer of EFSF bunds or bonds or whatever in BUCK town - now is that not something? If reasons have a place should the Euro not be tending towards zero at this time? Well is that not proof? In this case big money is still counting today's rake in - up and down. Monday may be big money will decide how to confuse the rest of us very reasonable traders, twist us about and rake in more.
 
 
  • Post #26
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:48pm Nov 4, 2011 3:48pm
  •  hadi_20
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Member | 2 Comments
Quoting vahid455
Disliked
Waiting to move up to 1.3750
Ignored
how you know that?
 
 
  • Post #27
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:50pm Nov 4, 2011 3:50pm
  •  davidwilk
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Member | 21 Comments
Yes, China and Japan turned down EFSF. With only a 25% guarantee on the money, would you take that bet? I wouldn't and neither are they. The Euro Zone does not want to put up any of their own money either. So they will watch Greece default, this will affect Italy, Spain, and Belgium. If they can't/won't print enough money to keep it afloat, there is a chance that the euro will be in serious trouble by January. With the US economy starting to pick up a bit, the Euro will probably begin a gradual, if rocky slide down for the next 3 months.
 
 
  • Post #28
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:20pm Nov 4, 2011 4:20pm
  •  Mike Haran
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2010 | 699 Comments
The eur fell because it was following its cycle, I posted this on forexfactory the other day even with a line where I thought the correction would end and the price levels.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08462&page=203

My little red line was one barout, don't try to kid yourself with news these markets are following their own path thats why the politician can't control them, think of the USDJPY no matter what the BOJ do no one buys till the cycle changes.
 
 
  • Post #29
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:54pm Nov 4, 2011 4:54pm
  •  tranco
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 526 Comments
Interesting way of approaching the market
I all ways thought that's something magical
about it ( I mean trading)
I get some tea leaves that turned Yellow
that's a sign that Euro will decline??
 
 
  • Post #30
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 5:46pm Nov 4, 2011 5:46pm
  •  aboroy
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Member | 15 Comments
well stop all your thinking phenomena, euro will reach the 1.38.. and then sink back to 1.36.. till the Eu will settle down an agreement for greece , didnt you see that in the chart. well its better to trace down the movement rathar than just taking notes
 
 
  • Post #31
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 6:36pm Nov 4, 2011 6:36pm
  •  Mike Haran
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2010 | 699 Comments
tranco don't mock what you don't understand. If my dog pissed on a tree I would use it as a signal if it worked. You stick to your leaf in the tea mate, if it make you happy.
 
 
  • Post #32
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 7:31pm Nov 4, 2011 7:31pm
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.193.26
Does not matter which way it goes. Just follow the path.LOL
 
 
  • Post #33
  • Quote
  • Nov 5, 2011 8:11am Nov 5, 2011 8:11am
  •  tranco
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 526 Comments
Quoting Mike Haran
Disliked
tranco don't mock what you don't understand. If my dog pissed on a tree I would use it as a signal if it worked. You stick to your leaf in the tea mate, if it make you happy.
Ignored
You are right !!
my apologies !!
 
 
  • Post #34
  • Quote
  • Nov 5, 2011 9:16am Nov 5, 2011 9:16am
  •  cristmaster
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Member | 584 Comments
Im a fan of sell but Friday eurousd cant pass a strong line so thats mean the max of 3 nov can take it or more so the govern of GRECE pass all indicators show me will be a megabuy .I trade in real so i watch the news so all of thaem show me will be a buy i estimate 300 pibs and after will be a megasell
 
 
  •  Guest
  • | IP X.XXX.140.84
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Nov 4, 2011 9:44am
  • Submitted by:
     Yohay
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 34  /  Views: 9,239
  • Linked events:
    USD Unemployment Rate
    USD Non-Farm Employment Change
    EUR German Factory Orders m/m
    All G20 Meetings
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