Analysts split on Fed path after June hold, with December hike odds near 50%

The Federal Reserve's latest "dot plot," outlining policymakers' interest rate projections, revealed a sharp shift in central bankers' expectations. Not only are rate cuts almost surely off the table for the rest of the year, but there is also a sharply higher chance of a hike before the end of 2026. Nine policymakers who participated in the exercise ...

At its meeting ending on 17 June 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7–2 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Two members voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%. Global energy prices have fallen since the previous meeting in response to events in the Middle East. But they remain higher than pre-conflict and have continued to be volatile. The impact of the energy shock on the UK economy remains uncertain. Monetary policy cannot influence energy prices but is being set to ensure that the economic adjustment to them occurs in a way that achieves the 2% inflation target sustainably. The policy stance required to achieve this will depend on the scale and duration of the shock, and how it propagates through the economy. CPI inflation has fallen to 2.8% since the previous meeting, although it is expected to rise later this year as the effects of higher energy prices continue to pass through. The risk of material second-round effects in price and wage-setting, against which policy needs to lean, is greater the longer higher energy prices persist. But the labour market continues to loosen, and signs of a weakening economy could contain inflationary pressures. Interest rates faced by households and businesses remain higher than prior to the conflict, which will act to reduce inflation over time. Taking all the risks to the economic outlook into account, the Committee judges that it is appropriate to maintain Bank Rate at this meeting. The Committee will continue to monitor closely the situation in the Middle East and how its impact propagates through the economy. The Committee stands ready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to m BAILEY: PRESSURES FROM IRAN WAR STILL IN PIPELINE DESPITE TRUCE BOE KEEPS GUIDANCE THAT IT 'STANDS READY TO ACT' ON INFLATION BANK OF ENGLAND HOLDS KEY INTEREST RATE AT 3.75% IN 7-2 VOTE BOE BREEDEN: CHANCE OF MATERIAL 2ND-ROUND EFFECTS IS SMALL BOE'S BAILEY, BREEDEN, BREEDEN AND LOMBARDELLI: WOULD RESPOND QUICKLY TO SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS BOE'S GREENE: RATE HIKE VOTE IS INSURANCE AGAINST LARGER SECOND-ROUND INFLATION EFFECTS

The Federal Reserve and Chairman Kevin Warsh on Wednesday followed the script on interest rates closely, voting to keep the benchmark level steady, but dropped several surprises that kept markets guessing about where things are heading. Markets didn’t like it, with major averages swooning after the meeting and as Warsh spoke in his news conference. Here are ...