Warsh’s Concerning Interest In Redefining “Inflation”

Economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace for ten of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while one District reported a slight decline and one reported no change. Consumer spending remained mixed across Districts and increasingly bifurcated across income groups amid affordability pressures. Higher-income households remained resilient and less sensitive to price increase, while middle-income households were described as “squeezing more life out of every dollar before deciding to spend it,” and low-income consumers showed greater financial strain. Overall, there were reports of increased credit card usage, fewer retail visits, and stronger demand for necessities. Auto dealers reported softer new vehicle demand tied to affordability and fuel costs, alongside substitution toward used and hybrid vehicles. By contrast, manufacturing activity increased at a modest to strong pace for nine of the Districts and only one noted a slight decline from the previous period. Banking conditions were stable across most Districts; however, residential mortgages, consumer, and agricultural loan delinquencies were noted as rising in several of the Districts. Agriculture conditions were unchanged or declined for most of the Districts, with cost pressures intensifying from fuel and fertilizer spikes. Energy activity increased in two of the markets, but Districts reported that the outlook remains highly uncertain leading producers to hold off on materially expanding activity. More broadly, business outlooks for the next six months were reported to have little change in anticipated growth, as elevated uncertainty and signs of weakening consumer spending weighed on sentiment. FED BEIGE BOOK: U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY EXPANDED AT A SLIGHT TO MODERATE PACE ACROSS MOST FED DISTRICTS, THOUGH ELEVATED UNCERTAINTY AND SIGNS OF SOFTENING CONSUMER SPENDING CONTINUED TO WEIGH ON BUSINESS SENTIMENT. FED BEIGE BOOK: INFLATION PRESSURES STRENGTHENED, WITH MOST DISTRICTS REPORTING HIGHER PRICE GROWTH THAN IN THE PRIOR REPORT, WHILE EMPLOYMENT REMAINED LARGELY FLAT ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

Iran Outlines 4-Stage Deal Plan With US - Fars pic.twitter.com/Rlhih5wAuG IRAN'S FARS NEWS AGENCY CITING MEMBER OF MEDIA TEAM IN TEHRAN'S NEGOTIATING TEAM: TALKS ARE STILL ONGOING, AND NO FINAL DECISION HAS BEEN MADE The reason that the first phase of the Islamabad talks were not successful is Iran's refusal to enter into nuclear negotiations - Iran's Fars, citing a member of the media team in Tehran's negotiating team We will not enter into an agreement in which Lebanon is ignored - Iran's Fars, citing a member of the media team in the Tehran negotiating team

*ARAGHCHI SAYS NO TANGIBLE PROGRESS MADE IN US TALKS: TASNIM Iran's Foreign Minister: Our contacts with the US have not been cut off, but no progress has been made in negotiations - Al Mayadeen. IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER ARAGHCHI: RETURNING TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE IS CONDITIONAL UPON SECURING THE RIGHTS OF THE IRANIAN PEOPLE, ENDING THE CONFLICT IN LEBANON, AND HALTING TENSIONS IN THE REGION